Jordan Spieth walked into Memphis as the only player in the field without a top ten finish all season, then opened with a bogey-free 65 for a share of the clubhouse lead.

Spieth arrived 54th in the FedExCup standings, needing roughly a top 25 to reach the BMW Championship next week. One round later he projects to 22nd. Twenty-one starts this season produced nothing better than a pair of 11th place ties in March, and July brought a missed cut at The Open at 10 over. He described the stretch from the Memorial through the British as a period where he pressed for something he did not need.

The underlying numbers have been kinder than the leaderboards. He is gaining 0.738 strokes per round overall, with approach at +0.278 and putting at +0.196. That approach work is the reason to pay attention, since TPC Southwind has some of the smallest greens on tour and Spieth ranks in the 91st percentile from 50 to 100 yards. No winner here in 14 years has finished outside the top 20 in approach that season.

The concern is driving accuracy, where he sits in the 35th percentile on a course with 25-yard fairways and more water balls since 2004 than anywhere on tour. Thursday was also uncharacteristically calm which allowed Jordan to hit nine of 14 fairways and rank tenth off the tee in the early wave. He recorded eight straight pars to start, then five birdies across the next seven holes.

Spieth was +6600 before the first tee shot. The best option now is his top ten finish at +126. He finished T6 here in 2023 for one of his best results in the last few years.

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⚾️ MLB Total Score Projections

A full slate and a lot of tough pitching matchups to sort through. Focusing on pitcher ERA and park factors, Jaxon helped identify tonight’s most vulnerable spots.

🔥 Cardinals at Cubs Over 8.0

The early game at Wrigley sets up nicely for runs. Matthew Liberatore brings a 5.15 ERA along with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings, which is a profile that gets punished by good offenses. The Cubs qualify. They lead the majors in wRC+ at 112.32 and sit second in runs scored with 634.

Liberatore has also struggled against this specific roster across 131 career plate appearances, allowing a .277 average and a .360 wOBA. Alex Bregman has hit .429 against him and Nico Hoerner has a .357 average.

Wrigley is playing at a 102 home run factor today, so the conditions should cooperate. Clay Holmes has been solid on the other side, but the Chicago staff behind him ranks 24th in FIP at 4.65 and gives runs back when balls are put in play.

🔥 Marlins at Reds Over 7.5

Great American ballpark ranks fifth overall in park factors with a 117 home run mark and a 104 for runs, which is the main argument for this one. Sandy Alcantara starts on the mound tonight, and Elly De La Cruz owns a .459 wOBA against him across their career meetings.

The bigger issue is Cincinnati's own pitching, 24th in ERA at 4.49 and 26th in FIP at 4.69, facing a Miami offense that ranks eighth in OPS at .732. Sharp money is close to even on the over despite an ace being listed.

🔥 Rangers at Athletics Over 9.5

Two shaky pitching staffs in one matchup. The Athletics rank last in both ERA at 5.53 and FIP at 5.00, and has allowed a league-worst 704 runs. Kumar Rocker has been battered by this exact lineup, surrendering a .378 average and .455 wOBA over 43 plate appearances, with Tyler Soderstrom at .571 and Jacob Wilson at .556. Texas ranks 13th in wRC+ at 102.3, efficient enough to hold up their end.

🌲 The Pine Line

💰️ Déjà vu for Lakers fans this offseason. $2.5 billion is a decent return after just one year.

⚾️ Boston had a historic run. then a crash landing back to reality. Their rookie pitcher just got them back on track.

🏈 Mendoza completed his first preseason test as the Raiders QB. Fans are already proclaiming him as the next Brady.

⚽️ It’s hard to talk sports without gambling coming up. Premier League clubs voted to change the norms this season.

🔥 Combo Props Built on Pitcher Matchups

Tonight's Hits+Runs+RBIs board leans less on form and more on who's on the mound.

➡️ Daylen Lile Hits+Runs+RBIs

Robert Stock has been rough since arriving with the Mets, sitting at 0-2 with a climbing ERA and a recent split against lefties of .391/.500/.652. Washington brings the offense best suited to punish that, ranking first in the majors in both runs with 655 and OPS at .769.

Daylen Lile has been central to it, sitting in the 91st percentile in RBIs with 64 and the 90th in hits with 113. He has cleared this line in four of his last five games while averaging three per game. His splits line up too, with 83 of those hits and 49 of the RBIs coming against right handers, plus a road wRC+ of 101.19 that exceeds his season mark. Against New York last year he went over in 80% of meetings at a 2.6 average.

➡️ Jac Caglianone Hits+Runs+RBIs

Angel Stadium plays neutral at 100 overall with a 103 home run factor, so this rests entirely on the matchup. Rodriguez has faced this Royals roster only 14 times, and they have hit .455 with a 1.000 slugging mark and .623 wOBA in that window.

Caglianone has gone over in four of his last five and seven of his last ten, averaging 1.91 on the season. In two games against Los Angeles this year he cleared it both times at a 4.0 average, and his 120.71 wRC+ ranks in the 83rd percentile.

⚾ Chasing Home Runs Tonight?

Jaxon has projections, live odds, hit rates, and a confidence score for every player on the slate, so you're not just guessing who goes deep.

👉️ Click for the Home Run Sheet