Coach of the Year doesn’t just go to the one with the best record, it goes to the coach that has the most success with the least amount of roster talent. Halfway through the season, nobody fits that description better than Todd Monken.

On paper, the Browns have no business being 5-4 and in a playoff spot. They rank 25th in total DVOA, carry a -35 point differential (24th) and have the 29th-ranked offense. Deshaun Watson’s 40.9 QBR is 28th out of 31 qualified passers. Cleveland is the second-youngest team in the league, is leaning on rookie receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion, and traded away its future Hall of Fame defensive end. Yet the Browns have already matched last season’s win total, thanks to five game-winning drives.

Monken has found a formula that works for this roster: lean on a solid defense (13th in DVOA), keep games close and find a way to win late. With five of their last eight to be played at home, a playoff spot is realistic. If Cleveland gets in, I think the award is his.

Liam Coen is the other name to watch. Jacksonville is 6-2 and leads the NFL in total DVOA (35.8%) and point differential (+108). The Jaguars rank 3rd on defense and 6th on offense, and four of their six wins have come by 23 points or more. Coen has gotten the best out of Trevor Lawrence and built a defense that overwhelms people.

The problem is that voters tend to reward overachievers, and the Jaguars are playing right at their talent level. The same could be said for Shanahan’s 49ers. The Jags also have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league, so a strong finish might get credited to the slate instead of the coach. Still, if the Browns fade, Coen is my next pick.

Both coaches are trading at just 8% on Kalshi, behind Shanahan (30%), Harbaugh (23%) and Johnson (16%). If either one ends up taking home the award, you’ll be glad you got in now.

🏈 Anytime TD Cheat Sheet  

Pine's Anytime TD Sheet gives you everything you need to predict this weekend’s touchdown scorers:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has found the end zone over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🔥 Weak Defenses, Strong Plays: Sunday’s Top Player Props

This week’s slate has a quarterback facing the worst pass defense in football, a running back who keeps cashing as a check-down option, and a receiver who has made a habit of torching a division rival.

🔥 Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Detroit ranks dead last in both passing yards allowed (305.4 per game) and passing touchdowns allowed (2.25 per game), and its secondary is missing D.J. Reed and Kerby Joseph. It doesn’t get much better than that for the Patriots.

Maye has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of his last six games, averaging 2.8, and he’s accounted for three or more total touchdowns in six straight. New England ranks 4th in yards per attempt (8.36) and 3rd in yards per reception (13.4), so when Maye connects, it’s usually a big play.

The only real concern for New England is the receiving corps, with Romeo Doubs on IR and A.J. Brown questionable, but Brown is trending the right direction and Maye still threw three touchdowns in last week’s blowout loss.

🔥 Jaylen Warren Over 25.5 Receiving Yards

Warren has gone over this number in seven of eight games, averaging 36.8 receiving yards, and he’s a perfect four-for-four on the road. He also posted 49 receiving yards against Cincinnati earlier this season.

The game script should help. If Joe Burrow gets rolling, Pittsburgh will be throwing to keep up, and Warren is the outlet on screens and check-downs. Cincinnati ranks 5th in pressure rate (29.3%), which forces quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly, often to the back. The Bengals also allow 395.6 yards per game (27th) and 6.37 yards per play (29th) so we could be set for a firework show on Sunday.

🔥 Chris Olave Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

The Saints throw a lot (38.5 attempts per game, 4th) but rarely produce big plays, ranking 28th in yards per reception. That puts even more of the passing game on Olave, who’s averaging 91.8 yards per game this season and 100.1 over his last 10, clearing this line in seven of those games.

He’s also gone over in both of his recent games against Carolina, averaging 94.5 yards. The Panthers have their top three cornerbacks on IR and rank 28th in sacks, so Olave should have time to get open all afternoon.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤯 We’ve never seen this stat line in NBA history. The fifty-point double-double isn’t even the best part.

🩼 The initial injury update was encouraging in LA. This star receiver will miss extended time with multiple injuries.

🏀 Two of the biggest names in basketball just backed a new league. The Futures League plans to tip off in April. 

🏈 The Broncos changed the trade terms after a deal was made. Harbaugh wants the league to fix this loophole.

⛷️ Nine surgeries later, the drive is still the same. Vonn just wants to be back on the slopes.  

🏈 Warren vs the League’s Softest Run Defense

Jaylen Warren has only three touchdowns this season. The production has been there all year, the touchdowns haven’t caught up yet, but he’s about to face the worst run defense in football.

Warren has 704 rushing yards (6th among backs) at 5.92 yards per carry, and he ranks 1st at the position in rushing EPA. Over his last three games, he’s piled up 362 rushing yards on 49 carries, a 7.4-yard average, plus 123 receiving yards. He’s also averaging 36.8 receiving yards per game, 2nd among running backs.

Cincinnati allows 5.04 yards per carry, the worst mark in the NFL, and 126.6 rushing yards per game (25th). Pittsburgh doesn’t run often (27th in carries), but when it does, it averages 4.89 yards per carry, 3rd in the league. Warren has also topped 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games against the Bengals.

Even though they allow a lot of yards, Cincinnati tightens up near the goal line. The Bengals allow touchdowns on just 3.42% of opponent plays, 10th-best in the league. Still, a lead back averaging nearly 15 carries and 88 rushing yards per game should get plenty of chances against a defense this soft. The way Warren is playing, he can score from anywhere on the field.

📊 Try the New Odds Mode

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