Three receptions from three targets, 15 total yards, and one game-winning touchdown in the closing minutes. That’s the stat line for 49ers’ Jake Tonges, the most unexpected difference maker in the NFL this weekend.

San Francisco was already down Brandon Aiyuk, and when Jauan Jennings and George Kittle both left with injuries, the offense had to turn to a third-string tight end who had never caught an NFL pass. Out of nowhere, Tonges delivered the moment of his career.

We’ve seen this before.

In 2010, undrafted Free Agent Arian Foster stepped in for an injured Ben Tate and turned it into a 1,600-yard, 16-TDs season. He went on to make 4 Pro Bowls in his eight-year career. In 2016, Tony Romo’s back injury opened the door for rookie Dak Prescott, who still hasn’t given the job back.

This is what makes sports so addictive: a single twist can change the trajectory of a player’s life. Maybe Tonges never gets that kind of run, but for one Sunday in September, he reminded us why we watch. You never know whose name you’ll be talking about when the final whistle blows.

🤖 Jaxon – Your Edge Against the Books

Tired of guessing? Just ask Jaxon.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds, finds the hidden value sportsbooks don’t want you to see, and delivers it straight to you.

🎯 Player Props → Discover the sharpest matchups before kickoff
💎 Plus EV Finder → Spot the bets where the math is on your side
📰 News & Injuries → Get the updates that actually move lines
🏈 Survivor Pool Optimization → Build the path that keeps you alive longest

Whether you’re chasing player props, hunting +EV, or want instant answers to questions like “How does Dak Prescott perform as a home favorite?”, Jaxon has you covered.

It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

Who Surprised, Who Struggled, and Who Stayed the Course

One week doesn’t define a season, but it does set the tone. Spotting which teams are truly overperforming, which are lagging, and which are simply doing what’s expected helps bettors separate noise from signal early. With that in mind, here’s a quick look at three Week 1 teams in very different lanes.

📈 Over Performer: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders came in with low expectations and a brand-new QB in Geno Smith, but they left Foxborough with one of the more impressive road wins of Week 1.

Smith was sharp, throwing for 362 yards while spreading the ball around to Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker. After a shaky first half, the defense completely locked in by piling up four sacks, an interception, and holding New England scoreless in the second half.

What looked like a “mediocre” roster executed like a well-oiled machine, closing it out with 10 unanswered points in the final two quarters.

📉 Under Performer: Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, Cincinnati got the win, but this was far from the statement many expected. 

Joe Burrow managed just 113 passing yards, and the Bengals’ offense scraped together only 141 total yards all game. The Browns actually outgained them by nearly 200 yards and controlled the clock, but costly turnovers and missed kicks bailed the Bengals out. 

Credit the defense for forcing two picks and keeping Cleveland at 16 points, but given the pregame hype and a -5.5 spread, this was a flat offensive debut from a team with Super Bowl expectations.

✅ On Track: Washington Commanders

Washington was expected to handle the Giants, and that’s exactly what they did. 

The Commanders leaned on a bruising ground game (220 rushing yards) and a defense that smothered New York to just six points. Jayden Daniels showed his dual-threat upside, pairing 233 passing yards with 68 on the ground, while Deebo Samuel made his presence felt in his debut. 

This wasn’t flashy, but it was controlled, physical football and exactly the type of performance that confirms Washington’s trajectory rather than changes it.

🌲 The Pine Line

👑 The US Open has a new king. But what makes this run different?

😱 Steelers fans waited 17 years for this. The last time Pittsburgh opened a season like this, history followed.

⛳ Rory saves his best for home. One clutch putt turned The K Club into chaos. 

🔥 The ‘Temple of Speed’ delivered. Verstappen’s win wasn’t just fast, it was the fastest ever.

⚡ Two-way stars don’t exist in today’s NFL… can Hunter revive a role the league left behind?

🏈 Jaxon’s Edge for MNF

The lights are on for another divisional matchup in the NFC North as Vikings vs. Bears caps off Week 1. Chicago’s rolling out a fresh look under a new head coach, while Minnesota’s bringing a blitz-heavy scheme and debuting a new QB. It’s the kind of matchup that screams fireworks.

I used Jaxon to dig into the usage trends and red zone angles to find where the real betting edges are hiding in this game. Let’s break down who’s set up to shine under the Monday night spotlight.

Aaron Jones (MIN) Over 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

Jaxon’s Take: With QB J.J. McCarthy making his first start, expect a heavy dose of checkdowns and safe throws. That plays right into Jones’ dual-threat skillset. He’s cleared this number in 80% of his last 5, 75% of his last 20, and has shredded the Bears in recent matchups.

My Take: This feels like a “let Jones carry us” type of game. Jones has over 100 Rushing + Receiving Yards in four consecutive games against the Bears. He cleared 125 yards in three of those four games. I’m taking 100+ again tonight at +240 on DraftKings.

Adam Thielen (MIN) Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jaxon’s Take: Veteran security blankets matter when rookies debut. Thielen has smashed this number in 100% of his last 5 games and is averaging north of 60 yards per game across a large sample. McCarthy’s likely to lean on short, safe throws which is exactly where Thielen thrives.

My Take: Thielen is the guy I trust to quietly rack up catches and I like his chances to be McCarthy’s “bail-out button”. Even with all the QB issues in Carolina last year, Thielen cashed this in 9 of 10 games averaging over 12 yards per catch + 6 catches per game. 

Cole Kmet (CHI) Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Jaxon’s Take: This line feels disrespectful. Kmet averaged nearly 34 yards per game last season and cleared 10.5 in 79% of games. Against Minnesota last year? 39 per game and 2-for-2 on overs. New HC Ben Johnson knows how to feed tight ends, so expect schemed looks early.

My Take: Ten yards? That’s one catch for Kmet. I don’t see a world where he doesn’t get involved in Johnson’s offense. If you’re looking for a prop that could be decided by the first drive, this is it.

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Jaxon’s Take: McCarthy’s safety valve is going to be Hockenson. He’s topped this line in 3 of his last 5 and has torched Chicago specifically, averaging 83 yards across two meetings last season. Volume plus matchup puts him in a great spot again.

My Take: The Vikings didn’t draft McCarthy to come out and sling 40-yard bombs right away. There is likely to be a lot of focus working over the middle, and that’s Hockenson’s territory. If he gets 6+ targets (which feels likely), this line should be way too low.

Have a different game script in mind?

We asked Jaxon for the best kicker props if we assume poor offensive showings in this matchup. Take a look 👇 

🏆️ MNF Touchdown Props

Monday night’s Bears-Vikings matchup sets up plenty of red zone drama, and a few names stand out as legit touchdown threats. From Jefferson’s star power to Swift’s comfort zone, here are three players worth circling for anytime TD bets.

Adam Thielen (MIN)

Addison’s suspension elevates Thielen into the No. 2 role, and he’s long been a trusted red zone option. His odds are often friendlier than Hockenson’s, yet he still converts plenty of looks inside the 20. Solid value play here and I like the sneaky upside.

Justin Jefferson (MIN)

Sometimes it’s as simple as betting on the best player on the field. Jefferson posted double-digit TDs last season and burned the Bears at Soldier Field with a first-quarter touchdown in their last meeting. His target share in the red zone remains elite, making him the most bankable option in this game.

D’Andre Swift (CHI)

I love Swift’s spot here. Swift has a knack for finding the end zone in Chicago, four of his six scores last year came at Soldier Field. With Roschon Johnson banged up, Swift’s red zone share should climb. If the Bears get inside the five, expect Swift to be the first call.

And the winner is…

Only 14% of the users who competed in the Discord Props Battle got it correct this week and one of them will be winning $50! The winning response was Puka Nacua, who led the group with 106 Receiving Yards.

This week’s $50 winner will be announced today in Discord and the Week 2 Poll will be live in #nfl-chat tomorrow! Don’t miss it!