For 90 years, the Detroit Lions have anchored the early afternoon slot, turning turkey and touchdowns into an inseparable pairing. The Dallas Cowboys joined the party in 1966, adding a second game that turned Thanksgiving into an all-day football marathon. These two franchises defined the holiday for generations of American families.

The tradition has produced some of the most iconic moments in football history. Who could forget Ezekiel Elliott's legendary leap into the oversized Salvation Army kettle in 2016? The celebration went so viral that Elliott turned it into a $10,000 donation. Then there's the infamous "Butt Fumble" from 2012, when Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez collided face-first with his own lineman's backside, fumbling the ball for a Patriots touchdown. The play remains the gold standard for Thanksgiving football disasters.

Randy Moss delivered one of the great revenge performances in 1998 after the Cowboys passed on him in the draft. The rookie caught just three passes against Dallas, but all three went for touchdowns of 50-plus yards, finishing with 163 yards. The 1998 overtime coin toss controversy between the Steelers and Lions, where referee Phil Luckett awarded the toss to Detroit despite Jerome Bettis appearing to call tails correctly, solidified ‘98 as one of the wildest Thanksgivings in history.

John Madden elevated the broadcast experience into something uniquely Thanksgiving. His annual turducken advocacy, a deboned chicken stuffed into a duck stuffed into a turkey, became as much a part of the holiday as the games themselves. Madden understood that Thanksgiving football wasn't just about the action on the field, it was about the family experience happening simultaneously across America.

The betting trends tell their own story. Home teams hold a modest 122-114-12 all-time record on Thanksgiving, proving that turkey and family don't guarantee victory. The Cowboys are 34-22-1 straight up on the holiday but an abysmal 3-11 against the spread since 2011, suggesting oddsmakers consistently inflate their lines due to national popularity. Meanwhile, the primetime game added in 2006 has hit the under in 12 of 18 contests.

This year's slate delivers three legitimate matchups with playoff implications. The analytics reveal clear edges, the injury reports create uncertainty, and the short week amplifies every advantage. Let's dig into what the data says about Thursday's games.

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🦃 Thanksgiving Day Game Predictions

Thanksgiving week brings three marquee matchups where the advanced metrics reveal clear advantages. We've identified the critical mismatches in each game, from Detroit's explosive offense meeting Green Bay's elite defense to Cincinnati's historically bad defense facing Baltimore's rushing attack.

NFC North Rivals Clash

Thanksgiving day kicks off with a legitimate heavyweight battle in the NFC North. Both teams rank in the top 10 in overall efficiency, but they're built completely differently. The Lions are an explosive scoring machine that ranks second in points per game at 29.6, while the Packers counter with the league's most efficient defense, allowing just 5.12 yards per play.

Detroit's offense ranks third in yards per play and second in yards per carry at 5.11. The problem is they're running straight into Green Bay's strength. The Packers allow only 3.89 yards per carry, seventh best in the NFL, and they've held opponents to under 100 rushing yards per game.

Meanwhile, Green Bay's pass defense is also elite, ranking first in yards per attempt allowed at just 6.38 and first in yards per reception allowed at 9.7. They simply don't give up many big plays in coverage. Detroit's secondary is a mess, ranking 31st in yards per reception allowed at 12.79 and 27th in passing touchdowns surrendered. Should I mention that the Packers rank first in third down conversion rate at 48.92%?

The injury situation isn’t great for Green Bay and worth following. The list of questionable players on their offense is growing with Wicks, Golden, and Jacobs all questionable and Reed still yet to fully return from IR.

The Lions have the higher offensive ceiling and enough defensive pressure (sixth in sack rate) to disrupt Green Bay's timing in the passing game. If their offensive line stays intact, the Lions should control the clock and the game.

Prediction: Detroit Lions ML at -138

Thanksgiving Feast at Jerry World

The advanced metrics tell a story about defensive efficiency that should concern Dallas backers. Kansas City ranks fifth in overall DVOA while the Cowboys sit at 18th, and the gap gets even wider when you look at defense. The Chiefs allow just 18.27 points per game, fourth best in the NFL, while Dallas bleeds 28.55 points per game, ranking 31st.

That 10-point defensive gap is enormous. It's more than a full possession advantage. The Cowboys are also the worst team in football at getting off the field on third down, opponents convert at a staggering 49.64% clip. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' third-ranked offense will absolutely feast in those situations.

Both teams are dealing with offensive line injuries on the short week. Kansas City loses their Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith to an ankle injury, which hurts against a Cowboys pass rush that recently added Quinnen Williams. Would you believe Quinnen has been the best in the league? I’m not going to say Jerry got it right yet, but…

The situational factors favor Dallas, but the analytical gap is significant. They're home in Jerry World with a 3-1-1 record at AT&T Stadium, and Thanksgiving short weeks typically benefit the home team. The Chiefs have also been awful on the road at 1-4 this season.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5

Joe Burrow Returns against Baltimore

Joe Burrow's return is the headline, but the advanced metrics reveal a massive gap between these two AFC North rivals. The Ravens rank 13th in overall DVOA while the Bengals sit at 28th, and the defensive disparity is even more alarming. Cincinnati ranks dead last in the NFL in both defensive DVOA at 27.5% and points allowed per game at 32.73. They're giving up yards and points to everyone.

The Ravens rank fifth in rushing efficiency at 4.93 yards per carry, which is a nightmare matchup for a Bengals run defense that allows 5.06 yards per carry, 29th in the league. Derrick Henry should have a field day, and with the Bengals tied for most missed tackles in the NFL, explosive runs that quickly turn into scores are highly likely.

Burrow's return provides an offensive ceiling boost, especially with Ja'Marr Chase back from suspension. The Bengals are desperate at 3-8 and throw the ball 59% of the time on first down, the highest rate in the league. They're built to score quickly in shootouts.

Baltimore's passing defense ranks ninth in yards per attempt allowed at 7.17, which will make things difficult for Burrow, but the volume of possessions and scoring opportunities should push this game over the total.

Both teams have gone over the total in 7 of their 11 games this season. The Bengals' defensive collapse combined with Baltimore's offensive efficiency sets up a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Total Score Over 51.5 at -110

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🔥 Best Thanksgiving TD Bets

by Tony Reyes

Why Amon-Ra St. Brown Will Deliver on Thanksgiving

Here's the thing about betting touchdowns in the NFL: it's all about matching opportunity with vulnerability. And right now, there's a perfect storm brewing in Detroit that has Amon-Ra St. Brown's name written all over it.

The Packers' defense is legitimately elite in most areas. They shut down running backs. They pressure the quarterback. But here's where it gets interesting, they're TERRIBLE against the pass in the red zone. We're talking 27th in the league. Eight of their last twelve passing touchdowns allowed have gone directly to wide receivers. That's not a coincidence, that's a blueprint.

Meanwhile, St. Brown isn't just any receiver. He's Jared Goff's most trusted target when it matters most, especially inside the 20-yard line. This guy ranks second among all NFL wide receivers in red zone targets with 20 this season. Think about that. Twenty chances to find the end zone against one of the league's most vulnerable pass defenses.

St. Brown's home splits against Green Bay are absolutely ridiculous. In games played at Ford Field, he's averaging 75.5 receiving yards per game against the Packers throughout his career. That's a pattern. He gets 1.5 more receptions per game at home compared to when he's up in Green Bay. The Lions' crowd, the comfort of Ford Field, it all feeds into his production in a major way.

This season, St. Brown is entering the Thanksgiving matchup after a season-high 149 yards and a touchdown last week. He's knocking on the door of his third straight season with double-digit touchdowns. He's hungry. And he's facing a secondary that’s bottom-5 in the league in passing TDs allowed.

Amon-Ra St. Brown to score an Anytime Touchdown at plus money (+105). You're getting paid to take the side that the data overwhelmingly supports. The Packers' weakness is defending receivers. St. Brown IS the receiver. Bet on the “Sun God” to shine bright on Thursday afternoon at home, in prime time, on a national stage.

CeeDee Lamb is Your Thanksgiving Edge Against Kansas City

Listen, we've been through the tape on this Chiefs-Cowboys matchup, and there's something worth noticing that most bettors are sleeping on. The value isn't hiding—it's staring right at us through the data, and CeeDee Lamb is the player to cash in on it.

Here's what makes this different from the typical wide receiver play: the Chiefs' defense has a very specific weakness, and Lamb is perfectly positioned to exploit it.

Kansas City has allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers in the red zone this season. Seven. Compare that to tight ends, they've given up only three. That tells us exactly where the Cowboys will score. The middle of the field is locked down. The perimeter? That's where the damage happens.

Lamb isn't just any receiver taking advantage of this vulnerability, either. He's averaging 10.29 targets per game, which puts him in elite company. More importantly, when the Cowboys get inside the 20-yard line, Lamb commanded 10 red zone targets and three looks inside the five. These are the highest-leverage opportunities in football. These are plays specifically designed to end in the end zone.

Now, we know his Thanksgiving history is inconsistent. His most recent one? Only 39 yards and three drops against the Giants. That's real, and the odds at +136 reflect that risk. But here's where the edge lives—the market is pricing in his past volatility while ignoring his current, elite role in this offense.

The Dallas passing attack leads the NFL in yards per game. Dak Prescott is going to need to throw against this Chiefs secondary, which ranks 30th in completion percentage allowed. That means volume. That means opportunities.

This is a bounce-back spot for Lamb. High-profile Thanksgiving game, motivated after those drops against the Eagles, facing a defense built to stop the run. Everything aligns. The Chiefs' defense isn't built to stop slot receivers and outside threats from scoring. Lamb IS that threat.

At this price, with this volume, against this specific defensive profile, this is where value meets execution. Take Lamb to hit paydirt at +136.

Bears @ Eagles on Black Friday

Both teams enter at 8-3, but the advanced metrics reveal a significant gap in true team strength. The Eagles rank eighth in overall DVOA at 13.4% while the Bears sit at 22nd with a -9.5% rating. More telling is Chicago's negative point differential of -3.0 despite their winning record, suggesting their success is unsustainable. They've also faced the easiest schedule in the NFL while Philadelphia has battled the third-toughest slate and maintained a +30 point differential.

The Eagles' secondary ranks first in completion percentage allowed at just 57.29% and fourth in passing touchdowns surrendered with only 11 all season. Bad news for Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who completes passes at just 59.29%, ranking 31st in the league. Chicago's offense ranks second in rushing yards per game at 142.27, but if the Eagles neutralize that strength, the Bears will be forced into a passing game where Williams has historically struggled.

On the flip side, Chicago's run defense is a disaster, ranking 30th in yards per carry allowed at 5.18 and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Eagles should dominate on the ground with or without Saquon Barkley at full strength. Most critically, Chicago's secondary is dealing with multiple injuries and has allowed the second-most touchdowns and second-most yards on throws 20-plus yards downfield. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should feast.

D'Andre Swift Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Swift averages 64.9 rushing yards per game this season, more than 21 yards above this line. He's hit the over in 70% of his games and 80% of his last five contests. Even against a solid Eagles defense, the Bears will lean heavily on their ground game to avoid exposing Williams to Philadelphia's elite secondary.

Swift's consistent volume of 14.2 carries per game and recent average of 70.8 yards over his last five makes this line too conservative.

DeVonta Smith Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-122)

Smith averages 68.55 receiving yards per game this season, already 15 yards above this line. His recent form is even more impressive, averaging 86.6 yards over his last five contests and clearing this number by more than 30 yards. He commands a 27% target share, ninth among all receivers, and ranks fourth in receiving EPA at 46.39, confirming his efficiency when targeted.

The Bears rank 19th against wide receiver yardage and are dealing with multiple injured cornerbacks, creating a depleted secondary that Smith should carve up. Chicago also allows 7.99 yards per attempt, 25th in the league, which favors Smith's downfield role in the Eagles' passing attack.

Happy Holiday!

We want to wish everyone at Happy Thanksgiving and hope that you enjoy the time wherever you are. We will not be sending out on our normal Friday cadence, but keep an eye out on Saturday for our weekend insights and predictions!