The NFL has completely reshuffled the league landscape heading into 2026. Free Agency officially opens this afternoon and we’ll start to see rumors turn into signed contracts very quickly.

The marquee move currently belongs to Kansas City. Kenneth Walker III is heading to the Chiefs on a three-year deal worth up to $45 million, and the fit is perfect. Patrick Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL and the Chiefs ranked 23rd in rushing yards last season. Walker is exactly the kind of home-run threat that forces defensive coordinators to open up the deep passing game without requiring Mahomes to create everything himself. Multiple problems solved.

In New York, John Harbaugh wasted no time bringing Baltimore's infrastructure with him. Isaiah Likely signs a three-year, $40 million deal with the Giants, reuniting with his former head coach and sliding into an offense built around rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. Likely generates 47% of his receiving yards after the catch and operates at a shallow average depth of target of 7.2 yards, which makes him an ideal safety valve for a young quarterback still developing his downfield confidence. The Giants are building a Harbaugh-style offense from the ground up, and Likely is the first piece that actually looks like it.

On the defensive side, Carolina made one of the loudest statements by landing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips on a four-year, $120 million deal. The Panthers ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks and pressures last season, partly because they couldn't generate a four-man rush consistently enough to free up their coverage linebackers. Phillips is a complete defensive end who wins in both the run game and as a pass rusher, which gives Carolina the foundational piece their defense has been missing.

Washington followed with Odafe Oweh on a four-year, $100 million contract, addressing what was arguably the most glaring need on a defense that ranked last in yards allowed in 2025. Oweh converted his high pressure rate into actual sacks after a midseason trade to the Chargers, and new GM Adam Peters is clearly prioritizing the kind of high-ceiling athletes who can anchor a rebuild from the outside in.

Don’t forget, these are only the results of the first 48 hours of the legal tampering period. Free Agency hasn’t even started yet. Buckle up!

✨ NBA First Basket Prop Sheet

Stop guessing on first basket props.

Pine’s First Basket sheet gives you everything you need to identify the most likely opening scorers before tipoff:

Tip Win % – See which teams control the opening possession
1st FG Attempt % – Know who's getting the first look
1st FG Made % – Track who actually converts when it matters
Shot Locations – On Desktop, expand a player to see where they shoot

No fluff. No guesswork. Just the numbers that separate sharp plays from coin flips.

🏀 Wednesday Night NBA: Three Plays, Three Edges

Wednesday night's slate is headlined by three games with genuine playoff implications, and the efficiency data is pointing in clear directions across all three.

Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 (-110)

This is a potential first-round playoff preview between two of the Eastern Conference's better defensive units, and it's closer on paper than Cleveland's résumé might suggest. Orlando is legitimately difficult to beat at home, ranks 11th in defensive rating, and limit opponent three-point frequency better than almost anyone in the league, which runs directly into the Cavs' offensive identity.

The numbers that matter most here are the recent samples. Over their last ten road games, Cleveland has posted a net rating of +4.43. Orlando's net rating over their last ten home games is +2.83. Cleveland's road offensive efficiency over that stretch significantly outpaces Orlando's home defense. Add the fact that the Cavs have already beaten Orlando twice this season, by 14 and 16 points, and this is a straightforward lean.

Toronto Raptors ML (-102)

The Pelicans have gone 6-4 over their last ten games, which gives this line a deceptive look. Dig into the efficiency profiles and the gap is wide. Toronto ranks sixth in defensive rating. New Orleans ranks 26th. The Raptors rank seventh in turnovers and fourth in turnover percentage forced, which is sure to put pressure on the Pelicans’ 22nd ranked offense.

The one big concern for Toronto is Jakob Poeltl's absence, which opens the paint for Zion Williamson and Derik Queen to operate. But, Toronto's transition offense ranks first in the league in frequency, and New Orleans ranks dead last in transition efficiency allowed. If the Raptors can push pace and open up the floor, Poeltl's absence matters considerably less.

Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-120)

Houston is a genuinely balanced team, ranking top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the best offensive rebounding rate in the league at 37.8%. Against a Denver team that ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding, that's a meaningful edge on paper.

Denver at Ball Arena is a different proposition than Denver on the road. Their offensive rating of 120.1 leads the league and their effective field goal percentage of 57.2% ranks second. They protect the ball as well as anyone, ranking third in turnover percentage, which neutralizes Houston's ability to generate the transition opportunities that fuel their best offensive possessions. If Jamal Murray suits up and Denver's shooting comes alive, this line could look conservative by the fourth quarter.

🌲 The Pine Line

👑 BAM! You’ve never seen anything like what Miami’s big man just did. 

⚾️ The biggest win in Italian baseball history. The American dream team is in serious trouble.

🏈 It took exactly four days for the Ravens to get buyer’s remorse. Just pretend it never happened.

⚾️ An electrician from Czechia struck out the best batter in the world. This is the best story of the WBC so far.

⚽️ The worst performance in pro sports just happened. A soccer goalie was subbed out like it’s hockey.

🏀 What to Watch for During Wednesday's Conference Tournaments

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Last week, I gave you a gentle but serious reminder that the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is almost upon us.  Now, it’s less gentle and more serious:

Conference tournaments are REALLY heating up!

The big conferences are tipping off, and that’s what I want to focus on here.

Upcoming Schedule

• The ACC is already underway in Charlotte with the top four seeds not starting until Thursday.

• The Big 12 has the same schedule with Arizona, Houston and Kansas tipping off Thursday.

• The 18-team Big Ten Tournament started Tuesday and runs through Sunday.  They could have five teams earn a 3-seed or better.

• The SEC begins Wednesday and continues through Selection Sunday, with Florida’s run beginning Friday as they go for a top seed in the Big Dance.

Things to Consider

So that we can squeeze in these mammoth tournaments, some games are played in the early afternoons.  Good research suggests teams play at a lower pace and score fewer points when they play earlier.  Finding first-half unders for these early afternoon games could be beneficial.

Some teams will also have played a few games in consecutive days.  It can work out in a team’s advantage like Northern Iowa last weekend winning four games in four days, but typically it’s better to support the rested team especially if they’ve proven more in the regular season and don’t have the wear-and-tear the worse seeds might have playing so much.

Using Jaxon’s AI tools, here are bets we like for Wednesday:

Kentucky (-7.5) vs LSU

LSU’s Matt McMahon is coaching for his job.  In the last four seasons, if you take out an anomalous 2023-24 campaign, the Tigers have gone 8-46 in conference play.  That includes finishing in last place this season.

Now they’re getting Kentucky, a team with solid offensive metrics stemming from the play of Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen.  The Wildcats are capable of playing an uptempo style, which has given LSU grief all season.  

Look for Kentucky to shoot and make a lot of threes, en route to covering this spread.

Auburn (-7.5) vs Mississippi State

When it comes to motivation, Auburn has more to play for than nearly any squad from a major conference in the country.  The Tigers are squarely on the bubble and need at least one win for any hope of playing in the NCAAs.

Auburn's offensive rebounding is a weapon, and they're one of the better free-throw shooting teams in the country..  Even though the Tigers lost to Mississippi State earlier this season, their ceiling is still that of a tournament team.

Back Auburn to cover.

Richmond (-4.5) vs Loyola Chicago

Stepping out of the power conferences and to the A-10 Tournament, Richmond boasts one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country (37.5%).  Defensively, the Spiders match up well with Loyola Chicago which wants to execute a lot of catch-and-shoot threes.  

If it’s a hot-shooting day for the Ramblers, so be it.  But Richmond should be successful by limiting second-chance opportunities, so even an average shooting performance will not be nearly enough to prevent the Spiders from winning by at least five points.

Bet smarter, not harder.

The edge isn’t luck, it’s knowing what the field doesn’t. Get ready for March Madness by downloading the Pine Sports App. Fill out your bracket this year with AI-powered insights in the palm of your hand.

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