AFC East Preview: A Two-Horse Race

New England is fresh off a Super Bowl trip and just landed the biggest receiver on the market. Buffalo fired a franchise icon and handed the whole operation to Joe Brady. The Jets might actually be the best value on the board, and Miami tore its roster down to the studs. Here's where we land on all four AFC East teams this season.

New England Patriots: Great Team, Wrong Price

The turnaround in Foxborough was staggering. A four win team in 2024 became a 14-3 juggernaut that reached the Super Bowl, powered by Drake Maye's runner up MVP season and an offense that led the league in yards per play while averaging nearly 29 points. Then they got greedy in the best way, prying A.J. Brown out of Philadelphia to give Maye the true number one he needs. Brown has topped 1,000 yards in six of his seven seasons and reportedly has most of Josh McDaniels' playbook down already. Romeo Doubs adds another red zone option, and Alijah Vera-Tucker plus first round tackle Caleb Lomu address a line that let Maye absorb a brutal 21 sacks across the postseason run.

So why fade them? Context. Last season's romp came against the softest schedule in football, and New England went just 2-2 against playoff opponents in the regular season while feasting on everyone else. This year they draw the 6th hardest slate, loaded with eight teams that reached last January's bracket. The defense, only 23rd in DVOA and 25th in sacks, opens camp with Harold Landry on the unable to perform list and leans on a rookie and Dre'Mont Jones to generate pressure. Add the historical drag on Super Bowl losers, who have cleared their win total exactly once in seven tries since 2019, and 11 wins is suddenly a steep ask.

Projection: The Patriots are still the division pick at plus odds, but Under 10.5 is the win total play.

⚾ Home Run Cheat Sheet

Pine’s Home Run Sheet gives you everything you need to pick tonight’s home run hitters:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's HR projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has gone deep over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

⚾️ Three Run-Scoring Games Tonight

Wednesday's board is built on three ingredients that move totals: starting pitchers with ugly home run splits, hitters who already own extensive damage against tonight's opponent, and ballparks that reward contact.

Today’s game in Cincinnati sits at the top, featuring a line of 8.5 that immediately appears too low. Brady Singer carries a 1.83 HR/9 rateinto this one, third worst among tonight's probable starters. Fifteen of the 21 home runs he has allowed this season came off left handed bats, and Cleveland has a lineup full of them.

The broader history is ugly too: Singer has surrendered a .383 career average to this Cleveland roster, with Jose Ramirez at .387 and three homers across 40 plate appearances and Brayan Rocchio a flawless four for four with a homer. Chase DeLauter punishes right handers, with nine of his eleven long balls coming against them, and he has 1 HR in two at-bats against Singer.

Great American ranks fifth overall in park factors and lifts home runs 18% above league average. Reds games have cleared the total 54.3% of the time this year.

Washington is next at Over 9.5. Zack Littell has been battered by these Blue Jays hitters, allowing a .318 average, a .606 slugging mark, and a .424 wOBA. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit .500 with a .621 wOBA across a dozen trips, while Daulton Varsho has two homers and a .644 wOBA. In 59 combined at bats, Littel only has 7 strikeouts (11.8%) against them so expect balls in play. Trey Yesavage has no prior experience at this Nationals lineup.

The ballpark ranks sixth in hitter friendliness with 104 factors for runs, hits, and homers, plus a 93 strikeout factor that keeps bats on the ball. Washington games have gone over in 58.3% of games this season, climbing to 62.3% at home.

The Chicago White Sox close today’s group at Over 7.5. Davis Martin has given up a .315 average and .855 slugging to the projected Yankee lineup, including four homers in 44 plate appearances. Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have both taken him deep, and Spencer Jones is one for one with a homer.

Rate Field plays neutral at 99 but nudges walks to 103, and Martin has issued free passes to 8.3% of these hitters. White Sox games rank third in the league for going over at 57.7% rate.

🌲 The Pine Line

🙈 Boston’s new signing is already benched indefinitely. Rough start to his Red Sox story.

🏒 Canadian fans just found the new home of Wednesday night hockey. Prime Video is expanding their NHL deal for the next 12 years.

🏈 Training camp is open across the league. The staff in San Fran are just trying to sort through the distractions.

🏀 It’s been 15 years since he was drafted for the Warriors. He just earned one more year to grab his fifth title.

🏈 Miss last week’s preview of the NFC East? Read the latest insights and predictions before kickoff.

🔥 Hits, Runs & RBIs from In-Form Batters

The best HRR spots come from a hitter in form, a deep lineup, and a soft matchup. Three names on tonight's board clear all three criteria.

➡️ Manny Machado Player Prop

Manny has cleared this number in every one of his last five games while averaging four HRR per contest, and he sits at 80% across his last fifteen. His season figure of 1.95 per game already lives above tonight's line, with a 48% hit rate through 104 games.

Colorado has been a friendly opponent for him, hitting the over in 5 of 8 meetings this year and 67% last season. San Diego's offense has been humming, and a Rockies staff carrying inflated ERA marks gives Machado plenty of paths to a run or RBI even on a quiet day at the plate.

➡️ Seiya Suzuki Player Prop

Seiya has hit the over in all of his last five, ten, and fifteen games, and his five game average of 4.0 is nearly triple what he needs tonight. Across 90 games he is at 60% with 2.37 HRR per game. The Cubs travel to St. Louis and draw Dustin May, against whom Suzuki carries a .330 BvP wOBA. Road games have suited him, producing a 67% hit rate. Reported timing adjustments and the added lineup strength from Matthew Boyd and Michael Conforto have him hitting with traffic ahead of him.

➡️ Nick Gonzales Player Prop

Nick has gone over this line in 80% of his last five and 90% of his last ten, averaging 2.9 during that run. His season mark is 2.21 per game with a 58.7% hit rate through 92 games. Arizona sends Eduardo Rodriguez to PNC Park, and while Gonzales is hitless in six career trips against him, his production against left handers this year is consistently solid. The park ranks 11th overall with park factors at 101, tilting slightly toward runs and hits. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn joining the order means more runners around him.

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