🏈 Action-Packed NFL Weekend Starts Tonight

Rookie QB leads 0-4 team into Dallas, Sunday shootouts, and East vs West MNF

Author

Ian Maclin
October 08, 2026

Tampa Bay limps into Dallas tonight at 0-4, without Baker Mayfield, and starting a rookie quarterback on the road for the first time. The Cowboys are a much better team on paper, but they're also one of the strangest.

Dallas ranks sixth in offensive DVOA and dead last on defense. Dak Prescott has thrown just one interception, his line has allowed a sack on only 4% of dropbacks, and the offense has averaged 34 points over the last three weeks, the most in the league. The defense allows 28 points per game, gives up 150.25 rushing yards per game (31st), and has zero interceptions.

Tampa is the inverse. The Bucs own the eighth best defense by DVOA and smother the run, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. That should take Dallas' already shaky ground game off the table. Through the air, it's a different story. Tampa ranks 28th in completion percentage allowed and is now without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and corner Benjamin Morrison.

The biggest problem is the QB situation. Jalon Daniels makes his second career start behind the worst pass protection in the league, with a 12.7% sack rate allowed. Dallas barely gets to the quarterback, but this is the one line it can beat. The Bucs' best path is running the ball against that porous Cowboys front, though an offense that hasn't scored 20 points since Week 1 has little margin for error.

Prediction: Cowboys -8.5

Dallas is 3-1 against the spread and has covered three straight, while Tampa is 0-4 ATS, missing by an average of 6.8 points. The Cowboys turn 81.3% of red zone trips into touchdowns, and against a shorthanded secondary, they should finish enough drives to pull away.

🏈 Anytime TD Cheat Sheet  

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Projections & Odds – Jaxon's TD projection and live over/under odds
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Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

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🔥 Props Built for Close Games on Sunday

The best props come from games that stay close because both offenses can move the ball, not from blowouts where the starters sit by the fourth quarter. This week we have three matchups where each side faces a defense it can exploit, and with spreads tight enough to keep everyone's foot on the gas.

Indianapolis' passing attack is barely functioning. The Colts rank 30th in passing touchdowns, their quarterback carries a 73.9 rating, and Alec Pierce is on IR after a 1,000-yard season last year.

When you can't throw, you hand it to your best player. Taylor ranks fifth in the NFL with 353 rushing yards and has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 20.4 carries. Pittsburgh's run defense isn't a wall either, allowing 4.34 yards per carry and missing tackles at the fourth highest rate in the league. Add rain in the forecast and a Colts team that grinds out drives, and 19.5 carries starts to seem low.

Detroit at Arizona features two of the most generous defenses on the slate, both ranking 30th or worse in DVOA. The Cardinals have been especially kind to passing games, allowing 11 touchdowns through the air (31st) and a league worst 6.74 yards per play. 

LaPorta is third among tight ends with 32 targets and is averaging 5.5 catches per game. He's topped this number in four of his last five games, and he's been even better away from home, averaging seven grabs across both road games this season.

Robinson is coming off 145 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries in Monday's 45-24 rout of New Orleans, and he now sits second in the NFL with 494 rushing yards. Baltimore allows a respectable 3.88 yards per carry, but its run defense ranks 25th in EPA per carry, which tells you it's more vulnerable than the surface numbers show. The Ravens' offense also leads the league at 7.15 yards per play, so Atlanta will need to keep pace, and that means plenty of touches for its best weapon.

The receiving work is what makes this line attractive. Robinson has averaged 151.6 combined yards over his last 10 games, cleared this number in 7 of them, and projects for 132 on Sunday.

 🌲 The Pine Line

⚾️ A fan just cost the Yankees any chance of a comeback. I hope they made it out of the stadium safely.

🏀 Breanna Stewart doesn’t care about her 35-point night. She wants to know why the refs got this wrong.

🐐 There is a new captain in Argentina. The farewell in Buenos Aires was everything the moment deserved.

🏌️ Rahm might finally have a way out. His door back to the PGA could be open soon.

✈️ Buffalo Bills head West on MNF

Monday night in Los Angeles has shootout written all over it. The total line sits at 54, and the last three meetings between these teams averaged nearly 65 combined points, including a 44-42 Rams win in this same building in December 2024.

The matchup is as friendly as it gets. Buffalo's offense leads the NFL in scoring, but its defense ranks 26th in DVOA and allows 291.75 passing yards per game (28th) with 2.5 touchdown passes per game (29th). The Bills have also intercepted just one pass all season. Now their secondary could be even thinner, with corners Christian Benford and Dee Alford questionable and Dorian Strong ruled out.

Los Angeles throws 41.25 times per game, second most in football, and Nacua sits at the center of it. He's drawn 21 targets in two games since returning and announced himself in Week 4 with nine catches for 125 yards against Philadelphia. Sean McVay doesn't just feed him through the air, either. Nacua already has a carry inside the 5 this season, which he punched in for a score. Nacua has found the end zone in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging a touchdown per game in that span.

The one knock on the Rams is finishing. They rank second in total yards but just 19th in scoring, so drives have a habit of stalling. Against a Bills secondary that has been torched all year, Nacua should get his chances.

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