Eight teams remain. On Saturday, the two top seeds will get their first dose of playoff football this season. In the afternoon, the Buffalo Bills bring the league's most explosive rushing attack to face Denver’s relentless defense. In the evening, the San Francisco 49ers travel to Seattle to challenge a defensive juggernaut riding a seven-game winning streak.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos

This matchup pits the NFL's most prolific rushing attack against one of its most opportunistic defenses. The Bills lead the league in rushing yards at 159.65 per game and rushing touchdowns with 30, ranking 2nd in yards per carry at 4.96. Their efficiency on third downs (46.83%, 3rd) shows they consistently stay in manageable situations.

Denver operates with a completely different philosophy. They're the best in the league at protecting the quarterback, allowing a sack rate of just 3.75%. That’s been a big part of their 11 one-possession wins this season. They aren't explosive, ranking 26th in yards per play, but they're efficient and disciplined.

The defensive mismatch is stark. Denver ranks 5th in Defensive DVOA and leads the NFL in sacks (68), QB hits (79), and QB pressure rate (38.45%). They allow just 3.87 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd in the league.

Jaxon's Prediction: Buffalo Bills

While Denver has the superior defense and home-field advantage, this game comes down to the quarterback mismatch. Josh Allen is the ultimate force multiplier, and Buffalo's 1st-ranked rushing attack will test Denver in a way they haven't been tested all season.

My Prediction: Denver Broncos

Against top-10 defenses this season, Josh Allen’s passing yards drop from 229.25 per game to 189.50 and his completion percentage falls from 69.35% to 63.0%. The Bills are 1-4 in these matchups. Denver's elite pass rush will bottle up Allen's playmaking.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks enter 13-3 on a seven-game winning streak with the 1st-ranked defense in the league. The 49ers are 12-5 and aiming to prove their Week 18 loss to Seattle, where they managed just 173 total yards and 3 points, was a fluke.

Seattle has reached a rare statistical milestone, ranking 1st in both defensive and total DVOA. Historically, four of the last five teams to achieve this since 1985 have won the Super Bowl. Mike Macdonald's defense allows just 17.3 points per game and generates a 35.1% pressure rate.

The 49ers counter with an offense that ranks 2nd in DVOA. Brock Purdy has been elite since returning from injury, leading the team to an average of 34.25 points per game between Weeks 9 and 17. However, their defense ranks 27th in DVOA and 32nd in sack rate.

The injury situation is catastrophic for San Francisco. George Kittle joined Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Brandon Aiyuk on IR.

Jaxon's Prediction: Seattle Seahawks

The metrics overwhelmingly favor Seattle. They possess the number one defense in the league and are facing a 49ers defense that ranks in the bottom eight. The loss of Kittle and Seattle's elite pass rush will make it difficult for Purdy to make any progress.

My Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

I backed them in the Wild Card round, and I'm backing them again this week. Purdy has averaged 281.33 passing yards against Top 10 defenses, significantly higher than his 240.78 season average. He's averaged only 0.33 interceptions per game in these matchups, compared to 1.11 overall.

👇️ Scroll down for Sunday’s predictions!

👀 See the Game Differently with Radar Charts

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Radar charts are live, letting you visualize the stats that power each matchup, from efficiency to usage to defensive splits, all in one glance.

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No more guessing why a prop looks favorable.

🏈 Divisional Round Continued

Sunday afternoon, the Houston Texans bring the league's most feared defense to Foxborough to challenge Drake Maye and the Patriots. In the evening, the LA Rams host a Chicago Bears team that thrives on creating turnovers and playing the underdog role.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots rank 3rd in offensive DVOA and lead the league in yards per play at 6.56 and completion percentage at 71.9%, but Houston's defense has held opponents to just 17.4 points per game and rank 2nd in defensive DVOA.

Drake Maye is the frontrunner for MVP, leading the league in Passing EPA at 165.16 and completion percentage. Maye has a 93.4 passer rating compared to C.J. Stroud's 60.9. Stroud struggled significantly in the Wild Card round, fumbling five times and throwing an interception. While Stroud is capable of cleaning it up, it doesn’t take advanced metrics to see that Maye is operating at a much higher level.

The key matchup is Houston's pass rush versus Maye's mobility. The Texans feature the league's most feared pass-rushing duo in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., both of whom recorded 12-plus sacks this season. Houston is number one in passing efficiency allowed, but they're dead last in efficiency against QB scrambles, allowing a league-high 9.2 yards per carry on such plays. Maye led the NFL with 62 QB scrambles this season, totaling 423 yards. If Houston's aggressive front gets too deep in the pocket, get ready to cash in on Maye’s rushing yards prop.

Jaxon's Prediction: New England Patriots

While the Texans' defense is arguably the best unit in the league, the disparity at the quarterback position is too large to ignore. Maye is playing at an MVP level, leading the league in EPA and completion percentage, and he possesses the specific scrambling ability to exploit Houston's lone defensive weakness.

My Prediction: New England Patriots

The Texans defense is legit, but Vrabel and the Patriots will be able to do what the Steelers couldn't last week: score points.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears

The Rams enter as the number one ranked offense in DVOA. Their lethal passing attack is averaging 285.71 passing yards per game, ranking 2nd, with Matthew Stafford as the engine. He threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns in the Wild Card round. Puka Nacua led the NFL with 129 receptions and ranked second with 1,715 yards this season.

The Bears are a top-tier rushing team, ranking 3rd in rushing yards per game at 144.18 and 3rd in yards per carry at 4.85. D'Andre Swift is the primary catalyst, coming off a 54-yard, one-touchdown performance against Green Bay. However, they face a Rams defense that's elite at stopping the run, ranking 1st in rushing touchdowns allowed at just 0.47 per game.

Chicago’s defense is a bend-but-don't-break unit that relies heavily on takeaways, leading the NFL in defensive interception rate at 4.13% with 22 total picks. However, their underlying metrics are concerning. They rank 27th in yards allowed at 385.76 per game and 28th in yards per play allowed at 6.4. The Bears may struggle if they can't force Stafford into uncharacteristic mistakes.

Jaxon's Prediction: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams' offensive efficiency is simply too high for a Chicago defense that struggles to stop the pass and limit yards per play. While Caleb Williams will likely keep the game competitive, the Rams' ability to sustain long drives and protect Matthew Stafford will be the deciding factor.

My Prediction: Chicago Bears

The Bears are 2-1 as home underdogs this season, including a massive statement win over Dallas and a thrilling comeback against Green Bay just days ago. I think they grind out another 2nd half comeback.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 Fourth all-time and closing in on Top-3. He’ll never catch Harden and Curry at the top. 

⚾️ The reigning champions just added another all-star. How is anyone expected to compete this year?

⛸️ Two-time national champion qualifies for the Olympics. A Passport delay stands between them and Milan. 

↔️ Kuminga made on thing very clear. He doesn’t want to be a Warrior. 

🏏 The USA U19 squad opened up their World Cup campaign against India. It went how you’d expect against cricket’s best side. 

🏀 The season has reached it’s halfway point. There have been some pleasant surprises. 

💸 NFL Divisional Round Parlay

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Here’s a fun way to enjoy this weekend’s playoff games: a four-legged parlay with one prop bet from every game.  The tools I will be using in my betting lab are Jaxon’s PrizePicks sheet where I can see projections and confidence levels for every prop, and Jaxon’s AI interface to help round out the research.  

Here’s what I concocted:

Bo Nix O0.5 INT (-112)

The weekend starts with the home underdog Denver Broncos hosting the Buffalo Bills at 4:30p.m. ET Saturday.  Much of the logic behind this play centers on a Bills defense that hasn’t always been dominant, but could be just good enough to force Denver’s quarterback into mistakes.

Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in quarterback hit rate (10.99%) and 11th in pressure rate (28.45%). While Denver’s pass protection has been excellent, it only takes one disrupted rep for Nix to rush a throw, and defenders like Cole Bishop or Christian Benford are ready to capitalize.

That matchup is one of the big reasons why Denver is not favored: a young quarterback going up against a defense that disguises coverages and jumps routes frequently.  If the game script pushes Nix into throwing more often, the chances of an interception only rise.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba O94.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Next is San Francisco at Seattle at 8:00p.m. ET Saturday.  Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been en fuego, surpassing this mark in 60% of his last 15 games:

It’s obvious where the ball is going, and still defenses haven’t been able to stop him.  JSN leads all wide receivers with a 36% target share and a 49% air yard share.  Nearly half of Seattle’s intended passing distance flows through him. You don’t reach those numbers unless the coaching staff fully trusts you and you consistently deliver.

For the Niners, linebacker Fred Warner has returned to practice after an ankle injury last October.  He could suit up, but this is a matchup that demands elite play. Smith-Njigba should be in position to clear his receiving yards prop once again.

TreVeyon Henderson U39.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Sunday kicks off with Texans at Patriots at 3:00p.m. ET.  Let’s look at how New England’s rookie running back has performed this season: 

Two games stand out: a 147-yard outing against Tampa Bay and a 148-yard performance against Buffalo.  However, in every other contest, his results have been more modest.  

Two factors suggest Henderson will have a quieter game.  First, Henderson continues to split work with Rhamondre Stevenson. In last week’s Wild Card win, Stevenson played 62% of the snaps compared with Henderson’s 41%. As playoff intensity ramps up, the lead back typically absorbs more of the workload.

Second, the Texans have an elite defense, allowing 93.7 rushing yards per contest (fourth in the NFL) 3.98 yards per carry (seventh in the league).  The lack of opportunities and the matchup suggest betting under 39.5 rushing yards for Henderson.  

That’s the Divisional Round.

The favorites look strong on paper, but the underdogs all have paths to victory. Let’s see who survives to the Conference Championships. If you still don’t know who to bet on, take a look at Pine’s Player Prop sheets or the Plus EV sheets for quick and easy value.