Ever feel like you're flying blind when betting player props? You're not alone. Many bettors are still stuck manually checking stats, comparing lines, and trying to remember how players perform in specific matchups. By the time you've done your homework, the lines have moved, kickoff is minutes away, and you’ve missed out on the value.

That's where the prop sheets from Pine Sports change the game.

Pine’s Player Prop Sheets give you instant access to the data that matters most. You get real-time projections and betting lines, historical hit rates, matchup-specific rankings, and confidence ratings all in one place so you can quickly identify where the value is.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor looking to streamline your process or someone just getting into player props, having this data at your fingertips helps you bet with an edge. Here are a few plays from the 100% Consistency Sheet. 👇️ 

Tyjae Spears Over 2.5 Receptions (-135)

Spears has hit this mark in seven straight, averaging 4.2 receptions in his last 5. Tennessee's offense ranks 30th in DVOA facing Cleveland's elite defense (3rd) that leads the league in sack rate at 12.57%. Spears ranks 2nd among RBs in catch percentage at 93.33%, making him the perfect check-down target.

J.J. McCarthy Over 0.5 Interceptions (-198)

McCarthy has thrown at least one interception in every game of his career, averaging 1.67 per contest. His 5.18% interception rate is worst in the NFL, ranking 46th in both Passing EPA (-74.62) and completion percentage (54.09%).

Zach Ertz Over 3.5 Receptions (-165)

Ertz has cleared this line in all five recent games, averaging 5.2 receptions with a season mean of 4.08. His 21% target share ranks 2nd among tight ends, and Minnesota's defense ranks 24th against the position is a clear mismatch for Washington's focal point receiver.

Bijan Robinson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Robinson averages 82.92 yards per game this season and 89.2 over his last five contests (80% hit rate). Despite Seattle's elite run defense (2nd in yards allowed), Robinson's 5.1 yards per carry and Atlanta's commitment to the run (9th in rushing yards) should produce enough volume to clear this modest line.

Jason Myers Over 1.5 Field Goals (-192)

Myers averages 2.33 field goals per game and 3.0 over his last five, hitting this mark in 75% of games this season. Atlanta ranks 24th in defense against kickers, consistently allowing opponents into field goal range.

🤖 Jaxon Just Got Smarter

Jaxon taps into advanced analytics to break down every NFL or NBA matchup with even greater precision.

Your gut < basic trends < advanced analytics.

It's a data-driven league, but you don't need a data science degree to get the analysis pro handicappers rely on.

📈 Team Stats → Efficiency metrics and situational data
👤 Player Stats → Usage and opportunity info
💰️ Value Stats → Spot advanced stat mismatches

Here is one example of a player shooting analysis that you can do with the new Jaxon updates!

🏈 Player Prop Value in Week 14

Week 14 brings several high-value matchups where advanced metrics reveal mismatches that sharp bettors can capitalize on. From elite rushing attacks facing porous run defenses to secondary breakdowns against top target earners, this slate offers several clear edges.

Michael Pittman Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions (-132)

The Colts' passing attack enters Week 14 as one of the league's most explosive units, ranking first in yards per play at 6.7. That efficiency should be on full display against a Jaguars defense that's allowing the 25th-most passing yards per game. 

Pittman has been Daniel Jones' most reliable target all season, hauling in five catches per game with a solid 73% catch rate. On the road he's hit over 4.5 receptions in every single game this year, averaging 6.4 catches in those contests. Jacksonville ranks 29th in receptions allowed to opposing receivers, creating a perfect storm for Pittman to see double-digit targets. 

With the Jaguars' strong run defense likely forcing Jones into passing situations, Pittman's volume should be there again this week.

James Cook Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-103)

Buffalo's ground game has been a force all season, leading the NFL in rushing yards at 155.67 per game, and they're facing the perfect opponent to lean into that strength. Cincinnati's run defense is a disaster, ranking 31st in rushing yards allowed and 29th in yards per carry while posting the league's worst missed tackle rate at nearly 16%. 

Cook is already the NFL's workhorse, averaging 19.25 carries per game this season, but over his last five games, he's averaged 21 attempts. The Bengals' defensive line is banged up too which only makes it easier for Buffalo's offensive line to dominate up front. With the Bills favored heavily and likely playing with a lead, expect them to pound the rock and control the clock. 

Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (-108)

Kansas City's defense ranks 31st in opponent completion percentage allowed at nearly 70%, and while they're effective at limiting explosive plays (4th in yards per reception allowed), they're essentially giving up a death-by-a-thousand-cuts approach underneath. That's exactly where Schultz lives in Houston's offensive scheme.

Schultz has been remarkably consistent, averaging 4.92 receptions per game and ranking fourth among all tight ends in that category. He's cleared this 4.5 mark in four of his last five games, averaging 5.4 catches during that stretch. Schultz's 19% target share (fifth among tight ends) becomes even more crucial to Houston's ability to move the chains this week. Against a Chiefs defense that surrenders completions at the highest rate in the league, Schultz should see plenty of targets. 

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 NFL Betting analysis for Week 14. Read why sharp money backs these teams.

📹️ Love sports, betting, and creating content? We’re hiring!

🏀 The Clippers decided something overnight that left everyone confused. This departure was anything but smooth.

🏒 Hockey players have enough trouble staying healthy through all the hits. These recent injuries didn’t happen on the job. 

🏆️ The final set of rankings come out on Sunday. Will Ohio State remain on top?

🏈 Week 14 Touchdown Scorers

by Tony Reyes

Tyler Warren: Why The Sharpest Bettors Are Fading The Chalk

Let me ask you something: When was the last time you got nearly 2-to-1 odds on a player with legitimate goal-line work?

That's exactly what you're getting with Tyler Warren at +175 to score a touchdown in the Colts-Jaguars matchup. While the public continues to bet on Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne despite worse odds, professional bettors see value in Warren due to his favorable matchup, increased red zone targets, and role in the offense. Here's why they're right.

The red zone numbers don't lie. Warren sits tied for third in this entire matchup with five total red zone opportunities—three targets and two carries. But it's not just the raw volume that matters. It's WHEN he's getting those touches and WHY the Jaguars' game plan is going to force the ball into his hands.

Jacksonville owns the NFL's best run defense. We're talking 82.42 rushing yards allowed per game, first in the league against the run, absolute lockdown at the line of scrimmage. The Jaguars are going to dare Daniel Jones to beat them through the air.

And that's where Warren becomes the most dangerous player on the field. When Jacksonville stacks the box to neutralize Jonathan Taylor—which they WILL, because that's what elite run defenses do—it creates a massive coverage problem. Single coverage on tight ends. Space in the middle of the field. Check-down opportunities in the red zone where throwing lanes are compressed.

Warren has already proven he can capitalize. Five total touchdowns this season, including one on the ground. He ranks second on the Colts in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. The coaching staff has made him a priority weapon, designing plays specifically to get him the ball in high-leverage situations. This isn't some gadget player getting random touches—this is a legitimate offensive centerpiece.

The Jaguars have been soft through the air too, giving up 22 passing touchdowns this season—eighth-most in the league. When the run game stalls against that elite Jacksonville front, Jones needs his safety blanket. That's Tyler Warren in the flat, that's Tyler Warren on the seam, that's Tyler Warren finding space when everything else breaks down.

Here's what makes this bet special. You're getting nearly 2-to-1 money on a player the defense is FORCING the offense to target. At +175, you need Warren to score just 36% of the time to break even. His usage and the schematic setup suggest he's scoring way more often than that.

This isn't a hope play. This is scheme meeting opportunity meeting value.

DK Metcalf: Why The Market Is Handing You Free Money

Let me tell you something, the books don't want you to figure out.

Everyone sees Derrick Henry at -160 and assumes that’s where the smart money is. Heavy favorite, elite volume, home game—sure. But here’s what sharp bettors know: getting +200 on a team’s clear red zone receiving threat is the real value.

DK Metcalf isn't just a good bet at these odds. When you consider his actual red zone production this season, he's a STEAL.

Start with the opportunity. Metcalf leads the Steelers with 9 red zone targets this season. Of those, 4 were inside the 5-yard line, which ranks him 12th among ALL receivers in red zone targets from that critical area. When Pittsburgh is near the goal line, and Aaron Rodgers needs a target, there's only one answer. Metcalf has already turned those opportunities into 5 receiving touchdowns this year and has scored in 7 out of 14 games (50% of the time).

The +200 odds imply just a 33.3% probability of Metcalf scoring a touchdown in the game (since +200 odds mean a $100 bet returns $200 if successful). But he's already scored in 50% of his games this season (7 of 14). The market is pricing him like a secondary option when he is actually the focal point of Pittsburgh's passing attack.

The Ravens' defense ranks 21st against opposing wide receivers. While they've tightened up recently—holding receivers to just 2 touchdowns over the last 4 games—that defensive success is EXACTLY what's inflating Metcalf's odds to +200. The books are overreacting to a small sample size.

The game script writes itself, too. Pittsburgh is getting 6 points, which means they're expected to be trailing. Trailing teams throw the ball, and they look for their big-bodied receiver who can win contested catches. The Steelers rank 22nd in Offensive DVOA—when offenses struggle, they simplify and go to their stars. For Pittsburgh, that's DK Metcalf.

The market says there's only a 33% chance he'll score, according to the odds. His season data—scoring in 50% of games—shows the true probability is higher. That's not a bet. That's a heist.

Join the conversation!

Let us know if you’re tailing or who you think is due to find the endzone this weekend! If you’re still in your Survivor Pool, be sure to read about this week’s recommendation! Tag us on X @PineSports_AI or join the Discord server so you don’t miss out!