The 2025-26 NBA season has reached about the midpoint, and we have plenty of actionable data to work with. While full-game lines get much of the attention, the sharpest bettors have been quietly exploiting first quarter and first half team tendencies.

The appeal of early-game betting is simple: you avoid late-game fouling, garbage time variance, and random bench units deciding your fate. The opening 12 minutes reflect coaching game plans and starter matchups in their purest form.

This season, three teams have separated themselves as elite early-game plays. The San Antonio Spurs lead the league with a 24-11 first half ATS record (+4.8 average margin). The Denver Nuggets aren't far behind at 22-12 in the first quarter (+3.0), leveraging their elite starting unit to build frequent early leads. The Houston Rockets have been the best road first half team in the NBA at 12-7 ATS (+5.65).

🏀 Knicks @ Pistons: Detroit's Early Resilience

The Knicks are just 14-21-1 in first quarter moneyline and 16-18-1 ATS in the opening frame. On the road specifically, they're 5-11 with a -0.56 average margin. Detroit counters with an 20-15 first quarter record despite a slow start in the season

Jalen Brunson averages 10.3 PPG in the first quarter, but with Josh Hart and Landry Shamet both out, New York's defensive rotations take a hit. Detroit is missing Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris.

The Lean: Detroit has been undervalued in first quarters all season. If the Knicks are favored in the first Quarter, the Pistons offer value.

🏀 Bulls @ Celtics: Elite Starters vs. Depleted Depth

Boston is 20-13-1 in first quarter moneyline and 19-13-1 ATS (+3.7). The Bulls are 13-19-3 overall but have been trending up lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 opening quarters.

The injury situation tilts this heavily toward Boston. The Celtics are missing Jayson Tatum, but the Bulls are decimated without Josh Giddey, Coby White, and Zach Collins. Even without Tatum, Boston's system should overwhelm an undermanned Chicago roster.

The Lean: Celtics 1Q spread if it's under 3 points.

🏀 Hawks @ Raptors: Road Warriors vs. Home Strugglers

Atlanta is 20-14-3 in first quarter moneyline overall, and on the road they're a strong 12-8. The Hawks travel well and settle into games quickly. Toronto is 18-16-2 overall but struggles at home with an 9-10 record and a -1.28 average margin in the opening frame.

The Lean: Hawks 1Q moneyline or spread. Atlanta's road first quarter profile against Toronto's home struggles creates a clear edge.

🏀 Warriors @ Clippers: Elite Starts Meet Sluggish Beginnings

The Clippers are 19-14-1 in first quarter moneyline, but at home they're dominant at 11-6 with a +5.12 average margin. Their 22-11 first quarter ATS record is one of the best in the NBA. The Warriors are the exact opposite: 11-23-2 in first quarter moneyline with a -1.74 average margin. On the road, they're an abysmal 6-12-2, and they've gone 2-8 in their last 10 opening quarters.

The Lean: Clippers 1Q spread is the sharpest play on the slate. Their home dominance against a Warriors team that can't buy a first quarter win is as close to a mismatch as you'll find.

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🏀 Monday Night Three-Pointer Props

The NBA slate for Monday night offers a few sharp angles on three-point props where volume, matchup, and recent form all align. Here are the two highest-conviction plays for tonight.

Miles McBride Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-132)

McBride is the engine of the Knicks' bench scoring. Over his last 10 games, he's averaging 3.6 made threes per game, more than a full shot above tonight's line, and hit the over in 80% of those contests. His last 15 games show a 73.33% hit rate at 3.4 makes per game. On the road, he's cashing at a 62.5% hit rate while averaging 3.12 made threes.

The advanced metrics show an elite specialist. McBride's 66% shot frequency from deep ranks in the 93rd percentile among combo guards. The matchup is perfect. Detroit ranks 2nd at defending corner threes, but they're 27th in non-corner three-point efficiency allowed (37.2%). McBride takes 45% of his total shots from this exact area.

Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+118)

Quickley has been finding his rhythm from deep. Over his last 5 games, he's cleared this line in 60% of contests, averaging 3.0 makes per game. Season-long, he's hit the over in 18 of 35 games (51.43%), but the recent trend is the key data point.

His volume is elite. Quickley ranks in the 82nd percentile among point guards for both 3-point makes (2.5) and attempts (6.8) per game. He takes 48% of his shots from deep (61st percentile) and converts 40% of his non-corner threes (78th percentile).

The Hawks rank 17th at defending the point guard position for three-pointers, and they struggle to contain dynamic, shooting-heavy guards. Quickley is the primary engine of Toronto's backcourt and should see plenty of looks. The value at plus-money is significant.

Brandon Miller Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-111)

Miller has transformed into one of the most aggressive high-volume shooters in the league. He leads all forwards with 10.9 three-point attempts per game and 3.9 makes per game. His 56% shot frequency from beyond the arc shows he's primarily a perimeter threat, with 51% of his total shots being non-corner threes (96th percentile).

Over his last 5 games, Miller is averaging 3.2 makes per game and has hit the over in 80% of those contests. Over his last 10 games, he's maintained that 3.2 average with a 70% hit rate. His scoring has also surged to 23.6 points per game over his last 5 outings, driven by his willingness to let it fly from deep.

The Thunder present the toughest defense in the NBA. They have the #1 Defensive Rating (103.4) and #1 in effective field goal percentage allowed (51.4%). They're also ranked 1st at defending non-corner threes (33.2% allowed), which is Miller's primary shot location. However, OKC's elite interior defense (8th in blocks) forces teams to the perimeter, leading to high three-point attempt volume against them.

The math still favors Miller. When a player averages nearly 11 attempts per game, he only needs to shoot 27.3% to hit three makes. Miller is shooting 36% from three on the season and has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games.

Brandin Podziemski Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-114)

Podziemski has been consistent, averaging exactly 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last 5, 10, and 20 games. Over his last 20 contests, he's cleared this line in 65% of games. On the road, he's hitting the over in 60% of his 20 away games, a tick higher than his overall season average.

For the season, Podziemski is averaging 1.9 makes on 4.8 attempts. His corner three efficiency is elite at 52.0% (94th percentile for his position), which is a nightmare for a Clippers defense that's struggled with perimeter rotations all season.

The Clippers rank 26th in defensive rating (118.7) and 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed (55.8%). Against the combo guard position specifically, they rank 24th in the league. The Clippers allow 12.59 three-pointers per game to opposing guards and wings, 0.27 makes above league average.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Clear any plans you had scheduled this weekend. Here are all the kickoff times you need. 

🧊 Just days away from the first test in Milan. Will there be ice?

🔥 The 2nd most points through 40 games ever. Already two double-digit win streaks this season.

📉 Employee of the month in November, out of a job by New Years. The Premier League is ruthless. 

🐎 Two home wins to get to a Super Bowl. The Broncos’ Week 18 win made all the difference.

🏈 NFL Playoff Stage of Elimination Best Bets

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

When you think of creative ways to bet on the NFL Playoffs, your mind may go to wacky Super Bowl props.  But there’s something else that’s worth your attention before Super Wild Card Weekend begins:

Stage of Elimination Bets

FanDuel offers markets where you can wager on which teams will advance to the Divisional Round and Conference Championship Round, in addition to the standard AFC/NFC Champion and Super Bowl winner futures. While Divisional Round advancement bets essentially function as moneyline plays, the real value lies in identifying which teams can reach Championship Sunday.

Using Jaxon’s powerful AI analytics tool, here are some plays sure to have value:

The Top Seeds: Built-in Advantages

In this latest version of the NFL Playoffs, only the #1 seed in each conference receives a bye, meaning they need just one home victory for this bet to cash..  

This season, we had a couple of surprise winners, and some bettors remain skeptical of their legitimacy. That skepticism creates immediate value on the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks to win at least once at home.

Denver Broncos (-120)

Denver's defense will create problems for any opponent. The unit finished with 68 sacks, more than any team in the NFL:

The Broncos defense also ranks 8th in DVOA (-9.2%), first in yards allowed per play (4.5) and number one in pressure rate (31.5%).  If defense wins championships, Denver is in a terrific position.

Seattle Seahawks (-165)

It’s hard to find weaknesses anywhere on Seattle’s roster.  Not only are they #2 in total DVOA (41%), they’re number-one in defensive DVOA (-22.8%) and second in special teams DVOA (9.6%).  

As for the offense, quarterback Sam Darnold may not be in the MVP conversation, but he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 119 receptions and 1,793 receiving yards are among the best in the NFL.  The best players step up in the playoffs, and JSN may be a force multiplier to get the Seahawks back in the NFC Championship Game.

Los Angeles Rams (+105)

If you believe in Seattle’s offensive ceiling, you DEFINITELY trust what Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua can do: a number-one offensive DVOA (32.4%), the most yards per offensive play (6.2) and Nacua commanding a 32% target share.

The Rams draw the four-seed Carolina Panthers in the Wild Card Round.  Even though any metric will tell you L.A. is better, Carolina did beat the Rams just a few weeks ago.  But, consider this: the Rams committed three turnovers, which is highly unusual for them.  Carolina also went 3/3 on 4th down, not something that’s normally sustainable.  

The Rams want revenge, and a game they are heavy favorites means there’s value betting they’ll win both that and the Division Round contest.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+260)

For bettors seeking a higher-upside longshot, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars check multiple boxes. Their point differential of +104 ranks among the AFC's best, and their against-the-spread performance rivals the conference's top teams.

The Jags total DVOA ranks 6th in the NFL (16.1%) and in defensive DVOA they are 7th (-9.6%).  Their 30 takeaways have a lot to do with their success, helping Lawrence get short fields and cashing in with points frequently.  Jacksonville may have been a disappointment for long stretches lately, but this playoff stretch may be different.  

Key Takeaway

Stage of elimination markets offer value when public perception lags behind the analytics. The top seeds' inherent advantages, the Rams' revenge narrative at plus-money, and Jacksonville's underrated metrics all present opportunities this Super Wild Card Weekend.

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