We're past the July 4th holiday and the All-Star break is right around the corner, which means it's a good time to take stock of where the season stands.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the story of the National League, again. They’re the first team to reach 60 wins this year and currently hold a 14.5-game lead in the NL West, the largest cushion of any division leader.

Milwaukee has been the National League surprise, with a pitching staff that has been historic. Jacob Misiorowski leads the majors with a 1.62 ERA, 167 strikeouts, a 0.76 WHIP, and a 13.54 strikeouts-per-nine rate. He’s the runaway NL Cy Young frontrunner at the moment. Aaron Ashby has been nearly as good, leading the league with 12 wins and giving Milwaukee one of the most lethal top-two rotations in memory.

The American League has been defined by parity. Tampa Bay leads the AL East at 53-36 with the Yankees 4 games back. Both the AL Central and AL West are wide open. No team in either division is more than four games over .500. A couple months from now, every night will feel like a must-win in those races.

On the individual side, Kyle Schwarber leads the majors with 31 home runs. Yordan Alvarez is the AL MVP favorite with a 1.041 OPS, 29 home runs, and 67 RBIs. James Wood of Washington has been the most electric young player in the sport, leading baseball with 83 runs scored, 19 more than anyone else.

While the All-Star Game next week no longer determines World Series home-field advantage, the game now carries a prize pool of $800,000 split among players on the winning side, plus contract bonuses for many of the participants. If nothing else, it’s the last sign to stop for snacks and gas before the final stretch to playoffs.

⚾ Home Run Cheat Sheet

Pine’s Home Run Sheet gives you everything you need to pick tonight’s home run hitters:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's HR projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has gone deep over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

⚾️ Vulnerable Pitchers and Park Factors

Several pitchers could be in a world of hurt today, including a 2022 first round draft pick making his first career start in the majors against baseball’s best.

Cubs at Orioles

Camden Yards ranks second overall in offensive park factors today, with a 106 runs factor and a 109 home run factor. The pitching matchup makes it even more appealing. Dean Kremer has been shredded by several Cubs hitters including Michael Conforto, who is hitting .750 against him with a home run, Ian Happ at .667 with a home run, and Michael Busch with a home run of his own in 3 at-bats.

On the other side, Colin Rea has a 29.3% strikeout rate against Orioles hitters, but Gunnar Henderson is hitting .400 against him in 5 career at-bats. Henderson and Pete Alonso both bring elite power into a stadium that rewards it and both starting pitchers are vulnerable to today's lineups.

Astros at Nationals

Washington games are averaging 10.69 total runs per game this season, the highest of any team involved in today's slate. The Nationals lead the majors in runs scored at 5.38 per game and also allow over five runs per game themselves. Nationals Park ranks in the top five for offensive production this year, boosting both runs and hits by 4% above league average.

The pitching angle here is the lack of familiarity on both sides. Spencer Arrighetti has minimal history against Washington's lineup, and Foster Griffin has never faced this Astros roster. Houston's right-handed power hitters do well against left-handed pitching, and with no history to draw from, Griffin could be in for a difficult first inning.

Rockies at Dodgers

Dodger Stadium carries the highest home run park factor on today's entire slate at 127, 27% above league average. Colorado is sending Gabriel Hughes to the mound for the first career start of his professional life. I guess it can only go up after debuting against the best team in baseball, right?

Colorado already allows a league-worst 10.08 hits per game, and the Dodgers are among the most prolific contact teams in baseball at their own park. Hughes's inexperience combined with that defensive context makes Los Angeles the most lopsided offensive environment on the board today.

At this moment, every single player in the Dodgers lineup is minus-odds to cash at least 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs tonight. Good luck, Gabriel.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤯 Formula 1 performance but without the regulatory limits. Here is the debut of the new Red Bull “RB17” hypercar.

💸 Anaheim should say goodbye to their young star. He’s about to be someone else’s highest paid player.

♻️ Good luck sorting this one out. Six teams are coming together with an elaborate trade deal. 

⛳️ Always make sure you read the fine print. That’s how a LIV golfer was allowed to join upcoming PGA event.

🏈 Sean Payton was ready to risk everything last season. We’ll never know what could have been if his team followed orders.

⚽️ Seven Games Left, Zero Room for Error

This World Cup continues to take it up a notch, over and over. The Mexico/England battle on Sunday was hands down the game of the tournament, but did not hold that title for even 48 hours. We witnessed one of the all-time greatest comebacks in the sport yesterday between Egypt and Argentina. We’re beyond spoiled if we see another performance top that.

After a day off today, our first day without soccer since the tournament began, the first of seven remaining games will kick off between France and Morocco. This is a rematch of the 2022 semifinal which France won 2-0 to punch their ticket into the finals. A similar result, or even tighter, is expected this time around.

France has been the most clinical team in the tournament. Fourteen goals scored and only two conceded across five matches, a goal differential that no other side can match at this stage. Their transition speed from defensive shape to attacking threat makes them difficult to prepare for, and their wingers have consistently exposed teams that commit numbers forward.

Morocco's identity is the opposite. They've conceded just four goals in the tournament, held both the Netherlands and Brazil to draws in regulation, and have built their entire campaign around a compact mid-block that forces opponents to work the ball around the perimeter without space between the lines.

Morocco will not abandon the defensive structure that carried them here, and France historically becomes more pragmatic in knockout football rather than chasing the kind of high-scoring performances they're capable of. A low scoring match is the most likely outcome.

Morocco +1.0 is the other angle worth considering. In their recent competitive history, Morocco has not lost by more than a single goal regardless of the opponent. This line gives you a push if France wins by one and a win if Morocco draws in 90 or advances. Given how difficult this team is to break down, this still offers reasonable value.

With only 7 games left in the summer, savor these quarterfinal matches!

🤔 Still not sure what to bet on?

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