Week 3 of the preseason is here, and the buzz is everywhere. Fantasy drafts are firing off, depth charts are shaking out, and coaches are making their final calls before Week 1. It’s the last real look we get before the games count, which makes it a great spot to find edges the market hasn’t caught up to.

For bettors, Week 3 is prime time for players to prove their worth, and several teams have intense position battles that will lead to highly competitive play. This is the week backups fight for jobs, rookies push vets, and coaches get their last evaluations in.

In New York, rookie Jaxson Dart is pushing Russell Wilson for QB1 reps. In Cleveland, Joe Flacco has locked up the Week 1 job, leaving a dogfight for the backup role.

Below, you’ll find Jaxon’s favorite moneyline spots for the weekend, alongside my own takes, and a few sharp looks on the MLB slate to round things out.

🏈 Props Battle is Coming…

Think you know football better than the crowd? Prove it.

We’re launching the Pine Props Battle Challenge in Discord this season—a free weekly contest where all you have to do is vote on a player prop (like “Which RB will run wild this week?”).

✅ Get it right → you’re in the running for $50 cash that week.
✅ Stack up wins all season → top spot takes home a full year of Jaxon Premium ($999 value).

It’s simple, it’s free, and it’s a good excuse to talk smack in the Pine Discord server. First poll drops before Week 1, so jump in now and get ready.

🏈 NFL Preseason Week 3 Moneyline Bets

Preseason might not “count” in the standings, but it definitely counts in the books. Depth charts, QB rotations, and coaching tendencies matter more than star power this time of year. Here’s where Jaxon sees the edge and how I see it too.

Philadelphia Eagles (+110) vs. New York Jets

Jaxon’s Take: Philly comes in as a small underdog tonight, mostly due to injury concerns, but they’re simply the more talented roster top-to-bottom. Preseason is about depth, and the Eagles’ second and third units should be strong enough to get it done. Value at +110.
My Take: I like this one. Preseason football is rarely about stars, and the Eagles have more quality throughout their roster. Getting them at plus money feels like the right side.

Seattle Seahawks (+145) vs. Green Bay Packers

Jaxon’s Take: Green Bay’s receiver injuries are an issue, even if Jordan Love plays a bit. Seattle, meanwhile, can lean on Sam Darnold and decent depth. In a coin-flip preseason matchup, the Seahawks at plus money stand out.

My Take: I’m with Jaxon here. If you’re betting preseason, you want the team with fewer question marks and a backup QB you can trust to move the ball. Seattle checks both boxes.

Denver Broncos (-170) vs. New Orleans Saints

Jaxon’s Take: The Saints’ QB situation is ugly, neither Shough nor Rattler has shown much. Denver’s defense should dominate, and while -170 is a steeper price, it still carries value given the matchup.

My Take: Hard to get excited about laying -170 in preseason, but fading the Saints’ QB room is about as safe as it gets. Jaxon referring to the situation as “ugly” is putting it nicely. I’d pair Denver in parlays, possibly with the Browns ML, rather than hitting the moneyline straight.

🌲The Pine Line

👑 Browns and Colts both made QB calls this week. Don’t bet on either situation staying steady for long.

🐼 Panda Medals, Parkour, and Drone Races in The World Games. The Olympics’ weird cousin just stole the show in Chengdu.

🎾 The US Open bet on mixed doubles—and it paid off. Big names, big crowds, and a two-day party had everyone talking.

👟 Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour have had the NCAA cornered. UK brand, Castore, wants to bring custom gear to college sports.

🏈 Fantasy owners, beware the touch king. The numbers say “most used” rarely means “most useful” the following season.

⚾ From the Dugout: Best Bets in Baseball Today

When it comes to betting MLB totals, the key is knowing which stats actually drive scoring. This season’s data makes it clear: pitching metrics like ERA are the strongest predictors of how many runs will be scored, while offensive numbers such as OPS, slugging, and on-base percentage also play a big role. Add in bullpen usage, park factors, and even weather, and you’ve got a blueprint for spotting overs (or unders) before the market adjusts.

Houston/Baltimore Total Score Over 9 Runs (-115)

Lance McCullers Jr. is back from the IL, but his overall numbers this season (6.90 ERA, nearly 2 HRs and 6 BBs per nine) raise big red flags. Lance has been sharper on the road (2.01 ERA), but Cade Povich struggles at Camden Yards (6.05 ERA at home). Houston’s lineup has mashed Povich historically, with Altuve, Correa, and Peña all posting monster numbers against him. Add in Camden’s hitter-friendly park factors and recent trends (both teams hitting overs in 3 of their last 5), and the Over 9.0 runs looks strong.

San Francisco/Milwaukee Total Score Under 9.5 Runs (-114)

Considering the Giants' anemic offense, especially against left-handed pitching, and Jose Quintana's solid performance at home, I anticipate San Francisco will struggle to put up many runs. While the Brewers' offense is strong, the pitcher-friendly nature of American Family Field and the overall market sentiment leaning Under suggest that the total score will likely stay below the projected line.

Antonio Senzatela Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110)

Antonio Senzatela is projected to give up 2.61 earned runs, but given his season mean of 3.77 earned runs, a season long ERA of 7.00, and a 72.73% hit rate on the over this season, I like the over on his earned runs. The expected Pirates lineup tonight has a cumulative batting average of .446 historically against Senzatela including 2 Home Runs from Andrew McCutchen. Senzatela has only recorded 4 strikeouts in the 47 combined At-Bats against him.

This is only the beginning.

Preseason action is fun, but it’s just the warm-up. As Week 1 gets closer, you’ll be getting more content, sharper breakdowns, and plenty of edges landing in your inbox.

Continue the conversation with us in Discord or on X, we’d love to hear from you!