Shedeur Sanders delivered his best game as a pro, and one of the best that Cleveland fans have seen in some time, posting 364 yards and four total touchdowns. Drake Maye hasn’t even thrown for 300 yards yet (294). The performance was significant for two reasons: it nearly matched his entire career output in a single game, and it came against the backdrop of Cleveland's ongoing quarterback uncertainty.

Before Sunday, the fifth-round pick had thrown for just 405 yards across three games. His 364-yard outing essentially doubled his season production while adding three passing touchdowns, more than his career total up to this point. He also recorded his first rushing touchdown, scrambling seven yards in the fourth quarter during a comeback attempt.

Sanders' completion percentage (54.76%) remained modest on 42 attempts, and he threw a critical third-quarter interception while trying to extend a play, but Browns fans should be excited.

Why? Because Cleveland hasn’t seen a quarterback perform at this level in a long time. Going back to 2017, a Cleveland quarterback has previously recorded 300+ Passing Yards, with 3+ Passing Touchdowns, just nine times. Only six of those nine featured one or fewer interceptions thrown. Shedeur is the first one to add a rushing touchdown to his tally.

If you think you’re going to find a Deshaun Watson performance to rival this one, you’ve lost your mind. In three seasons in Cleveland he only had six games with 200+ pass yards and none over 300. Plus, he only threw 3 touchdowns one single time.

Cleveland's 3-10 record positions them for a potential top-five pick in the 2026 draft. Not only that, but news suggests Deshaun Watson is expected to remain on the Browns’ roster next season. Even with Sanders' breakout game, the front office must weigh whether this performance represents genuine development or an outlier against a struggling Tennessee defense.

Sanders faces a defining four-game stretch: Chicago, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. He doesn't need to outplay Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, but he needs to demonstrate he belongs in those matchups. If the production from Week 14 proves repeatable against better competition, Cleveland may have found a quarterback to stick with.

For now, it's one impressive data point in a very small sample size. It could still be worth keeping an eye on Kalshi for 2026 Starting Quarterback markets.

🎯 Train Jaxon to Talk Your Language

What if Jaxon knew exactly how you want your answers?

Not too long. Not too short. Focused on your teams, your players, and delivered your way. Here's what you control:

• Response Length - Need quick hits between bets? Jaxon keeps it short. Want deep dives? He'll break down every angle.

• Favorite Teams & Players - Tell Jaxon who you follow, and he'll prioritize the intel that matters most.

• Custom Instructions - Want star ratings on every pick? Love charts? Need straight-to-the-point prop bets? Tell Jaxon once, and he adapts forever.

That's the power of Chat Preferences. Start getting insights tailored to how you bet.

🏈 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Chargers

Philadelphia travels to Los Angeles in a game that looks completely different than it did a week ago, largely because of what's happening in the Chargers' training room.

Chargers QB, Justin Herbert, fractured a metacarpal in his non-throwing hand and is listed as questionable. Reports suggest he's unlikely to take snaps under center, and his availability depends entirely on swelling. Even if he plays, expect severe limitations. If he sits, backup Trey Lance takes over.

This injury completely reshapes how Los Angeles will approach this game.

The Eagles hold advantages in most efficiency metrics. They rank 11th in overall DVOA compared to the Chargers' 16th. Philadelphia's defense is particularly strong against the pass, ranking 1st in completion percentage allowed (56.42%) and generating consistent pressure with the 4th-best QB hit rate in the league.

But here's the vulnerability: Philadelphia ranks 23rd against the run, allowing 4.51 yards per carry. The Chargers know this, and with Herbert compromised, expect them to focus on the run game relentlessly.

The Chargers' defense ranks 1st in total yards allowed and 2nd in passing yards allowed. They force turnovers (3rd in interception rate) and limit big plays which is exactly what a struggling Eagles offense doesn't need to face.

Philadelphia has scored 21 points or fewer in four straight games. They managed just 20:42 of possession time against the Bears. This offense is stuck, and facing a defense that ranks first in limiting yardage won't make things easier.

Prediction: Chargers +2.5 (-113)

Los Angeles should win this game outright, but taking the points provides a little insurance. The game script favors the home team: they'll control the clock with their running game (RB Omarion Hampton returns from injury), attack Philly's weak run defense, and limit possessions for an Eagles offense that is struggling to sustain drives.

Add in Philadelphia's two-game skid, cross-country travel, and the loss of defensive tackle Jalen Carter (out with shoulder injury), and the Chargers are positioned to cover comfortably.

Prediction: Under 42.5 Total Points (-120)

This has defensive slugfest written all over it. The Eagles can't score consistently right now. Both defenses rank in the top half of the league in DVOA. Expect a low-scoring battle that stays well under this number.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏀 A 34-point night and another milestone. Clippers star moves into the Top-10 all time. 

🚑️ This is the worst possible time to have a quarterback crisis. The Colts’ situation is less than ideal. 

🏎️ Formula 1 finally has its 2025 champion. He’s “just crazy happy.”

🏈 Head-to-head results actually matter. The CFP field has some surprising inclusions.

😭 Tampa Bay's playoff hopes took a hit against the worst team in their division. A crucial drop in the red zone sealed their fate.

The Three Touchdown Plays Everyone's Overlooking

by Tony Reyes

In a low-scoring game, every touchdown scorer becomes premium real estate. The market knows this, which is why most of the obvious plays are priced accordingly. But there are three specific touchdown bets where the odds don't match the opportunity, and that's exactly where the value lives.

Let's start with the most obvious contradiction in the entire slate.

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown at +105 is almost insulting when you look at the actual data. This man ranks FIRST among all quarterbacks in red zone carries with 23 total attempts, and he's got 11 carries inside the five-yard line. He's already scored 8 rushing touchdowns this season, which ranks second among all QBs.

The Eagles' offense might be struggling between the 20s, but when they get close to the goal line, they're handing it to Hurts and letting him bulldoze his way in. The Chargers rank 23rd against quarterback touchdowns, which means they're historically bad at stopping mobile QBs from scoring. At plus money, this is a must-play.

Turning to the Chargers' backfield, the situation grows interesting.

The market is pricing Omarion Hampton at +170 like he's the guaranteed goal-line back, but that's not what the data shows. Kimani Vidal at +295 is the actual value here, and it's not even close. Vidal has MORE red zone carries per game than Hampton (2.78 vs 2.4), and he's coming off a 126-yard monster performance against the Raiders, where he scored his third touchdown of the season. 

The news explicitly says Hampton's workload will "rebuild gradually" because he's returning from injury, which means Vidal is keeping a massive chunk of the goal-line work. Getting +295 on a guy who averages more red zone touches and is the hot hand? That's a gift.

And finally, the receiving touchdown that everyone's going to miss.

Ladd McConkey at +225 is the play over DeVonta Smith at +245, and the gap should be WAY bigger. McConkey has 13 red zone targets this season compared to Smith's 8, which is 62% more volume when it matters most. He's also got two receptions inside the five-yard line, while Smith only has one. 

The Eagles rank 21st against wide receivers, which is a soft matchup, while Smith faces the Chargers' elite secondary, which ranks fourth against receivers. When the Chargers get inside the 20, and Herbert needs to throw, McConkey is the guy. The red zone usage doesn't lie. In a game where points are going to be scarce, these three touchdown scorers offer the clearest path to the end zone at prices that significantly undervalue their actual opportunity.

🏈 College Football Playoff Preview

Big welcome to Ed Egros, our newest contributor at The Pine Pulse. You can catch him on X @EdWithSports or head to his Substack for more content.

There are two dominant betting stories for the upcoming College Football Playoff.  The first is the sport’s annual tradition of griping and complaining over who did–and didn’t–get in.  Notre Dame, one of college football’s more popular brands, went from “last team in” last week, to “first team out”, swapping places with Miami even though neither played Saturday.  Fighting Irish athletic director Pete Bevacqua told Yahoo! Sports the snub was “like a collective feeling that we were all just punched in the stomach.”  And, as a protest, the school also announced the team will not play in any bowl game, skipping the postseason entirely.  

Whether you agree with the Committee or not, they may have done the rest of the field a favor.  Before the bracket was set, Notre Dame was 9/1 to win the National Championship on DraftKings, while Miami was 22/1.  ESPN’s predictive metrics were even more bullish on the Irish, having them 3rd in FPI (Miami was 7th) and 5th in SP+ (Miami was 9th).  Even when breaking down different aspects of the game offensively and defensively by Expected Points Added, Notre Dame is almost always ranking ahead of Miami:

With a rushing attack powered by Heisman contender Jeremiyah Love and a passing game led by quarterback C.J. Carr, Notre Dame’s exclusion effectively clears a dangerous contender from the board and makes life significantly easier for the favorites.  It’s ok to bet on teams with shorter odds to win it all.

The second involves all of these coaching changes.  The most notable has to be former Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin leaving his program before coaching the Rebels in the Playoff.  Mississippi wound up with the 6-seed and will host Tulane at 3:30p.m. ET Saturday, December 20th.  Some bettors may hesitate to lay 16.5 in light of the upheaval, but Jaxon still likes the favorites, and so do I.  For starters, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr. will remain with the program for Ole Miss’ playoff run.  Second, Ole Miss hammered Tulane earlier this season 45-10, outpassing the Green Wave by a whopping 203 yards!  Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall even benched his starting quarterback after going 5/17 for 56 yards.  When it comes to the rosters themselves, not much has changed since that Week 4 meeting.  Oh, by the way, Sumrall may be coaching this game, but he’s also juggling another gig, going to Florida at season’s end.  Kiffin’s departure should be a wash.

Then there’s Oregon, another Playoff team navigating staff turnover.  Both of its coordinators are leaving for head coaching gigs after the Playoff: OC Will Stein to Kentucky and DC Tosh Lupoi to Cal.  But, both are sticking around as the Ducks host James Madison at 7:30p.m. ET Saturday, December 20th.  Oregon is a 20.5-point favorite, and once again Jaxon likes the chalk, and I’m right there with him.  Few offenses have graded higher per PFF than Oregon’s.  When you think of the Ducks, you think of explosive plays, and quarterback Dante Moore has continued the tradition with a big-time throw rate of 7.3%, the highest among P4 gunslingers.  They also have a stable of running backs averaging more than six yards a carry, led by senior Noah Whittington and freshman Jordon Davison.  We’ve seen Oregon dismantle inferior competition several times throughout the season, including a 66-point victory over Oklahoma State in September and a 29-point drumming against Minnesota in November.  Even with their coordinators moving on after this run, I don’t expect distractions to get in the way here.

Not sure what to bet on?

With Jaxon, you don’t have to look very hard. Here are three things you can do right now to leverage Jaxon’s tools.

Ask Jaxon. Literally just ask. All Pine members get 5 free questions each month. If that’s not enough, start a 7-Day Free Trial for more.

Search Sheets. With the 7-Day trial, you also get access to our player prop sheets. Search projections for every prop from every US sport.

Discover Analysis. Every day we post in-depth analysis, projections, and recommendations from Jaxon. All free for the community.