🏀 Brunson is Rewriting Knicks History

Carolina's fourth line is outscoring their stars plus WNBA props worth backing tonight

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The debate of the greatest NY Knick of all time involves few names. Walt Frazier and Willis Reed built their cases on NBA championships in 1970 and 1973, and for five decades nobody came close enough to seriously challenge them. Patrick Ewing is only politely included in the conversation. Jalen Brunson is putting his name in the hat with this playoff dominance.

Brunson averaged 26 points and 6.8 assists during the regular season, operating as the primary offensive engine. His playmaking took a big step this year too, comfortable letting Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges share the scoring burden. But ever since the playoffs arrived, he has completely shifted gears.

He is averaging 26.9 points per game this postseason and has already dropped 47 in a single playoff game (2024), the highest scoring performance by any Knick in franchise history. He has scored at least 15 points in all 56 of his playoff games for New York, one of the longest such streaks in the league. He recently became the second-fastest guard in NBA history to reach 2,000 career playoff points, behind only Stephen Curry.

Reed won Finals MVP twice and those championships defined an era. Patrick Ewing, arguably the most iconic Knick of the generation between then and now, never won a ring. Frazier remains the cultural symbol of New York Knicks basketball and even he is ready to pass the torch to Brunson.

In four years with the Knicks, Brunson has accumulated 35 playoff wins with an average of 29.2 points per game. If Brunson wins a championship this summer and claims Finals MVP while averaging nearly 30 points per game, the argument for placing him above everyone else in franchise history becomes hard to refute.

The Knicks are one series win away from finding out if he can end a 53-year drought. The Knicks are currently +230 to win the Finals and Brunson is +240 to be Finals MVP.

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🏒 Carolina's Depth Has Them Two Wins Away

In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it’s often the stars who play the biggest role.  If you go to MoneyPuck and look at who scored the most expected goals per 60 minutes last season, it’s the eventual Conn Smythe winner in Sam Bennett and future hall of famer Alex Ovechkin.

This Season’s Carolina Hurricanes are Different

Leading in expected goals per 60 for the Canes these playoffs is Eric Robinson.  He plays on the fourth line.  

The skater with the most actual points is Taylor Hall, their second line’s left winger.  It’s not Sebastian Aho or Andrei Svechnikov like you might expect.

Their Depth is the Difference

One reason why Carolina leads the Eastern Conference Finals 2-1 is because every line is capable of taking over the hockey game.

In both the regular season and playoffs, NHL Edge ranks the Hurricanes #1 in time possessing the puck in the offensive zone.  Owning that mark isn’t just because the top skater can keep evading pressure, it’s the fourth line not simply falling into a conventional role of playing defensive hockey.  

They are generating real scoring chances and all defensemen are aggressively forechecking to get the puck back.  

High-Danger Shots on Goal

That possession dominance also leads to good shot quality.  The Canes lead all playoff teams with a 57% expected goal share, meaning they’re manufacturing quality shots and limiting opponents from crashing the net.

Taking Control of the Series

You’d think with all of these lopsided statistics that Carolina should be up 3-0 on the Canadiens instead of one blowout loss and two overtime wins.  

But Wednesday night might be when Carolina puts it all together to play the same dominant brand of hockey we saw in the first two rounds.

How to Bet It

Because of Carolina’s depth, figuring out who can tally a point or goal is even tougher than usual.  Fortunately, Jaxon is here to help!  Here’s our favorite player props for Game 4:

Carolina is at its most dangerous when the forecheck is working and the defensemen are getting quality shots off the rush.  

Jalen Chatfield leads all Hurricane blueliners with 1.8 shots on goal per playoff game.  He’s cleared 1.5 in seven of his last ten games.  And, against Montreal, he’s averaging 2.2 shots on goal per contest.  

Look for Chatfield to throw the puck at the net often in transition.

Looking at the third line, Jordan Martinook is in a prime position to keep Carolina’s offense clicking.

Montreal has allowed a lot of scoring chances from the perimeter, specifically 115 medium-danger shots on goal in the playoffs, almost 30 more than anyone else.  

What puts Martinook in a better position than any other Canes winger is he’s cleared this mark in seven of his last ten contests.  He will keep Montreal goaltending busy from the outside.

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🏀 WNBA Action with Pine’s Prop Sheet

The WNBA season is underway and Pine’s player prop sheets for WNBA is already surfacing some clean angles on the early-season slate. Here are two props worth backing Wednesday night.

Thomas is averaging 18.0 points through seven games this season and has cleared this line in six of them, an 85.7% hit rate that is about as consistent as it gets. Her last five games show a 17.4 average and a hit rate of 80%. The line opened at 17.5, climbed to 18.5 at one point, and has since settled back to 16.5, likely as a concession to New York's defensive reputation. That adjustment creates the value.

The road context makes this even more interesting. In three away games this season, Thomas has averaged 19.7 points and hit this prop every single time. She appears to absorb a larger portion of Phoenix's offensive responsibility when the Mercury are playing away from home.

The Liberty cannot simply collapse their defense on Thomas because rookie Jovana Nogic is shooting over 50% from three, which keeps the driving lanes open. Thomas operates as the forefront of Phoenix's offense alongside Kahleah Copper, and New York's defensive ranking against forwards is respectable but not impenetrable.

Kayla McBride's season average sits lower than expected, which makes this line look tight at first glance. The longer-term trends tell a different story. Over her last ten games she has averaged 2.5 makes and hit this line at an 80% rate. Over her last twenty games the average stays at 2.5 with a 75% hit rate. The current season represents a slight dip from her established baseline.

Against Atlanta specifically, she has cashed this prop in 7 of 8 head-to-head games and is already 1 of 1 this season against them. With Napheesa Collier still sidelined, McBride carries significant offensive responsibility, and rookie Olivia Miles drawing defensive attention off the dribble consistently frees her for catch-and-shoot opportunities on the perimeter. The price is steep but the matchup and trend history support it.

đź§€ Stay Sharp with Pine

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