🏈 Don't Sleep on Preseason Futures

The preseason always brings its fair share of soap operas. Terry McLaurin just locked up his bag, Micah Parsons is napping on the sideline, Joe Mixon hit the reserve list, and every day another camp holdout trickles back in. For bettors, these storylines aren’t just Twitter drama. These stories swing win totals and season-long props in real time. Fantasy ADP changes by the news cycle. One headline can flip a team from clueless to contenders.

That’s why preseason is more than just practice games. It’s the market moving in plain sight. Futures lines adjust with every headline, and the bettors paying attention now are the ones locking in value before Week 1 even arrives. Which is exactly why today, we’re digging into some futures that jumped off the board.

📊 Bet Smarter: NFL Sheets are LIVE

Don’t just stare at box scores—Jaxon turns raw stats into insights you can actually use.

• Prop Sheets on every player across passing, rushing, receiving, and more

• Hit rates for L5, L10, L20, and season-long splits

• Context you need: home/away, vs opponent, DvP, projections, and best available odds

• Stunning visualizations that make edges jump off the screen

• One-click workflow: Ask Jaxon, add to betslip, done

NFL season is almost here—don’t walk into Week 1 without an edge.

📊 NFL Futures Markets to Consider

When it comes to predicting win totals, the market bakes in roster turnover, QB play, advanced metrics like ESPN’s FPI, and the overall strength of playmakers. But projections aren’t perfect—and that’s where opportunity lives.

Here are a few Regular Season Win Totals that Jaxon and I see long-term value in:

Dallas Cowboys – Over 7.5 Wins (-120 on BetMGM)

Jaxon’s Take: Dallas feels undervalued. Dak’s injury tanked their 2024 season, but this is the same roster that rattled off three straight 12-win years (2021-2023). With health and upgraded weapons, 7.5 looks like a gift.

My Take: Only seven and a half? I ran through their schedule, gave them losses on every toss-up, and they still got to 8 wins. Add George Pickens next to CeeDee Lamb and Dak’s got no excuses. This line is begging for an over ticket.

Kansas City Chiefs – Over 11.5 Wins (+115 on ESPNBet)

Jaxon’s Take: The schedule looks tough on paper—Eagles, Ravens, Bills—but home-field advantage is huge. Four of their toughest matchups land at Arrowhead, where KC went 8-0 last season. Even with regression, double-digit wins are the floor.

My Take: I wanted to fade them. I really did. But the schedule is softer than it looks, especially with most coin-flip games at home. Call it 6 true toss-ups and KC hosts 4 of them. That’s how a “tough” 12-win season suddenly feels like the baseline.

Las Vegas Raiders – Over 7.5 Wins (+130 on ESPNBet)

Jaxon’s Take: Pete Carroll brings stability. In 18 seasons as a head coach, only four ended with fewer than eight wins. That track record alone suggests the Raiders will flirt with .500 or better. Expert projections have them around 9-8, which clears the 7.5 mark comfortably.

My Take: If you want the safer sweat, Over 6.5 is the play. But I like swinging for over 7.5 wins at plus money. Yes, the schedule is brutal—travel heavy early, playoff teams stacked late—but Carroll-coached teams don’t fold. I think they grind their way to at least 7 wins, and if things break right, they cash the Over.

Denver Broncos - Over 9.5 Wins (-115 on ESPNBet)

Jaxon’s Take: Denver’s trending up. They went 10-7 last year despite a brutal 1-6 record in one-score games—meaning they were better than the record shows. The offensive line is elite, the defense added more weapons, and Bo Nix looked like a different QB down the stretch (19 TDs in his final 7 games). Add in early schedule softness (7 of the first 11 at home) and Sean Payton’s system in Year 2, and the ingredients are here for double-digit wins again.

My Take: I’m buying the Broncos this year. They’ve got the rare combo of an elite O-line and a defense that can win games on its own. Bo Nix isn’t Mahomes, but he doesn’t have to be. He just has to keep last year’s momentum rolling. The early schedule is soft enough to rack up wins before the Chiefs show up on the calendar. Ten wins feels like the floor, not the ceiling.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 URUGUAY STUNS TEAM USA. Uruguay waited 24 years to beat Team USA again… and they did it as a 14 to 1 underdog.

👀 Amari Cooper’s Cheat Codes. Deadly on posts, flats, and slants. Just don’t ask him to run a nine.

💰 McLaurin Gets His Bag. While he's counting millions, Micah’s counting the days. 

🕑 Two-Minute Drill… For Who? Browns gave the clutch reps to a QB who didn’t even make the roster. Make it make sense.  

🛢️ FanDuel is moving beyond sports betting. Their next profit boost? Betting on the price of oil instead of Mahomes’ passing yards.

⚾️ Today’s Top Baseball Bets

Football might be stealing the spotlight, but the baseball slate is still packed with value. Between hot bats, hitter-friendly parks, and a few sneaky pitcher props, Jaxon’s models flagged some spots where the numbers lean heavier than the lines. Here are three plays worth a look tonight:

Boston/Baltimore Over 8.5 Runs (-130 on ESPNBet)

The data points to the over. Boston and Baltimore combine for over nine runs per game both offensively and defensively, and Camden Yards adds extra juice with a homer-friendly park factor. Bello has held most Orioles in check, but Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser have found ways to do damage. On the other side, Dietrich Enns’s numbers look strong, but the sample size is too thin to matter. Factor in Boston’s hot bats and Baltimore’s leaky run prevention, and the Over 8.5 has clear value.

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115 on DraftKings)

Carroll has cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI in 80% of his last five and 70% of his last ten, averaging nearly 2.6 per game in that span. Against Milwaukee this season, he’s been even better—hitting the Over in 4 of 5 matchups with a 3.4 average.

Quinn Priester doesn’t have much history against him, but Carroll’s overall consistency and his success vs. the Brewers make this a spot to back.

Aaron Civale Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-125 on DraftKings)

Civale has gone Over 3.5 Ks in 4 of his last 5 starts (80%), averaging 5.6 per game in that stretch. His season-long rate sits at just over 4 strikeouts per start, and at home he’s cashed this prop in 75% of appearances.

Kansas City doesn’t do him many favors on paper—he’s struck them out at a rate of only 17.6% across his career—but the Royals rank 28th in scoring this year. That weakness gives Civale a shot to pitch deeper, which boosts strikeout opportunities.

That’s a wrap on this week’s futures board and MLB picks. Got a take of your own? Tag us on X @PineSports_AI hop into the Discord—always better when the bets (and the banter) are shared.