Tarik Skubal pitched well enough Tuesday night in his first start as a Dodger but still walked off the mound with a loss. Six innings, four hits, two earned runs, and six punchouts on 85 pitches. A Dansby Swanson solo shot in the third and a high chopper from Nico Hoerner accounted for most of the damage against him. Los Angeles managed just one run on four hits and lost 5-1 to the Cubs, their fifth straight loss. The rest of the league got one evening of satisfaction out of it, which may be all they get.

While fans across the league will find pleasure in the Skubal loss, the bigger story is what the trade did to the labor dispute. The Dodgers were already carrying a $431 million payroll before adding a back to back Cy Young winner to a rotation behind Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell and Glasnow.

The current CBA expires December 1, and insiders are bracing for a lockout the following day. The league wants a hard cap at $245.3 million, a floor at $171.2 million, a 50/50 revenue split, and a $1 million minimum salary. Eight clubs would have to cut spending, twelve would have to spend a combined $617 million more. That just shows how skewed the financial situations are across the league.

Manfred's pitch is that the payroll gap shrinks from roughly seven to one down to 1.4 to one. Bruce Meyer and the union call the cap subsidized mediocrity and argue players already receive north of 54% of revenue, making the offer a pay cut wearing a suit.

Both sides are funded for a fight. The union sits on $415 million, the league on a reported $2 billion, and some owners are reportedly willing to lose the entire 2027 season.

For now the Dodgers remain +145 to three-peat, ahead of the Yankees at +600 and Brewers at +900, five game skid included.

⚾ Home Run Cheat Sheet

Pine’s Home Run Sheet gives you everything you need to pick tonight’s home run hitters:

Projections & Odds – Jaxon's HR projection and live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has gone deep over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

⚾️ Vulnerable Pitchers to Target Today

Three plays today, all built on starters who cannot avoid contact and hitters positioned to punish it.

Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 Hits Runs RBIs (-137)

Eric Lauer brings a 6-5 record and 4.50 ERA to Wrigley, with some projection systems pegging his true form closer to 5.28. His WHIP of 1.19 looks tidy, but he throws a low nineties four seamer 44% of the time and has long had trouble with right handed power.

Chicago has won 19 of their last 30 and Suzuki has been the engine, clearing this line in 90% of his last 20 games while averaging 3.1 per game. His 15 game rate sits at 86.67% against a 60% season mark. Wrigley grades at 96 park factors, slightly against hitters, which is the only wrinkle.

Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 Hits Runs RBIs (+110)

Jameson Taillon debuts for Toronto carrying a 2-6 record and 5.92 ERA into the ninth most hitter friendly park in baseball, one that lifts home runs 14% above average. His whiff rate is low, meaning he survives on batted ball fortune, and the current Astros roster has slugged .602 against him.

Alvarez owns a .649 slugging mark and .306 ISO versus righties this year, plus a .333 average with a homer across 17 career trips against Taillon. He has hit safely in five straight and had a four hit game earlier this week. At home he averages 2.75 in this category, and he has walked in nine of his last ten games.

Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits Runs RBIs (-127)

Tomoyuki Sugano sits at 11-4 with a 4.47 ERA but has already allowed 15 home runs to left handed bats, and his four seamer has yielded a .422 xwOBA. Caminero is slugging .671 against that pitch. Coors ranks first overall in park factors at 113 with a 128 runs factor and 117 hits factor.

Junio Caminero has averaged 2.1 HRR over his last ten games, totaling 21, and has two hits in three consecutive games, going 4 for 11 at altitude in Denver so far this series. He closed out last night’s game with an extra inning RBI single for the comeback win.

🌲 The Pine Line

🙈 The 15th pick of 2025 could be done for the season. This one will hit the Falcons’ sideline hard.

💸 The running back market price has been set. Bijan is now the highest-paid back in history.

🏀 Kyrie sat out the entire 25-26 season for injury. Last time he was in this spot, he won a championship.

🪨 Infantino is stuck in between a rock and a hard place. It’s time to panic for top FIFA officials.

🏈 The AFC North Is Rebuilding

 Every division goes through a facelift every few offseasons. The AFC North is doing all four teams at once. Baltimore fired a coach with eighteen years of stability behind him. Pittsburgh moved on from the only voice its locker room had known for two decades. Cincinnati gutted a defense that fell apart in historic fashion. Cleveland traded away the best player on its roster. Four teams, four identity resets, and one division that still has to be won by somebody.

Here's where the numbers point for each AFC North team heading into 2026.

Baltimore Ravens: the team built to bounce back

An 8-9 finish last year undersold this roster badly. Lamar Jackson missed a quarter of the season and the losing record that felt more like injury noise than a real evaluation of the team's talent. When healthy, this offense ran the ball better than anyone in football, but it barely threw it, finishing dead last in pass attempts per game. 

The bigger issue was defensive. Baltimore couldn't generate pressure to save its life, landing near the bottom of the league in sacks and sack rate. Trey Hendrickson arrives after producing thirty five sacks across two healthy seasons, addressing the single biggest hole on the roster. 

A new staff, led by Jesse Minter and offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, is expected to open up a passing attack that had grown far too one dimensional. Zay Flowers got locked up long term after carrying more than a third of the receiving load on his own last season. Losing center Tyler Linderbaum stings, but a healthy Lamar Jackson paired with a defense that finally has an edge rusher again is the kind of jump that shows up in win totals. Baltimore is the correct favorite to win the division, and betting the over on their 11.5 season win total is the play.

🎯 Don't Guess, Ask Jaxon

Before you lock in tonight's slate, run it by Jaxon first.

Live odds, matchup breakdowns, and player prop analysis in seconds, no scrolling through tabs just to bet on the game.

👉️ Click to Try Jaxon on Pine Sports