Philadelphia has officially built a starting five that looks concerning in more ways than one. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown now sit alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe. The collective resume is hard to match anywhere else in the league but the math doesn’t entirely add up.

The additions of Jaylen Brown and LeBron bring in two of the top players in usage rate from last season. Brown led every wing in the league at 35.1% usage while scoring 28.7 points per game. Embiid sat at 33.6% usage but only played 38 games. Maxey put up 28.6 points per game on 30.4% usage. LeBron ran an offense at 26.2% usage. Somebody will have to eat less in this lineup.

Spacing is the other wrinkle. The Sixers finished 23rd in three point percentage at 35.3% and 22nd in makes, and this group doesn’t fix the problem. Maxey is the steadiest option at 37%. Brown hit 35% but lives in the midrange. LeBron dipped to 31.7% after two seasons near 40. Expect a heavy diet of pull ups and free throws, with Jaylen Brown leading in trips to the line.

Defensively the pieces fit. Maxey graded in the 100th percentile among point guards in both steals and blocks. Brown is a monster on the wing glass for a team that ranked 26th in defensive rebound rate. Embiid can protect the rim as well as anyone, provided he’s on the court.

The division odds already steamed from +450 to +220, and the win total sits at 50.5 with the Over at even money. Philly won 45 games last year while getting only 38 out of Embiid. Sixty games from him closes that gap by itself. That being said, it may not be worth buying into the hype at the current prices. A cautious approach to a 42 year old team leader and a fragile center is recommended.

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⚾️ Run Totals Going Over Across the League

Three spots on tonight's board look built for runs based on park factors and pitcher matchups.

Start in Washington, where the total score line sits at 10 runs tonight. Nationals Park grades sixth in baseball for overall offense, pushing runs and hits up 4% each and cutting strikeouts by 7% compared to other parks.

Toronto hands the ball to Max Scherzer, who carries a 10.23 ERA with 3.7 homers and 4.5 walks per nine across limited work this year. He’s only had one appearance since April, giving up 5 earned runs in 3.1 innings against the Phillies in June. He walks into a Nationals lineup that leads the MLB with 5.5 runs per game. Luis Garcia Jr. has taken Scherzer deep twice in 11 career appearances against him and has 21 homers this season.

Pittsburgh is the second look, with a total score line at 9 and over odds of -105. The Pirates score nearly 5.6 runs per game at home, best in the league. Merrill Kelly arrives in Pittsburgh with a 5.12 ERA and 1.9 homers per nine, the fourth highest home run total allowed in the majors. Mitch Keller sits at 4.90 ERA on the other side.

PNC ranks 13th overall in park factors and leans mildly toward hits and runs. Arizona is only 18th scoring on the road at 4.3, which is the one thing keeping this from the top slot. Conditions favor the bats in Pittsburgh tonight and we should see plenty of runs against these two pitching staffs.

More games go over their total runs line in Sacramento this season than anywhere else (66.7%) and tonight the total is set at 9.5 runs. Jack Perkins owns a 6.75 ERA with 1.6 homers per nine, and behind him waits the worst bullpen in baseball. Boston averages 4.6 runs on the road and should score above their average.

Back the over in these three games tonight.

🌲 The Pine Line

👑 The “last decision”. The King signs a 2-year, $8 million deal for one last shot at a title.

🔥 The Brewers ace is quickly becoming the most electric arm in baseball. The new franchise record isn’t even the craziest part.

📤️ From Stanley Cup Finals to the job board. Where will this disappointed coach end up next?

⛳️ The PGA has provided some wild results this season. A 21-year old just outplayed the world’s number one golfer.

🤕 A small Italian club is starting a movement. The world’s game needs to protect young players.

🔥 Home Run Fireworks Tonight

With the run scoring expectations set, we have two bats worth backing to hit a home run tonight.

➡️ Luis Garcia Jr. Home Run Stats

Start with Luis Garcia Jr. in Washington. Eleven plate appearances against Max Scherzer and he’s recorded six hits with two homers for a .545 average and a slugging mark north of 1.000. He has gone deep in 20% of his last 20 games, and across 98 games this season he is homering at a 17.35% clip.

Nationals Park cooperates too, sitting sixth in baseball overall with a 103 home run factor, a 104 mark for runs and hits, and a 93 strikeout factor that keeps balls in play. Toronto's staff has surrendered 115 long balls this year, right around the league midpoint.

➡️ Eugenio Suarez Home Run Stats

Eugenio Suarez’s home run rate this season is 16.22%, but he has hit five homers in his last ten games and six across his last fifteen. At home he climbs to a 21.05% hit rate which makes sense since Great American ranks fifth overall but first in home run factor at a wild 118, while boosting walks 9% and runs 4%.

Slade Cecconi has held the current Reds roster to a .235 average but has already given up a homer to Suarez in his 12 career plate appearances. Suarez has a .333 average and .548 wOBA in the matchup. A 90th percentile barrel rate paired with a 93rd percentile launch angle is the combination you want at +468.

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