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- 🏈 A TNF Shootout is Brewing in Buffalo
🏈 A TNF Shootout is Brewing in Buffalo
Two shorthanded secondaries, one high total. Plus, NY football fans haven't seen this happen in 17 years.
Both New York football teams started 1-0 for the first time in seventeen years, and there's reason to believe that it may not stop there.
The Jets beat the Titans behind a clean outing from Geno Smith, who went 19 of 24 with zero turnovers, while the defense held Tennessee to under 200 total yards and sacked Cam Ward three times. The Giants topped Dallas as Jaxson Dart threw three touchdowns in John Harbaugh's debut, with Cam Skattebo running for 84 yards in his return from injury and Isaiah Likely hauling in two scores.
The last time both franchises opened 1-0 was 2009, the same year the Yankees last won the World Series. The bigger drought worth watching, and maybe betting, is the playoffs. These two teams haven't made the postseason in the same year since 2006, and both were bounced in the Wild Card round. Since then, the Jets have gone 15 years without a playoff appearance, the longest active drought in the league, while the Giants have managed just one winning season in nine years.
This year feels different for both. Harbaugh brings a proven track record and a roster stacked with talent to the Giants, and an easier schedule down the stretch gives them a real shot if Dart continues developing. The Jets have a healthy and talented receiving group, a QB in Geno Smith who may not be flashy but can limit mistakes, and promising rookies already making a contribution, though they still have to survive a brutal division with Buffalo and New England both projected to be playoff teams.
If both teams somehow break through, it would be the first shared New York playoff appearance in twenty years. The market currently prices that at just 7%, already cooling off from the 12% spike on Sunday night.
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🏈 Total Score Rising for Thursday Night Football
Two Week 1 winners arrive tonight with obvious strengths and glaring holes, and the matchup sets up as a defenseless slugfest.
Detroit survived an overtime scare against New Orleans, and the tape shows exactly why. Jahmyr Gibbs was a workhorse, piling up 156 yards on 29 carries, and the Lions controlled the clock for nearly 37 minutes behind a rebuilt offensive line that's already moving bodies effectively. The pass rush was equally dominant early, generating five sacks and nearly 30 pressures with Aidan Hutchinson leading the way. But the secondary surrendered 378 net passing yards to a young quarterback, with both starting safeties now on injured reserve.
Buffalo's opener told a similar story. Josh Allen was nearly flawless, throwing for 334 yards and two scores without a turnover while accounting for all four Buffalo touchdowns. The Bills got 100+ yard performances from both Dalton Kincaid and new addition DJ Moore, and the defense forced multiple turnovers late to close out a road win. Still, Houston moved the ball almost at will for most of the game, controlling possession for over 36 minutes and exposing a defense still transitioning to a new scheme under a new coordinator.
Buffalo's questionable cornerback depth runs directly into a Detroit passing attack that should look to attack downfield with the hope that Jameson Williams can bounce back from a rough opener. Meanwhile, Detroit's shorthanded secondary faces a Buffalo offense that just posted nearly 8 yards per play and at times seems unstoppable.
The situational edges lean Buffalo. They're playing a home opener at their new stadium’s debut and they are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, averaging 30.8 points scored and 23.6 allowed. History also favors the under in Buffalo's recent home slate, going under 54.5 in 7 of 10, which goes against the expectations tonight if we see anything like we did last week from these teams.
🌲 The Pine Line
🤯 Verstappen started behind 100 other drivers. The goal was to pass everyone else on the track.
⚾️ Wrigley Field wants their guy to win MVP. He’s making it hard to argue for any other outcome.
🏒 A Vezina trophy winner is looking for a new home. So far, all he has is a suspension.
🔥 Ethan Salas is breaking records with the Padres. He’s the youngest catcher to ever hit like this.
🔥 Player Props Following the Volume
With a total sitting at 54.5 and both defenses showing real cracks, tonight's board is loaded with volume driven angles.
Detroit's tight end coverage got exposed immediately last week, allowing New Orleans tight ends to combine for seven catches and two touchdowns in Week 1. Dalton Knox cleared this number in 16 of 18 games last season, and if Detroit focuses coverage toward Dalton Kincaid after his big opener, Knox becomes the natural release valve. He doesn't need heavy volume here, just a couple solid gains in what should be a high scoring game.
Detroit leans on zone coverage most of the game, and if they shift toward more man to slow down Buffalo's weapons, that opens running lanes for Allen to escape the pocket. One of the bright spots from Detroit’s defense in Week 1 was their pass rush, but unlike Shough, Josh Allen has the experience and ability to escape and move the ball on his own.
Allen went over this line in 5 of 7 games to finish last season, and the last time he faced Detroit he ran it 11 times for two scores. You can still find this line for plus odds on some books.
Detroit is the road underdog against a Bills offense that finished among the league's most efficient units last year and just dropped 36 points on a good Texans defense. If Buffalo jumps ahead, Detroit tilts pass heavy fast, and Goff's accuracy on shorter throws should keep the completions stacking up. The last time he played Buffalo he finished with 38 completions, and he cleared this number in 7 of his last 10 games to finish the 25-26 season. With Detroit's backs and tight ends serving as easy checkdowns, this profiles as a solid trailing team volume bet.
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