🥇 Finding Value in Olympic Dominance

Men's Hockey Preview and Gold Medal Picks

It’s not often we see complete dominance in an Olympic discipline, but this year Jordan Stolz has the chance to win every event that he is in.

At just 21, Stolz has dominated the Speedskating World Cup circuit this season, winning 16 of 24 races. He's a legitimate threat to medal or win in the 500, 1,000, 1,500, and mass start events. His first opportunity is Wednesday night in the men's 1,000 meter where he enters as a massive -750 favorite.

Elsewhere in Milan Cortina, Norway's Johannes Klaebo already has seven gold medals at age 29 and is chasing the all-time record of 8. He has two so far in these Olympics. American figure skater Ilia Malinin, the "Quad God," shattered scoring requirements with a 108.16 in the short program. He’s on the verge of an individual gold on Friday.

Historically, Marit Bjørgen of Norway owns the crown as the most decorated Winter Olympian in history with 15 total medals across five Olympic Games from 2002 to 2018. She won sprints, anchored team relays, and ground out victories in brutal 30-kilometer distance races. Her 2010 Vancouver performance alone netted five medals, including three golds.

Bjørndalen, the Norwegian "King of Biathlon," isn't far behind with 14 medals spanning from 1994 to 2014. His signature moment came at the 2002 Salt Lake City Games, where he executed a perfect sweep by winning gold in all four of his events. That's an unmatched level of dominance brought to the sport.

Outside of Norway, the Netherlands' Ireen WĂĽst stands as the most decorated speed skater in history with 13 total medals. She's the first athlete ever to win individual gold at five different Olympics, spanning from 2006 to 2022. Her 2014 Sochi performance brought home five medals in one Games, and she won her final gold in the 1500 meters at age 35 in Beijing.

The American gold standard remains Eric Heiden's 1980 Lake Placid masterpiece. Heiden swept all five speed skating distances, setting Olympic records in every single race. He's the only athlete to win five individual golds at a single Winter Games, and only three others have even managed four. It's a feat that may never be replicated.

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🏒 Olympic Men’s Hockey Futures

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Winter Olympic men’s hockey will feel like “Better Call Saul”.  It’ll be a slow build through the preliminaries that sets up an inevitable, explosive finale.

Team USA and Team Canada probably have a lot of lopsided games in their futures, but their likely collision course should lead to an epic Gold Medal showdown that’s worth the wait.

Upcoming Schedule

So, before you swing by Cinnabon, let’s see what Jaxon’s AI tools say are best bets for these games:

Team USA to Win Gold (+190)

For the first time since 2014, NHL players are allowed to compete in these games.  The only true sample size we have for how these national teams play together comes from last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament.

Even though Canadian players have scored more goals this season than the Americans (383 vs 301), Team USA does have goalkeeper Connor Hellebuyck, who may still be the best in the world.  

Taking +190 instead of the favorite in Canada at +130 when the talent level is identical offers good value.  Also, betting on the United States to win a medal at -330 may not seem like much, but the probability of them reaching the podium is higher than the implied probability of 77%.  

Tournament Leading Goal Scorer: Connor McDavid (13/1)

Let's break down this market: you want a skater whose team will reach the Gold Medal or Bronze Medal game so they have as many opportunities as possible. You also want someone with a history of taking over offensively.

Look no further than the best forward in the world.  In case you need any convincing, he has more total points than anyone in the NHL so far this season and is among the league leaders in points per time on ice:

McDavid also has tallied almost as many goals (trailing only teammate Nathan MacKinnon) and has a commanding lead in expected goals among all skaters this season.

For an even closer look, McDavid leads the NHL in generating high-danger shots on goal (94).  Given his stature in the game, I would expect some subservience from linemates, meaning he would be the one scoring enough tap-ins and breakaways to win the honor.

Tournament Leading Goal Scorer: Sebastian Aho (27/1)

Again, we want skaters on teams that will make the final four.  That means, for value, we look to Sweden and Finland as nations that should contend.  

For Finland, losing Aleksander Barkov is brutal, so someone else has to carry the bulk of the scoring load.  Mikko Rantanen is the favorite in this market for that reason, but Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho is just as capable.  

Aho’s 15.6% shooting percentage is solid, his ability to generate high-danger shots on goal is apparent and his time on ice should be among the most of any skater in the tournament.  Expect Sebastian Aho to have the opportunity to finish with the most tallies.

Key Takeaway

It might be a predictable start to this tournament, but there's plenty of excitement in store, as well as good money to be made. Straightforward bets on the Americans and Canadians with a sprinkle on Finland (or Sweden if you insist) should be profitable.

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🔥 Olympic Bets Worth Making This Week

The Winter Olympics have delivered some captivating narratives, and this week offers three betting opportunities worth following along. Let's break down the Snowboard Cross, Luge Relay, and then read more for Johannes Klaebo's quest for gold medal history.

Men's Snowboard Cross: Adam Lambert to Win Gold (+450 on Caesers) - Thursday 4 AM ET

Adam Lambert

At 28 years old and after 75 World Cup starts, Adam Lambert finally broke through for his first career World Cup gold just weeks ago in China. It catapulted the Australian to World No. 1 in the FIS rankings and signaled a massive momentum shift heading into his third Olympic appearance.

Lambert's recent form is backed by consistency. He followed his breakthrough gold with a bronze at the Cervinia World Cup, giving him back-to-back podium finishes entering Milano Cortina. In Snowboard Cross, where four to six riders race simultaneously down a narrow course filled with jumps and technical sections, starting position is everything. Lambert is known for explosive starts, and winning the "holeshot" (being first out of the gate) is statistically critical to advancing through heats.

At +450, the implied probability is just 18.2%, but Lambert's current form and world ranking suggest the market is undervaluing his chances. His veteran experience managing high-pressure Olympic seeding rounds combined with peak form makes this a strong play for Thursday morning.

Luge Team Relay: Germany to Win Gold (-150 on Caesars) - Thursday 12:30 PM ET)

Germany Luge Team

Germany isn't just the favorite in the luge team relay. They're threatening to complete another historic sweep of the sliding center. Max Langenhan and Julia Taubitz have already secured gold in men's and women's singles, respectively, with Taubitz finishing nearly a full second ahead of the silver medalist. That cushion matters enormously in relay format, where consistency across all four legs determines the winner.

The German relay team features their fresh gold medalists plus the legendary doubles pairing of Tobias Wendl and Tobias Arlt, known as "the Tobis." This veteran duo at age 38 entered Milano Cortina with six consecutive Olympic gold medals and is widely considered the greatest doubles team in luge history. They anchor a German squad that has demonstrated total control of the Cortina Sliding Centre.

The narrative here is simple: Germany has already proven they're the fastest in each individual discipline at this specific track. Combining those advantages into a relay format where their margins compound makes -150 a justified play. 

The Perfect Olympic Story

If you followed along with my Lindsey Vonn post from last week, the result was about the worst case scenario. As tragic as it was, and in spite of the outcome, it still completed one of the greatest comeback stories in sports. Fred Dreier from Outside did a great job explaining why her situation really made us feel something.

There are still more Olympic stories to be written over the next 11 days, so stay tuned.