🏈 AFC North Division Lead Is Up for Grabs

TNF player props and one winner-take-all game remaining in the MLB Wild Card round

Author

Ian Maclin
October 01, 2026

Three wild card series are settled, there is one game left to decide the winner between the Phillies and Braves, and both starters are facing lineups that already know them well.

Philadelphia is expected to hand the ball to Aaron Nola, with Zack Wheeler available on short rest. Atlanta tagged Nola for 17 hits, 9 runs, and 4 homers in 18 innings this season, and Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley have combined for 16 career homers off him. He's also coming off a 7-12 season with a 4.67 ERA.

Atlanta's plan isn't much cleaner. Grant Holmes is likely to handle bulk innings, possibly behind an opener. The Phillies hit him hard this year, with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner all going deep.

The bullpens may settle it. Atlanta's late inning trio of Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee, and Raisel Iglesias has pitched in both games, and Lee and Fuentes have each been burned for big hits this series. Philly got three scoreless innings from Andrew Painter in Game 2 and could lean on him again.

Prediction: Braves win. 

Atlanta was the better team all season, ranking eighth in runs and fifth in ERA, and the models still give them a 53.6% edge at home. Philly's bullpen boost is real, but Nola against this lineup is the most lopsided matchup on the field. If Atlanta's big three gets to him early, the Braves can finally snap their six game losing streak in elimination games.

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🧱 Battle in the Trenches on TNF

Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both 2-1, and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the AFC North.

Don't expect fireworks. Both offenses rank in the bottom third by DVOA, and the 38.5 total is the lowest on the Week 4 board. Pittsburgh throws often but completes just 57.4% of its passes (29th) and has yet to score a rushing touchdown. Cleveland's offense is worse, ranking 29th in DVOA and 30th on third down.

The real mismatch lives in the trenches. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in sack rate, while Cleveland's line has allowed sacks on 10.84% of dropbacks, 30th in the league. Now the Browns lose center Elgton Jenkins to concussion protocol, giving T.J. Watt and company a cleaner path to Deshaun Watson.

Cleveland does have history on its side. The Browns have won four straight home games in this head-to-head series. The Steelers have also just agreed to trade their CB Joey Porter Jr, leaving a hole on defense to fill.

Cleveland has struggled with tight ends all year, allowing 6.3 catches and 66 yards per game to the position. Freiermuth has topped 30 yards in all three games this season, averaging 36, and he's averaged 37 in two meetings with the Browns. The projection sits right at the line, but the matchup tips it over.

With Dylan Sampson on IR, Sanders has taken over passing downs behind Quinshon Judkins. He played a season high 42.9% of snaps last week, running 17 routes and catching four passes. Against the league's best pass rush, Watson will need quick outlets, and Sanders is the obvious one.

The rookie first rounder has drawn at least five targets every week, including nine against Carolina. He caught only two of those, which is exactly why this line looks soft. He's cleared 3.5 in two of three games and projects at 4.07. The chemistry with Watson is still developing, but volume like this usually finds its way to the stat sheet.

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🎯 Big TD Target in a Low Scoring Game

Touchdowns should be scarce in a game with a 38.5 total, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see any. The Browns tight end has caught 14 of his 18 targets for 126 yards, and his work near the goal line has been flawless. He's drawn two red zone targets and turned both into touchdowns.

Harold Fannin is coming off his best game of the year, too, catching seven passes for 51 yards and two scores against Carolina, including the game winner late in the fourth quarter. Fannin has found the end zone in five straight home games in Cleveland, scoring seven times in that stretch. He also scored the only touchdown in the Browns' 13-6 win over Pittsburgh last December, on this same field.

Pittsburgh has allowed opposing tight ends to catch 71.4% of their targets at 12 yards per grab, and Carolina's trio of Darren Waller, Tommy Tremble, and Mitchell Evans combined for 11 catches and 128 yards against this defense. None of them brings what Fannin does at 6'4 and roughly 240 pounds, big enough to bully safeties and quick enough to shake linebackers.

There's one more layer. Against the league's best pass rush, Deshaun Watson won't have time to wait on routes downfield. When Cleveland reaches the red zone, expect him to look for the target he already trusts with the game on the line.

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