🔥 Conference Final Upsets are Brewing

Both Cup favorites drop Game 1, Montreal has more than hockey to worry about

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What a time to be a sports fan in Montreal. The Canadiens just gave the top-seeded Hurricanes their first loss of the playoffs in Game 1. Not only that, but Montreal will also host the Canadian Grand Prix this weekend, and for the first time in the event's history, Montreal is hosting a Sprint format.

The championship picture heading into this weekend features Kimi Antonelli, 19 years old, who has won three of the first four races of the season and leads the drivers' standings with 100 points. He is the youngest championship leader in Formula 1 history. His teammate George Russell sits 20 points behind in second, and Russell won here last season.

Charles Leclerc is third in the standings, Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton are tied fourth, and Max Verstappen sits down in seventh. Verstappen has 26 points in a Red Bull that has struggled badly under the radical new technical regulations introduced this season, so much that there are regular rumors of him ‘retiring’ in frustration.

Mercedes arrives in Montreal with a significant upgrade package that targets the long straight-line sections where power advantage matters most. Drivers spend roughly three quarters of each lap at full throttle, and then brake down to 58 kilometers per hour for one of the slowest corners on the race calendar. The Wall of Champions at the exit of the final chicane has it’s name for a reason, collecting many world champions over the years.

Last year Russell won from pole with Antonelli finishing third on his Canadian debut. This year Antonelli arrives as the championship leader with momentum that has been impossible to slow. Both will have upgraded cars to take advantage of. The intra-team battle between the two Mercedes drivers separated by 20 points is the central storyline of the race weekend.

Rain is forecast for Sunday, which adds another layer of unpredictability to an already fascinating weekend.

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🏀 Can Spurs Get 1st WCF Home Win Since 2014?

The series is tied 1-1 and heading to San Antonio, where the Spurs went 36-10 this season and won both home regular-season meetings against Oklahoma City.

Game 1 was a double-overtime war that San Antonio stole. Game 2 was a Thunder counterpunch. Wemby left voters doubting their MVP decision after Game 1 but SGA looked every bit like a two-time MVP in their bounce back. Both games went down to the wire and Game 3 in a hostile environment should be no different.

Fox missed both games in OKC with an ankle injury, and his absence was felt. Stephon Castle absorbed the primary responsibilities and committed 20 turnovers across the first two games combined. The Thunder pressure on San Antonio’s inexperienced guards was too much to handle.

Fox's return changes the equation entirely. His season average sits at 18.6 points per game, and tonight’s number reflects injury uncertainty rather than his actual production level.

Fox has cleared tonight’s line in every one of his last five games and in nearly 83% of his home games this season. A home game where his team desperately needs veteran stability at the point is about as favorable a situation as we can have when returning from injury.

Hartenstein emerged as a very important role player in Game 2, grabbing 13 rebounds including 8 offensive boards while physically limiting Wembanyama's interior dominance. He has become Oklahoma City's primary answer to San Antonio's size advantage, and his scoring has followed his increased role.

The Spurs will direct their defensive attention toward SGA and Jalen Williams, leaving Hartenstein to operate in cleaner spaces near the rim. His second-chance opportunities alone should provide enough volume to clear tonight’s line since OKC needs every interior advantage they can manufacture.

🌲 The Pine Line

🚀 An Eagles defender lit up the radar gun on Friday night. It had nothing to do with his 40-yard dash.

🕛️ The curtain is set to close on a historic career. We get to watch one last run for the Super Bowl.

🏎️ NASCAR has lost one of it’s all-time greats. Words can’t begin to describe this loss.

🏆️ Thursday’s title-decided was vintage CR7. The wait for his first Saudi Pro title is over.

💸 Reigning MVP gets one more year and a whole lot of cash. There’s only one name you need to know in this QB room.

🏒 How Makar's Injury Affects Betting Markets

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

So much for the Colorado Avalanche breezing through to the Stanley Cup Final.  Not only did they lose Game 1 at home, they were without their star defenseman Cale Makar because of an undisclosed injury.  

What We Know

Makar left for a portion of the series-clinching win over Minnesota last week when he took a hit and was holding his arm.  Though he returned, Makar did not practice Tuesday and head coach Jared Bednar has called him day to day.

Makar did skate on Thursday but Bednar did not have an update on his status for Game 2.

How it Hurts the Avalanche

Impact on Betting Markets

There are several ripples not just to the outcome of the Western Conference Finals but also to betting markets worth going over.

Conn Smythe

Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon is still the favorite, prior to the start of the Eastern Conference Finals and despite Colorado trailing in the series.  Not only is there not another member of the Avalanche near the top of the board, Makar has plummeted to 80/1 on FanDuel, suggesting he may be out for awhile and/or running out of paths to winning the award.

Series Spread

The Avs are still the favorites to win the series, but it’s likelier all seven games will be needed.  Over 5.5 games is -145 on DraftKings and O6.5 is +172 on FanDuel, both at last check.

Now that we have analyzed all of these moves, here’s what Jaxon and I recommend betting, regardless of Makar’s status going forward:

As mentioned earlier, one phase of Colorado’s game that takes a massive hit without Makar is the power play.  In the regular season, Makar led the Avalanche with 22 power-play assists.  Someone else must step up and be that front-of-the-net dominant presence.

That someone might be Gabriel Landeskog.  The captain has tallied at least one point in three of his last five games and seven of his last ten.  Even if Makar makes a quick return, Landeskog should have more opportunities to help light the lamp.

As we’ve discussed, Vegas is more aggressive getting to the net now than during the regular season.  Without Makar, Mitch Marner has all the more reason to help the Golden Knights play more north-south hockey.

Marner has recorded an assist in three of his last five and seven of his last ten games.  He’s also leading the NHL in shorthanded points with four.  Mitch Marner in great form to nab another one.

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