The Los Angeles Lakers entered this series as underdogs in both of the first two games, without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, against a Houston team that finished the regular season with a top-five defense and a +5.4 net rating. They won both games anyway.

The reason the Lakers are up 2-0 is largely due to none other than 41-year old LeBron James. He led the team in points, rebounds, and assists in Game 2, finishing with 28, 8, and 7 while shooting efficiently at every level of the court. His assist-to-usage ratio ranks in the 100th percentile among forwards. His finishing rate at the rim sits in the 92nd percentile. LeBron is reminding everyone watching that he’s still got it.

The supporting cast has risen to the moment around him. Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard combined for 48 points in Game 2, with Kennard benefiting directly from LeBron's ability to collapse Houston's defense and find shooters on the perimeter. The Lakers rank second in the NBA in effective field goal percentage, and in Game 2 they outshot a Houston team that took 17 more attempts. The Rockets are a running one of the slowest offenses in the league and inadvertently playing a half-court style that suits Los Angeles perfectly. The Lakers rank second in the NBA in half-court efficiency.

Game 3 is in Houston tonight, where the Rockets have been formidable all season, and the 9.5-point spread reflects an expectation that Houston will reassert themselves at home. That’s a reasonable assumption. Road teams in the playoffs frequently give one back when the crowd is involved and the opponent makes adjustments. A 10-point victory sounds like a tough ask to me though.

The series price is the more interesting conversation. The Lakers are -135 to win the series while leading two games to none. Historically, that number is significantly below where a 2-0 lead should be. The market is clearly pricing in a full Houston comeback, which requires winning four of five remaining games including at least one in Los Angeles.

Whether the Rockets can make the comeback remains to be seen. What is not uncertain is that LeBron James is playing like someone who intends to fight for every moment of every game, rallying his team around him in the process.

🏆️ First basket props hit different in the playoffs

The stakes are higher, the rotations tighter, and the right read can cash big. Don't guess. Use the data.

Pine's First Basket Sheet gives you everything you need before tipoff:

Tip Win % – See which teams control the opening possession
1st FG Attempt % – Know who's getting the first look
1st FG Made % – Track who actually converts when it matters

🏀 Friday Night NBA Player Props

The biggest story Friday is Game 3 between Portland and San Antonio, most likely without Victor Wembanyama, and we used Jaxon to pull the Spurs' data to understand exactly what his absence means for the game.

The numbers are stark. San Antonio's defensive rating jumps from 111.05 with Wembanyama on the floor to 117.10 without him, a six-point swing that moves their defense from elite to bottom third of the league. The pace of the game also accelerates, which creates more transition opportunities and more open looks for Portland's primary scorers.

So who should we look towards for props in Game 3 if Wemby is out?

Deni Avdija Over 23.5 Points (-105)

Avdija is the direct beneficiary of Wembanyama's absence. He has been playing at an All-Star level regardless, averaging 29.0 points over his last five games and 27.4 over his last ten, both well above this line.

Against San Antonio this season, he has averaged 27.8 points and hit this over in 80% of their meetings. His finishing rate at the rim sits in the 90th percentile for forwards, and with Wembanyama's 3.5 blocks per game removed from the equation, Avdija can attack the paint without the league's most dominant shot-altering presence waiting for him. This is one of the sharpest playoff props on the board Friday.

Shifting to the Eastern Conference, Boston and Philadelphia play Game 3 in Philly tonight, and both sides of this series offer three-point props worth backing. We ran the perimeter matchup data through Jaxon and surfaced two names on opposite sides.

Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)

Boston attempts the fourth most threes in the league and shoots 42.4% from the corners. Brown has averaged 2.6 makes over his last five games and 2.5 over his last ten, both significantly above this line. Against Philadelphia specifically this season, he hit the over in five of six meetings while averaging 2.67 makes per game.

The 76ers rank 18th against wing shooters from deep and struggle particularly when Boston's spacing collapses the defense onto Tatum, leaving Brown open in the corner where he shoots 39%. The line of 1.5 is notably lower than his recent output. Take it.

Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-145)

Maxey averaged 4.0 made threes per game against Boston this season across six meetings, hitting this line in five of them. He is returning home to Philadelphia where he covers this prop at a 61% rate.

Boston ranks 22nd defending point guards from three, and Maxey's transition pull-ups and quick-release deep ball are the specific shots that defense has struggled with all year. Maxey has been a consistent Celtics killer from deep. Don’t overthink it.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Vegas has it’s franchise quarterback. The rest of the first round gave some surprises.

🏀 The likely No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA Draft just made it official. Get familiar with him before draft night. 

🙈 Another day, another football coach making headlines. This Super Bowl winner is in the news for the wrong reasons.

⚾️ Eight years, 278 games, and an international journey. This 30-year-old could make his MLB debut. 

⚽️ Stuttgart survived 119 minutes of agony to make a cup final. They’ll have to beat the league champions for the final reward.

🏒 McDavid Is Pointless, And That's Your Edge

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

No Stanley Cup Playoff series has wrapped up yet, so it’s hard to say what the biggest storyline has been.  It could be the Flyers’ 3-0 series on the Pens or Colorado’s Martin Necas becoming the unheralded spark that could make the Avalanche unbeatable.  

But, there’s one shocker that I still can’t believe is happening through two games:

Connor McDavid Doesn’t Have a Point!

It’s not like Edmonton hasn’t been scoring.  They have eight goals in two games! Leon Draisaitl has four points already.  

The problem is McDavid has generated just one high-danger shot on goal against Anaheim.  During the regular season he had 120 of them, second-most in the NHL.

McDavid does his biggest damage on breakaways and special teams.  While neither have panned out so far, you’d expect head coach Kris Knoblauch and company to adjust and make the greatest skater on the planet even more of an unstoppable force.

Will It Happen in Game 3?

Even though the series is shifting to Anaheim, the Ducks have allowed many high-danger chances this season.  Money Puck has them allowing the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes in the league.  The Ducks win games by outscoring the competition.

Connor McDavid is -700 to record at least one point, and +105 for a goal on FanDuel.  The market thinks he’s due.  Many Oiler fans probably think he’s due.  That’s bad value.  Here’s how Jaxon and I recommend playing it:

Oilers ML and McDavid 1+ Goals Same Game Parlay vs Ducks (+190)

With the firepower on both sides, it’s safe to assume every game in this series will be high scoring.  And, nothing against Draisaitl, but it’s hard to imagine Edmonton winning again without McDavid playing a role, so there’s value in this same game parlay.

Something else due for positive regression is Edmonton’s special teams.  Despite 11 shots on goal on the man advantage, they have no goals to show for it.  Conversion rate isn’t a sticky statistic, meaning you can’t reliably expect a conversion rate to remain consistent from one game to the next.  The Oilers have a history of being successful with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice simultaneously.

This SGP is correlated and has value.

As for the other prop bets happening during Friday’s playoff games:

Jake Guentzel (Lightning) O1.5 Points (+265)

Sticking with the special teams theme, Jake Guentzel’s on-ice time of 315 minutes on the man advantage this season ranks third among all skaters in the NHL:

Montreal has been among the most penalized teams in the league, averaging more than 10 minutes on the penalty kill per contest.  Assuming these opportunities persist, Guentzel can rack up a couple of points.

🎯 Still betting on gut feelings?

There's a better way. Ask Jaxon about tonight's matchups, check the prop sheets for edges, or let the Parlay Generator do the heavy lifting. Whatever you need — Pine Sports has it.

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