Before we jump into Monday Night Football, we need to talk about the Chicago Bears. For a team that was plus odds to win more than 8 games this season, and missing arguably their two best receivers, they just pulled off one of the most improbable victories in recent NFL history.

With just over five minutes left in regulation and the Packers up 16-6, advanced analytics gave the Bears a 0.5% chance to win. Half of one percent. Yet somehow, Chicago rattled off 16 unanswered points to force overtime and steal the victory. What makes this even more remarkable is that this marks the Bears' sixth win this season after trailing in the final two minutes, the most by any team since the 1970 merger.

The game itself was a study in contrasts. Green Bay dominated possession, holding the ball for nearly 39 minutes compared to Chicago's meager 26 minutes. But, they didn’t get much out it. The Packers only ran 10 more plays with the extra 13 minutes of time on the ball, and the Bears averaged 6.7 yards per play compared to Green Bay's 5.5, making them nearly 22% more efficient. Green Bay's fatal flaw was their stunning inability to finish drives. The Packers went 0-for-5 in the red zone, settling for field goals, committing turnovers on downs, and fumbling away their chances.

Enter Caleb Williams. The rookie quarterback has been maddeningly inconsistent this season, ranking 59th in completion percentage (58%) while simultaneously sitting fourth in total passing air yards. He's the definition of high risk, high reward.

Williams orchestrated an eight-play, 53-yard drive in just 95 seconds, capping it with a gutsy fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to undrafted rookie Jahdae Walker with 24 seconds remaining. Then in overtime, he uncorked a perfect 46-yard dime to DJ Moore for the walk-off score. He finished with 19 completions from 34 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns.

Speaking of drama, none of this happens without Cairo Santos executing a successful onside kick with under two minutes left. Under current NFL rules, recovering an onside kick has been a rarity. Only 6 have been recovered this season.

The playoff implications are massive. The Bears improved to 11-4 and now have a 96 percent chance of making the postseason for the first time in five years. They've also swept the Packers for the first time since 2007, which is the kind of statement that echoes through a division rivalry. On the other side, the Packers have now lost two in-a-row with the Ravens and Vikings still to come. They can kiss their chances of a division title goodbye, and now their playoff hopes are in question.

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🏈 49ers vs Colts: Analytics Reveal Betting Opportunities

The 49ers-Colts matchup on Monday Night Football is one of the week's most compelling betting opportunities.

With Daniel Jones on IR, veteran Philip Rivers is stepping in for his second straight start. Coming back from a 5-year retirement, Rivers posted 120 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT with a negative Passing EPA of -2.53 in his return last weekend. That’s quite a downgrade for a Colts team that was rolling with Daniel Jones. To his credit, it was against the league’s best defense, the Seahawks.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Indianapolis enters this week as one of the league's most efficient teams with a 27.3% Total DVOA ranking 4th overall, powered by an elite offense with 18.5% Offensive DVOA that ranks 2nd in the NFL. That was largely before the Jones injury.

The Colts have a split personality on defense that creates a massive weakness. Their run defense is absolutely elite, ranking 1st in yards per carry allowed at just 3.74 and 5th in total rushing yards. But their pass defense is catastrophically vulnerable, ranking 30th in passing yards allowed at 280.86 per game and dead last in pass attempts allowed.

The 49ers defense has had a rough year with multiple injuries throughout the season. Thank rank last in sacks, last in interceptions, and a lowly 25th in Defensive DVOA. That should be favorable for Rivers who is likely to rely on short distance pass attempts throughout the game.

Monday Night Game Bets

San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (-102)

The math here is straightforward. San Francisco gets to attack the NFL's most porous pass defense while Indianapolis transitions to a conservative, run-first approach with Rivers under center. The Colts' game plan will play directly into their defensive weakness because if the 49ers score early, which they should, Rivers will be forced to throw. The 49ers should control this game from start to finish.

Total Score Under 46.5 (-115)

With Rivers' prop line set at just 157.5 passing yards, the market is already pricing in offensive struggles from Indianapolis. The Colts' elite run defense will force San Francisco to be patient, and the Colts' offense simply won't have the firepower to keep pace. Expect a methodical 49ers win that stays comfortably under this number.

MNF Anytime Touchdown Spotlight

With the soft pass defense in Indianapolis, two 49er pass catchers stand out as touchdown targets tonight.

Jauan Jennings Anytime Touchdown (+155)

Jennings has been dominant in the red zone, ranking 3rd among all wide receivers with 19 red zone targets and 4th with 7 targets inside the 5-yard line. His 7 receiving touchdowns rank 7th among wideouts.

Jennings has scored in 80% of his last five games, signaling he's become a high-priority target for San Francisco near the goal line. This is good value on a player riding a scorching hot streak with elite red zone volume.

George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+122)

Despite playing only 9 games this season, Kittle ranks 4th among all tight ends with 6 receiving touchdowns and carries a remarkable 55.56% hit rate for finding the end zone. What makes him especially dangerous is his usage inside the red zone. He has 3 receptions inside the 5-yard line, ranking 4th among TEs, and his 11 total red zone receptions also rank 4th at the position.

When the 49ers get close, they look for Kittle, and at plus money, this represents great value for a player who scores more often than not.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🔥 Marshawn Lynch wasn't sold on Jaxon until he saw what it could do. Now he and Robinson are all in on it.

🏈 Is it time for the NFL to give up on Christmas games? Can’t wait to watch Chris Oladokun battle against the Broncos.

🏀 The NBA just announced sweeping changes. All in the name of “transparency”.

🏆️ Saban wasn’t subtle with his feelings about these playoffs. Hard to argue with him after a 28-point halftime lead. 

🥊 The least surprising result of the weekend. Paul’s boxing experiment just hit a wall.

Betting Against Colts Offensive Line

If there is one reason why the Colts felt comfortable turning to 44-year-old Philip Rivers, it may involve pass protection.  If Indianapolis can keep the pocket clean, then a savvy veteran should be able to pick apart most any defense, especially one who already understands the system.  

How It Has Mattered in Week 16

I asked Jaxon which offensive lines have been the best and worst so far this season.  Even though sacks are mostly a quarterback stat, things like “pressure rate allowed” help distill what the big guys in front are responsible for.  

The earth-shattering Thursday night game between the Rams and Seahawks showed us why both teams are already destined for the playoffs.  Los Angeles has only allowed a pressure rate of 27.1% when the defense does not blitz, and Seattle gives up a respectable pressure rate of 32.8% on all plays.  Yes, Sam Darnold did get sacked four times Thursday, but the line held up long enough on some deep passes that propelled the Seahawks to the win.

Monday Night’s Offensive Lines

Another elite pass-blocking line resides in northern California.  The 49ers rank fifth in sack rate allowed (4.58%) with a solid pressure rate given up of 34.9%.  Brock Purdy also helps his own cause with the lowest sack rate of any qualifying quarterback this season.  Everyone in the offense works well together.

However, Indianapolis is a tougher situation to analyze.  Sack rate allowed is actually quite good (5.39%, 9th-best in the NFL).  But, the pressure rate allowed is 8th-worst.

Another informative statistic to help us is Pass Block Win Rate.  The definition is simply how often a pass rusher beats his block within 2.5 seconds.  Here, as a team, the Colts rank 27th out of 32 teams.  In other words, the line loses quickly more often than any gunslinger back there would like.

Another Problem for Indy

Now, head coach Shane Steichen told reporters left tackle Bernhard Raimann will not play Monday because of an elbow injury.  He's just one of two massive injuries on the line as right tackle Braden Smith is on injured reserve.

How to Bet It

Even if Rivers relies on getting the ball out quickly and leans on the run game with the great Jonathan Taylor toting the rock, it sure seems like Rivers is going to get sacked. But who will get one?

Jaxon's player prop sheet likes Clelin Ferrell to record a sack.

In addition to all of the problems the Colts have with their pass protection, Ferrell is tied for the team lead with four sacks in just five games played and the payout for us is quite favorable.

It’s also why Jaxon recommends betting on Rivers to throw an interception.  

With that kind of consistent pressure in his face and context of the game requiring more passes, it’s hard not to see a mistake or phenomenal defensive play being made.

Key Takeaway

We have a clear picture for Monday night: Indianapolis' offensive line struggles give us exploitable edges in multiple prop markets. When a veteran quarterback faces persistent pressure with depleted protection, smart money follows the chaos.

🎅 NBA on Christmas Day

Have you been following basketball this season? Personally, I’ve been more focused on NFL and NHL this season, but that’s what Jaxon is for! I asked Jaxon to give me a full statistical breakdown of the Christmas Day matchups to get me up to speed before Christmas.

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