Last week, Joe Fagnano’s job was pretending to be Josh Allen in practice. Tonight he starts for the Ravens on Thursday Night Football.

Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both went down in the first half against Buffalo, and Skylar Thompson was already on IR. That leaves Fagnano, a 25-year-old undrafted rookie, as the next man up. He’ll be the sixth undrafted QB to start a game this season, the most through nine weeks since 2013. The first five went 4-7 in their total starts so far.

His relief appearance Sunday was rough: 10 of 21 for 91 yards, an interception, a lost fumble and three sacks. Hard to blame him. Nobody preps the third-stringer to chase a deficit against Buffalo.

The college résumé is more encouraging. Fagnano walked on at Maine, earned a scholarship and even threw for 445 yards and five touchdowns against Liberty University. A shoulder injury wiped out his first year at UConn, but he came back in 2025 and completed 69% of his passes for 3,448 yards, 28 touchdowns and one interception. Over seven college seasons, he threw 93 touchdowns and 18 picks. He was great at protecting the football, and right now that’s what Baltimore needs most.

The matchup is a problem. Jacksonville allows only 15.9 points per game (2nd in the NFL) and just 3.39 yards per carry, the best mark in the league. That’s a tough draw for a Derrick Henry offense that ranks 28th in pass attempts.

There is an opening, though. The Jaguars rank 26th in passing yards allowed and 28th in completion percentage allowed, and they don’t generate many sacks. If Baltimore’s shaky line can protect Fagnano, then Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews have a shot at winning their matchups to get open.

Expect quick throws, plenty of checkdowns and a game plan built around not losing it. It probably won’t be pretty, but a clean night would be a big win.

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🏈 TNF Breakdown: Prime Time Mismatch in Baltimore

Thursday Night Football features the NFL’s 2nd best team in overall DVOA, against the 19th ranked Baltimore, and the point differentials (+85 vs. -24) look even worse. Baltimore has lost three straight and is starting an undrafted rookie. Jacksonville is laying 9 to 10 points depending on the book, with the projected total between 39.5 and 42.5.

The Jaguars rank 5th in DVOA on both offense and defense. Trevor Lawrence (17 TDs, 4 INTs, 112.6 rating) runs an offense that’s 26th in plays per game but 5th in scoring because it hits big passes and stays ahead on third down. Baltimore’s defense has three interceptions all season and allows 25.4 points a game. The Ravens will try to get some hits on Lawrence, but his line has given up only 13 sacks this season.

Joe Fagnano, meanwhile, faces a defense allowing 15.9 points per game, and one of three teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Baltimore will lean on Derrick Henry, and Jacksonville did lose run-stuffer DaVon Hamilton to a torn quad. Despite the injury, this is still the league’s best run defense at 3.39 yards per carry.

Yes, Baltimore won two of the last three meetings. Lamar played in all of them. Jacksonville is 13-2 over its last 15 regular-season games.

🔥 Parker Washington Over 63.5 Receiving Yards 

Baltimore has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts (177.6 per game). Washington averages 16 yards per catch on a 24% target share and has topped 60 in four of seven games. Don’t read much into his 16 yards in Week 8 as Jacksonville threw just 14 passes in that blowout.

🔥 Mark Andrews Over 2.5 Receptions 

A rookie QB behind a leaky line will be looking for his tight end early and often. Jacksonville defends tight ends well, but Andrews has hit this in 87.5% of games this season and every home game, where he averages 4.67 catches.

🔥 Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over 69.5 Rushing Yards*

This one comes with a big asterisk. Bhayshul Tuten is questionable, and if he plays then this yardage line will drop into the high 20s. If Tuten sits out, then Rodriguez becomes the lead back. He went for 41 yards on six attempts in Week 8, and he’s averaged right around 30 per game this season behind Tuten. The Ravens give up 82 rushing yards per game to backs, but expect more tonight if the Jags get out to an early lead.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤯 Wemby is raising the bar this season. Nobody has done this at least since blocks became an official stat

🏒 Montreal had a four goal lead with under three minutes left The comeback from Winnipeg was unlike any other.

⚽️ Como’s night in France was right out of a movie. The Champions League newbies are setting huge records.

👑 Death, taxes, and Luka scoring 40+ points. Jordan’s records don’t stand a chance against a happy and healthy Luka.

🔥 Parker Washington Anytime Touchdown (+165)

If I’m betting one player to find the end zone tonight, it’s Parker Washington.

Start with the volume. Washington leads Jacksonville with 48 targets and has turned 27 catches into 432 yards and four touchdowns. He’s scored in three different games, including twice against Philadelphia in Week 5, and at 16 yards per catch he’s a big-play threat.

Baltimore is a good place to cash in. The Ravens allow touchdowns on 69% of opponents’ red-zone trips (25th in the NFL), and wide receivers account for 177.6 of the 241.9 passing yards they give up per game, which ranks 28th. They’ve also been burned on deep balls to the left side, allowing 13.7 yards per target. Jacksonville’s passing attack ranks 4th, and Washington is its top option.

The coverage change helps too. Last week he faced Indianapolis, one of the league’s heaviest man-coverage teams. Baltimore plays a lot more zone, and that’s where Washington has done his best work: a 59.1% DVOA against zone that leads all Jaguars receivers and ranks 16th in the NFL. Only the questionable Bhayshul Tuten tops his 2.27 yards per route run on the team.

Don’t let last week’s stat line scare you off. He finished with one catch for 16 yards, but Jacksonville only threw 14 times in a 42-7 rout of the Colts. Two weeks earlier, he drew 11 targets against Houston. The role is there, that game just didn’t need him.

Tonight it might. With Tuten questionable, Jacksonville could put more on Trevor Lawrence’s arm against a secondary that’s struggled all season. At +165, Washington is my pick to score.

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