The final week of the NFL regular season isn't just about playoff seeding and division titles. While teams rest starters and manage workloads, some players have every reason to be on the field chasing their paydays.

The beauty of incentive-driven props is the alignment of interests. When a player needs one more touchdown to trigger $150,000 and his team is still playing for something meaningful, you're betting alongside the player's motivation and the coaching staff's awareness of what's at stake. This week delivers three incentive plays where the opportunity and the matchup converge.

Khalil Shakir: The $150,000 (or $300,000) Touchdown

Khalil Shakir sits on four touchdowns and needs just one more to trigger a $150,000 contract bonus. If he somehow finds the end zone twice, that bonus doubles to $300,000. The Bills have already clinched a playoff spot but are still playing for seeding, and the matchup against a collapsed New York Jets defense creates the perfect chance for Shakir to get paid.

Shakir has established himself as Josh Allen's most reliable target with a 21% target share that ranks 23rd among receivers, but his 10 red zone receptions rank 15th at the position. The issue is he's often been tackled short or used for ball movement rather than the final strike. With $150,000 on the line, expect Allen to look for him specifically to finish a drive.

The Jets' defense has fallen off a cliff. They rank 31st in Defensive DVOA (19.2%) and 30th in touchdown percentage allowed (5.06%). They're giving up scores at one of the highest rates in the league, and their secondary has been shredded over the final month. This is exactly the kind of opponent Khalil wants.

Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown (+260)

Dawson Knox: $200,000 in Two Milestones

In the same game, Dawson Knox is chasing $200,000 across two contract incentives. He needs one more receiving touchdown to earn $100,000 and just 7 more receiving yards to reach 400 and trigger another $100,000.

Knox has stepped up this season while Dalton Kincaid has dealt with absences. Knox ranks 7th among all tight ends in targets inside the 5-yard line with six on the season. He's one of Josh Allen's preferred options when the field shrinks and the Bills need points.

All three of Knox's touchdowns this season have come from within the red zone, and he's averaging 0.8 red zone targets per game, ranked 24th at the position. That's nearly one high-value look every single week, and with the Jets ranking 30th in touchdown percentage allowed, those looks should translate to opportunities.

The yardage incentive is almost a lock. Even if the Bills manage his workload, he's most likely getting those seven yards in the first quarter. The touchdown is the real value play at +250, especially when the coaching staff knows exactly what's at stake.

Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown (+250)

Sam Darnold: $1.5 Million in Three Props

Sam Darnold and the Seahawks face the 49ers in a winner-take-all NFC West showdown, and Darnold is chasing a staggering $1.5 million payday through three specific contract incentives: 150 passing yards ($500k), 3 passing touchdowns ($500k), and raising his completion percentage from 67.2% to over 67.5% ($500k).

The completions prop is the sharpest angle. Darnold needs to raise his efficiency just slightly, which means favoring high-percentage throws over risky downfield shots. He's averaging 18.94 completions per game but the 49ers' defense is 27th in completion percentage allowed (67.74%).

With the 49ers ranking 30th in defense against the completion prop, Darnold is positioned to rack up numbers. He's averaged exactly 20.0 completions per game on the road this season, and with the added motivation of a completion percentage bonus worth half a million, he's likely to favor safe, short passes that push this over the total.

Sam Darnold Over 20.5 Completions (-103)

The touchdown prop is tougher but still viable. Darnold needs three passing touchdowns in this final game to trigger the $500,000 bonus. He's averaging 1.56 passing touchdowns per game this season, rising to 1.67 over his last 15 games. Hitting three would require a season-best performance, but the 49ers' defense has been vulnerable through the air. San Francisco ranks 26th in passing touchdowns allowed (29 total, 1.81 per game) and 31st in interception rate (1.08%). Darnold can take shots in the red zone without worrying about turnovers, and if Seattle gets into a scoring rhythm, three touchdowns is absolutely in play.

Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120)

Not every incentive play works out. Saquon Barkley is within 100 scrimmage yards of a nice payday, but he's likely to rest this weekend. Mack Hollins needed just four more catches for $400,000 but was placed on IR ahead of Week 17 with an abdominal injury. Keenan Allen is six catches away from a massive $750,000 bonus, but he'll have Trey Lance throwing to him instead of Justin Herbert, a significant downgrade that tanks his chances.

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🏈 NFC South Finale: Panthers @ Buccaneers

The Buccaneers and Panthers are fighting for one of the final playoff spots. These teams just met two weeks ago with Carolina pulling out a 23-20 home victory in what was essentially a defensive grind. That result fits the season-long profile of both squads. Neither offense is lighting up scoreboards, and both defenses have shown just flashes of competence. The question heading into Week 18 is whether Tampa Bay can adjust or if Carolina's bizarre win-loss pattern continues.

On paper, the Buccaneers are the better team. Tampa Bay ranks 20th in total DVOA (-8.0%) compared to Carolina's 24th ranking (-13.3%). Offensively, the Bucs sit at -2.3% DVOA (20th) while the Panthers lag at -8.7% (26th). That being said, Tampa has not won a game since November, losing all four by four or fewer points.

The scoring numbers tell a similar story. Tampa Bay averages 22.75 points per game (18th) while Carolina musters just 18.56 (27th). The Buccaneers allow 24.81 points per game (24th), slightly worse than the Panthers' 22.75 (17th). Carolina's offense has struggled to finish drives. They rank 28th in rushing touchdowns (9) and 27th in total touchdowns (31).

Defensively, Tampa ranks 18th and Carolina 21st. The Buccaneers' defense ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed (104.1 per game), but their secondary is vulnerable, ranking 28th in passing yards allowed (271.8 per game). Where things get interesting is the turnover battle. The Buccaneers boast a +5 turnover differential (5th), protecting the football better than almost anyone in the league. The Panthers counter with an opportunistic defense that ranks 7th in total interceptions (14) and 11th in passing yards allowed (227.4 per game). Baker Mayfield has thrown 10 interceptions this season, and Carolina's secondary will be hunting for their next takeaway.

On the flip side, the Panthers rank 32nd in QB hits (22) and 32nd in QB pressures (82), meaning Baker Mayfield should have a clean pocket for most of the afternoon. Carolina simply cannot generate pressure, ranking 31st in pressure rate, which gives Mayfield time to operate and exploit the underneath routes where his dual-threat running backs thrive.

The Win-One, Lose-One Phenomenon

Here's one of the strangest trends in the NFL this season: since Week 7, the Panthers have alternated wins and losses every single week. Win one game, lose the next. Repeat. Following their 27-10 loss to the Seahawks last week, the pattern suggests Carolina is "due" for a victory if this bizarre streak holds.

Is this sustainable? Of course not. But it's a fascinating psychological quirk that speaks to Carolina's ability to bounce back after a bad game.

🪄 Saturday Night Predictions

The line opened at Buccaneers -3.5 but has moved to -3.0 after early action on the Panthers' ability to keep games tight. The moneyline sits at Tampa Bay -148 and Carolina +134. The total is set at 43.5, matching the exact score of their Week 16 meeting (43 combined points). Given both teams rank in the bottom half of offensive DVOA, the Under feels like the sharper side.

Carolina Panthers Moneyline (+134)

It’s effectively a coin flip, and I’m inclined to side with the underdog odds. The Buccaneers haven’t won since November and it seems like it will come down to a fourth quarter finish once again.

Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (-141)

Mayfield has been productive this season, but his risk-taking has led to consistent turnovers. He's thrown at least one interception in 80% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.62 interceptions per game. He threw one pick in their Week 16 matchup with Carolina, and over the last two years against the Panthers he's averaging 1 interception per game.

The matchup screams interception. Carolina ranks 7th in the NFL with 14 interceptions (0.87 per game) and 8th in interception rate defense (2.68%). Mayfield has been sacked 34 times this season, and while Carolina's sack rate is low (26th), their ability to force him to hold the ball too long or throw into tight windows has consistently resulted in turnovers.

Mayfield's aggression combined with Carolina's opportunistic secondary makes this one of the safer plays of the slate.

Rachaad White Over 22.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

This line is absurdly low for a player averaging 46.81 total yards per game and hitting the over in 81.25% of his games this season. White has cleared this number in 90% of his last 10 games and 85% of his last 20 games. Even with Bucky Irving taking more traditional rushing attempts, White remains a vital part of the passing game, ranking 10th among all RBs in receptions (38) and 4th in red zone receptions (9).

Against Carolina earlier this season, White recorded 60 total yards, nearly tripling this current line. The Panthers rank 25th in defense against this specific prop for running backs, meaning they're in the bottom tier of the league at containing dual-threat backs. They allow significant yards after catch, and White ranks 17th among RBs in receiving YAC (305).

The advanced metrics highlight White's efficiency. His 88.37% catch percentage ranks in the 2nd percentile among running backs, making him one of Baker Mayfield's most reliable targets.

Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown (+135)

This is largely another contract incentive play, with Dowdle owed an additional $250k if he can add one more touchdown to his name. He has yet to score against a Tampa defense that is tough against the run, ranking 7th in rushing yards allowed, but Rico has been a workhorse for his team all season with 1,343 yards this year. He deserves as much bonus money as they can give him, especially the $1 Million once he hits 1,350 yards.

 🌲 The Pine Line

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🏀 Eight games across the NBA tonight. Discover high confidence player props from Pine. 

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✈️ Business or pleasure? Busy weekend for Olympic hopefuls.

💰️ A licensing mess threatened to shut down sports betting on New Years. The lawsuit isn’t going away. 

🏈 AFC North Title Game Best Bets

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Lamar Jackson’s injury report this season reads like the end credits to a Marvel movie, which makes sense given the Ravens quarterback might be a superhero:

• Hamstring strain against the Chiefs

• Ankle, toe and knee injuries throughout the season

• A flu-like illness contracted during Week 16

• Back contusion against the Patriots, forcing him to miss last week

Injury Impact

These injuries have taken their toll. Jackson's production has declined, particularly on the ground, with his rushing yards per game dropping noticeably compared with other mobile quarterbacks:

Ravens at Steelers

Jackson told reporters this week he will play Sunday against Pittsburgh.  That’s huge, because the winner of that contest takes the division crown and earns a home playoff game, while the loser is done for the season.  

Using Jaxon’s prop sheets and AI interface, here are three bets to consider for closing out the NFL regular season strong:

Jackson U17.5 Completions (-118)

Even a fully healthy Jackson would face completion challenges in this matchup.

The Steelers defense allows roughly 24 completions per game, the lowest in the NFL.  Part of the reason is their incredible pass rush, led by T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.  

Jackson's response to pressure differs from most quarterbacks. Rather than checking down, he prefers to scramble and either launch it deep or take off running. This decision-making style explains why he ranks 40th in pass attempts per game (23.67).

Combined with potential accuracy issues from his lingering injuries, completions could be hard to come by Sunday.

Zay Flowers O60.5 Receiving Yards (-102)

When Jackson does connect downfield, Zay Flowers tends to be the recipient.

In the previous meeting with Pittsburgh, the Ravens standout was on fire, finishing with 124 receiving yards on eight catches.  While it's only his second 100-yard game this season (the other coming against Buffalo in Week 1), the circumstances favor a repeat performance.

Flowers commands a 29% target share, ranking sixth among all wide receivers in the NFL.  He’s also 12th in the league with a 34% air yard share.  The matchup and the consistent production put him in a great position to exceed his receiving yards prop.  

Derrick Henry: O17.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)

No Ravens analysis would be complete without praising King Henry.

Lamar Jackson didn’t play last week.  Everyone knew who was getting the ball; and yet, Henry STILL torched Green Bay for 216 rushing yards and four touchdowns.  

Pittsburgh may choose to stack the box frequently anyway, but if Jackson is healthy enough to burn them on the ground, those defenders may have to respect quarterback keepers enough for holes to open and Henry to bust through.  

Henry’s total rush EPA of 8.13 ranks ninth in the NFL, further proving his value when it comes to keeping the offense on schedule.  It may be predictable Derrick Henry gets the football, it’s another thing to try and stop him.  

Key Takeaways

This winner-take-all matchup favors Baltimore's ground game and explosive plays. Jackson's health means his passing volume is uncertain, while Henry's workload remains the one constant you can bank on.

That’s a wrap on the regular season!

Still not sure what to play this weekend? Use the Parlay Generator for instant picks or ask Jaxon to break down any matchup you’re considering. The tools are here to give you an edge when it matters most.

Good luck this weekend.