+7000. That’s where DraftKings now lists the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl. 1500 points worse than before the Micah Parsons trade. Caleb Williams and the Bears (+5000) have better odds, and Dallas sits at just a 27% chance to make the playoffs (+270)—the same as the Panthers. Their win total prop has also dropped from 7.5 to 6.5, the lowest since 2002.

With Parsons, the defense was projected to be around league average. Without him, projections crater to bottom-five. The entire scheme was built on his ability to terrorize quarterbacks. Now? I guess they will finally focus on stopping the run. 🙄

Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens keep the offense strong, but football’s played on both sides of the ball. The odds shift reflects reality: losing Parsons reshapes the Cowboys’ entire identity. And their ceiling.

🤖 Jaxon – The Smarter Way to Bet

Tired of guessing? Just ask Jaxon.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds, finds value the sportsbooks don’t want you to see, and serves it up without the bias or gut-feel guesses.

🎯 Player Props → built from matchup data, performance history, and line shopping
💎 Plus EV Finder → spots bets where the math is on your side
📰 News & Injuries → all the updates that actually move lines
🏈 Survivor Pool Optimization → map out the perfect strategy week by week

Whether you’re grinding player props, hunting +EV, or asking quick questions like “How does Mahomes perform as a road underdog?”, Jaxon has you covered.

It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

🪜 NFL Player Milestones

Player milestone futures are one of my favorite markets to attack. They’re often softer than season win totals or awards markets, and the numbers often hinge on health more than talent. That creates real value for bettors willing to dig into usage, weapons, and schedules.

I love these spots because they reward research. If you know a player’s role and situation, you can get ahead of the books and lock in edges before the season even starts.

Kyler Murray Over 3400.5 Pass Yards (-110)

Jaxon’s Take: Kyler Murray has gone over this number in four of his six seasons, and the only times he missed were when injuries cut things short. In 2024, he threw for 3,851 yards across 17 games, cruising past 3,400. 

With Marvin Harrison Jr. expected to take a leap in Year 2, Trey McBride cementing himself as a go-to target, and one of the league’s softest QB schedules on tap, the setup looks ideal. Jaxon projects Murray around the 3,700-yard mark if he stays healthy.

My Take: I’m right there with Jaxon on this one. Murray has cleared this bar every healthy year of his career. Harrison and McBride give him real options, the schedule is friendly, and at 28, I expect him to lean into his arm more than his legs.

Geno Smith Over 3575.5 Pass Yards (-110)

Jaxon’s Take: He’s cleared 4,200 yards in two of the last three years, and even in 2023 when he missed two games, he still went past this mark with 3,624. Last season, he finished 4th in the league with 4,320 yards.

Now reunited with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas and paired with Chip Kelly’s up-tempo scheme, Geno should have no shortage of opportunities. Add in an improved set of weapons and the fact that 12 of his games will be indoors (where he’s been elite), and Jaxon’s model projects him comfortably north of this line.

My Take: This one feels like a gift. Geno only needs about 211 yards per game across a full season to cash the Over, and his averages have been in the mid-240s to 250s for three straight years.

I’m also extremely bullish on the supporting cast around him on offense. 

Courtland Sutton Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jaxon’s Take: The 875.5-yard line for Courtland Sutton looks undervalued. He just put up 1,081 yards last season, and the difference came almost entirely once Bo Nix found his stride. 

Sutton averaged under 40 yards per game in the first seven weeks, then exploded for over 80 per game across the final ten. That late-season chemistry suggests his true baseline is much closer to a 1,000-yard receiver than a mid-800s one.

My Take: Sutton and Nix figured each other out down the stretch last year, and the results were hard to ignore. A guy who’s finishing the season on an 80-yard-per-game pace doesn’t belong under 900 yards, especially with the quarterback situation finally stabilizing in Denver.

🌲 The Pine Line

🎾 From hat theft to wholesome ending. A reminder that the internet always finds you.

😬 Arch Manning’s coronation delayed. The Heisman hype hit a wall in Columbus as Ohio State’s defense made his life miserable.

🐅 Burrow looks better than ever. Already one of the NFL’s most precise passers, coaches swear this is the sharpest version of their QB.

⚾ Brewers still on top of MLB. Colorado is fighting just to avoid the worse season ever.

🏀 Lynx lock up WNBA’s top seed. After falling short in last year’s Finals, Minnesota’s record-setting squad enters the playoffs as title favorites.

⏱️ Fast Futures in the NFL

DraftKings Sportsbook has a new ‘Fast Futures’ offering, shorter term future bets that run through the first four weeks. Let’s take a look at some valuable options for quicker cash this season. 

Yes or No: Any Player to have 450+ Rushing Yards After 4 Weeks

Jaxon’s Take: To hit 450 rushing yards in four weeks, a player must average 112.5 yards per game. Looking at 2024, only Saquon Barkley (125.3 YPG) and Derrick Henry (113.0 YPG) sustained that pace across a full season. Everyone else fell well short. Expecting that kind of surge right out of the gate is statistically unlikely. Add in early-season variables—new schemes, light workloads, minor injuries—and the odds stack against anyone hitting the number.

Jaxon recommends No (-165) — the math says this milestone is simply too rare to bet the “Yes” at that price.

My Take: I’m zagging here. It only takes one guy to smash this number, and we’ve got multiple candidates who can do it: Barkley in Philly’s run-heavy scheme, Henry still built like a tank, or even a younger back like Bijan who could explode early. Nick Chubb did it back in the 22-23 season and he has less competition for snaps with Mixon out. I’m taking Yes at +115.

Most Pass TDs After 4 Weeks (Listed Players Only)

Jaxon’s Take: Joe Burrow (+370). Looking strictly at the projections, Joe Burrow has the early edge. Burrow’s accuracy, quick release, and proven efficiency give him a strong statistical case. 

While Mahomes and Allen bring elite ceilings, their early-season touchdown pace doesn’t project as high. Jackson and Allen add rushing TDs that can cap passing volume, and Mayfield’s situation carries volatility with injuries and staff turnover. The numbers make him the most likely to pace the league in early passing touchdowns.

My Take: Baker Mayfield (+850). Even with Chris Godwin’s status being shaky, Baker still has Mike Evans as a go-to red zone weapon and a rookie in Emeka Egbuka who I expect to contribute right away. Add in Bucky Irving giving Tampa a credible run threat, and defenses won’t be able to just sit back on the pass.

Baker’s coming off a strong season with 41 touchdowns, and with his weapons plus a schedule that offers some early shootout potential, I think he has the chance to rack up early touchdowns.

Three more sleeps.

It’s last call for fantasy drafts, futures bets, and survivor pools. No more ADPs, no more projections—-the real week-to-week grind begins.

Our season-long Props Battle kicks off tomorrow in Discord. Stop by and cast your vote for a free shot at $50 each week of the NFL season.

If you missed a newsletter or want daily game previews, our brand-new Blog has you covered. Check it out and let us know what you think.