No division in football is harder to predict right now. The Bears won the NFC North last year and are priced fourth in expected wins this season. The Lions missed the playoffs entirely and are the market favorite at +170. The Packers made the postseason but look like they took a step back. And the Vikings made the most consequential move in the division, but nobody is treating them like a contender. 

Detroit Lions Season Win Total

The Lions posted the third best total DVOA in football last year at 21.5%, sitting behind only Seattle and Los Angeles, and still finished the season 9-8. They were seventh on offense (11.8%), ninth on defense (-7.4%), second in yards per play at 6.46, and eighth in point differential at +68. What sank them was a 2-5 mark in games decided by seven points or fewer, something they need to improve on this year. Point differential alone valued them at 10.02 wins.

Jared Goff threw 35 touchdowns against eight interceptions behind an offense that averaged 404.2 yards and 28.3 points per game, both fourth in the league. Drew Petzing takes over as coordinator after running the most pass heavy attack in football in Arizona, which should suit a skill group of Amon Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. Gibbs forced 62 missed tackles last year and now shares carries with Isiah Pacheco after David Montgomery was dealt to Houston. I see that as a likely usage boost for Gibbs this year. 

The line got reshuffled with Taylor Decker and Graham Glasgow gone. Everything was coming together nicely as Penei Sewell slides to left tackle off a 95.1 PFF grade and Clemson rookie Blake Miller takes the right side. Cade Mays was the highlight signing this offseason, but the Lions are already in crisis control after losing their new center for the next 8-10 weeks.

Detroit gave up 24.3 points per game last year, 22nd in the league, and the secondary is thin with Terrion Arnold released and both Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph working back from injury. Aidan Hutchinson covers a lot of that up, having cleared 100 pressures in two of his last three seasons, and Michigan rookie Derrick Moore arrives with a 92.4 pass rush grade.

Pair the easiest projected schedule in the NFL with a roster this complete and 11 or 12 wins is the reasonable expectation. Take the Over, and take Detroit at +170 to win the division. 

⚾ Home Run Cheat Sheet

Pine’s Home Run Sheet gives you everything you need to pick tonight’s home run hitters:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's HR projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has gone deep over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

⚾️ Expect a Busy Scoreboard in Three Games Tonight

The recipe for an over is not complicated: a starter with a growing ERA, standing in a park that already tilts toward the bats. Three games today qualify, and one of them stands out from the rest of the slate.

Cubs at Nationals Over 8.5

Nationals Park ranks seventh overall at a 102 factor, with runs and hits both at 104 and homers at 103. Kevin Gausman arrives in a slide, his 4.29 season ERA climbing to 5.89 across his last nine starts, with his team going 2-7 in that stretch. Cade Cavalli has been fine at 3.57 with 9.9 strikeouts per nine, but the bullpen behind him ranks 27th at 4.84.

The real hook is the offenses. These are the two highest scoring clubs in baseball. Washington leads the sport with 649 runs, a .768 OPS, and 174 home runs. Chicago sits second with 622 runs, first in wRC+ at 111.5, and third in OPS. On paper this has “Over” written all over it.

Brewers at Dodgers Over 8.5

Shane Drohan has surrendered at least three runs in four of his last five games, including two home runs in his last start. Roki Sasaki owns a 4.54 season ERA with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine, and the long ball has been his identified weakness all year. Putting that profile in this ballpark is asking for trouble.

The offenses cooperate too. Los Angeles ranks fourth in scoring at better than five runs per game, with 602 runs, the second best OPS at .766, and a 111 wRC+. Milwaukee is fifth with 589 runs, so neither side is a drag on the total.

The sharp money actually sits on the under at 51.4%, which reflects Sasaki's 2.40 ERA across his last five starts. The market has priced his recent form, but Dodger Stadium carries a 126 home run factor, among the highest anywhere today, and both starters are vulnerable to the conditions.

Rangers at Angels Over 8.0

Angel Stadium plays dead neutral at 100 overall, but its 103 home run factor nudges slightly toward offense. Jacob deGrom has been hammered by this Angels lineup over the years, allowing a .302 average, a .671 slugging mark, and three home runs across 42 plate appearances.

Walbert Ureña has done the reverse to Texas, holding them to a <.100 average with a .125 slugging figure and a 23.3% strikeout rate over 21 plate appearances. That is the only positive the Angels have on the pitching front, featuring a recently replaced pitching and bullpen coaching staff.

Sharp money leans over at 51.8%, but it’s worth noting the Angels rank 26th in the majors in runs scored, so half the total depends on an offense that has not produced consistently.

🌲 The Pine Line

👑 Former MVP and 9-time all-star is calling it quits. He retires as the all-time NBA leader for most triple-doubles.

🤕 Head, shoulders, knees, and toes. Those are all the places that Freddie Freeman is feeling sore this morning.

🤼 From the gridiron to the ring. WWE has it’s eyes set on recruiting NFL rookies.

🏎️ One of the fastest cars on the grid just got even faster. Watch out for the Italian team making a push up the leaderboard.

⚾️ Field of Dreams Tonight on Netflix

Welcome to Iowa. Baseball goes back to the cornfields tonight, with Philadelphia and Minnesota playing the third game ever staged in Dyersville and the first since 2022, after construction around the site cost the league a year in 2023. Netflix carries the broadcast with Matt Vasgersian, CC Sabathia, and Hunter Pence calling it.

The setting still delivers. MLB built a game-ready park about 500 feet from the movie set from the 1989 film, modeled after Comiskey, with bullpens past the center field wall and windows cut into right field so the corn stays visible. The 2021 debut remains one of the wildest regular season games in memory: eight home runs, a 9-8 White Sox win over the Yankees, and a Tim Anderson walk-off two run shot off Zack Britton.

Kevin Costner led both clubs out of the stalks and 5.9 million people watched, the best regular season number Fox had drawn since 2005. The Cubs beat the Reds 4-2 the following year, with Ken Griffey Sr. and Jr. playing catch beforehand.

➡️ Twins to Cover +1.5 (-167)

The moneyline is essentially even at -110 and -105, but the spread is where the edge sits. The Twins rank eighth in runs with 564 and tenth in wRC+ at 102.94, while Philadelphia sits 26th in wRC+ and 25th in on base percentage at .309. Some books have already shortened this to +1.0 but I’ll take the extra half run to avoid a potential push.

➡️ Taj Bradley Strikeouts Prop

The best prop on the board. Bradley has cleared this in seven of his last nine home starts, averaging 7.44 per game. His 10.12 K/9 meets a Phillies lineup that ranks eighth in strikeouts with 1,039 and owns one of the worst swinging strike rates in baseball at 11.4%.

Taj has a 6.45 strikeout average per game this season and a 64% hit rate for the over. I see 5 as the absolute floor given tonight’s matchup.

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