The NHL and the Olympics have never really been friends. They are more like reluctant business partners who keep coming back to the table because the alternative is worse for everyone. The league pulled out of the 2018 Games after the IOC refused to foot the bill for player insurance, travel, and accommodations. Four years later, a deal for Beijing came together and then fell apart when COVID turned the schedule into chaos.

What came next was a July 2025 agreement that returned NHL players to Olympic ice. The IIHF absorbed the insurance and travel costs that had derailed previous negotiations, and the league walked away with stronger commercial rights and better access to Olympic content. Team executives were largely told to accept the arrangement. One anonymous GM put it plainly: unless a player was genuinely hurt, he was going to Milan, and franchises were just going to have to deal with that reality.

They may not like it, but they’re dealing with it. The season resumes today, and the damage report arrives with it.

Los Angeles is the most urgent case. The Kings are three points out of a playoff spot now with their second-leading scorer out for the rest of the regular season. The decision to acquire Artemi Panarin was supposed to signal a serious Cup push but Kevin Fiala's injury has neutralized that ambition. The Kings defend well enough, allowing fewer than 2.77 goals per game, but defensive solidity only gets you so far when your offense cannot keep pace. Placing Fiala on LTIR unlocks that full cap number, which could give GM Rob Blake something to work with before the March 6 trade deadline. Still, at +180 to miss the playoffs, this franchise is trending in the wrong direction.

Dallas is dealing with a different kind of problem. The Stars entered the Olympic break as Central Division contenders and now must navigate at least two weeks without Mikko Rantanen, who had 69 points in 54 games and 30 power-play points to his name heading into the Olympic break. Their scoring had already softened since January, slipping from a 3.41 goals-per-game average down to 3.06. Losing the player most responsible for generating offense at this stage of the season feels like the moment the Division title definitively becomes someone else's to win.

Winnipeg entered this stretch already 11 points out of a playoff position, so the stakes are different, but losing Josh Morrissey still matters. He averages nearly 25 minutes of ice time per game and anchors a defensive structure that has posted a 3.12 goals-against average with him in the lineup. That does not get replaced easily, and their hopes of any push in the standings are slim.

The Milan tournament delivered exactly what we wanted: a genuine all-time moment when the United States beat Canada in overtime on the anniversary of the Miracle on Ice. It also delivered a broken leg, a missing captain, and multiple multi-week absences during the season's most consequential stretch. The injury toll validates every concern NHL execs have raised, while the on-ice product validates every argument from players and fans, and neither one is going to back down as discussions for 2030 begin.

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🏒 NHL Returns Tonight!

Now that the Olympic break is over, we’re back to normal programing with some NHL player props for tonight’s action.

Alex Tuch Over 0.5 Points (-135)

Buffalo is navigating a tough stretch without several key contributors, including Zach Benson and Jordan Greenway, and Tage Thompson is also expected to miss Wednesday's game. That missing firepower pushes more offensive responsibility onto players like Tuch, which is exactly the kind of elevated role he tends to thrive in.

The matchup sets up well too. New Jersey has been vulnerable all season without Luke Hughes, and their defensive metrics have declined noticeably as a result of his injury, making them a favorable opponent for any scorer looking to get on the board.

The numbers behind Tuch are hard to dismiss. He has hit the over in 75% of his last 20 games and in 62.5% of all his appearances this season. On the road specifically, that rate sits at 60.71% with a mean of 0.71 points per game away from home. With Thompson out and the offensive load redistributed, expect Tuch to be heavily involved.

Alex Ovechkin Over 0.5 Goals (+160)

The value here is real, even if the recent form gives you pause. Ovechkin has scored in just two of his last ten games, and his season average of 0.37 goals per game is not the Ovechkin of years past. Washington's defensive structure has remained a work in progress despite adding Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy, and their goaltending has been inconsistent.

What makes this bet worth considering is the opponent. Against Philadelphia since the start of last season, Ovechkin has been a different player entirely. Across five games against the Flyers, he is averaging 0.60 goals per game, and last season alone he scored in three of four matchups against them while averaging 0.75 goals per game. At +160, you are getting plus-money odds on a player with a documented history of showing up against this specific opponent.

Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (-130)

If there is a best bet on the board Wednesday, this is the one. Kucherov has been operating at a genuinely absurd level lately, averaging 2.6 points per game over his last five contests while clearing the 1.5-point threshold in four of those five outings. Zoom out to his last 20 games and the hit rate holds at 80%. At home this season he has been slightly more modest, hitting this line 60% of the time while averaging 1.64 points per game in Tampa.

The Toronto matchup makes everything better. The Maple Leafs rank 30th in the league defending the right wing position, 29th against assists, and dead last at 32nd against shots on goal for that position. Kucherov does not need much of an opening, and Toronto is giving him a wide one. This is an elite player in peak form facing one of the worst possible defensive alignments for containing him.

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Life After Olympic Hockey

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Every athlete knows the truth: just because you’re not on the injury report doesn’t mean you’re healthy, or rested.

That’s the puzzle for bettors now that the Olympic break is over. Do we downgrade American hero Jack Hughes and the New Jersey Devils?  Do we fade Vezina machine Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets?  

What History Says

Back in 2014, Phil Kessel and Erik Karlsson finished the tournament tied for the most points with eight.  Then, Kessel tallied the first goal of the game back for Toronto while Karlsson was largely quiet for Ottawa despite nearly 30 minutes of ice time!

The last NHL Olympic Golden Goal was in 2010 when Sidney Crosby’s wrister whistled past Ryan Miller.  Then, he returned to Pittsburgh and recorded an assist on the Pens first power play goal.  

Even in net, the elites didn’t crash.  Dominik Hašek helped the Czech Republic go on a miraculous run, including a shutout in the Gold Medal Game, to make his country just the seventh ever to take gold.  He returned for Buffalo and saved 33 of 35 shots in an overtime tie.  

Lessons Learned

Yes, we’re dealing with a small sample size, as there have only been six Olympic hockey tournaments with NHL players.  But the pattern is clear: the greats tend to ride the emotional wave and perform immediately after the break.

Maybe the fatigue shows up later. Bettors don’t care about later…we care about Wednesday.

So, let’s use this trend and Jaxon’s AI tools to make some money:

Jets ML (-128) vs Canucks 

Connor Hellebuyck will not be in goal for this game.  Instead, it’s Eric Comrie.  

That change does not mean expecting Vancouver to score a bunch of goals.  Comrie has a Goals Against Average of 3.07 and a save percentage of .892, certainly formidable enough for a win.

What should stand out is Winnipeg’s offense.  Mark Scheifele has 68 points in 56 games.  Kyle Connor has 64 points.  Vancouver is still figuring its blue line out after trading away Quinn Hughes just a couple of months ago.  

Winnipeg should knock off Vancouver in Hellebuyck’s absence.

Oilers ML (-114) at Ducks

What a devastating loss for Connor McDavid and the Canadian team Sunday.  After so many good looks at the net, they were no match for Connor Hellebuyck.  

However, all indications are McDavid will put that misery behind him and play against Anaheim.  It’s not just that McDavid is leading the league with 96 points and 32.5 expected goals, he’s part of a power play with an unbelievable 31.45% efficiency!

Anaheim’s defense ranks 29th in the league allowing 3.48 goals per game.  Even a good blue line would still get headaches from the firepower Edmonton typically showcases.  

To make matters worse for the Ducks, Frank Vatrano and Leo Carlsson are on injured reserve.  Outscoring McDavid and company may not be possible, so back Edmonton on the moneyline.

Key Takeaway

Olympic fatigue is real; but, for elite players, so is the adrenaline bump in their first game back.

Until the market fully prices that in, there’s value in backing the stars.

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