🏈 Here's the Real Edge for TNF

The wait is finally over. NFL is back. A new season always feels electric: fresh storylines, bold predictions, and that sense that anything can happen. But if you’ve followed this league long enough, you know it has a rhythm. It swings like a pendulum. One year it’s all high-flying passing attacks, the next defenses adjust and suddenly the ground game is king again.

Running backs are the perfect example. In 2020, 13 of the top 14 fantasy picks were RBs. Fast forward a couple years and the “Zero RB” crowd had taken over. By last season, only four RBs cracked the first round. Then 2024 happened. The backs stayed healthy, the top-end guys smashed, and anyone who faded them felt the burn. Now drafts have flipped the other way, with RBs flying off the board early and mid-round options priced as cheap as they’ve ever been.

That’s the pendulum in action. From “RB Zero” gospel to “load up on backs or else” in just a few seasons. And it’s not just fantasy, star RBs are landing big extensions and there is talk of a “running back renaissance” buzzing again.

The challenge is knowing when the hype has gone too far and where the real edge still exists. That’s where Jaxon comes in—cutting through the noise, digging into the numbers, and helping you spot when the swing before the value slips to the other side.

🏆 Props Battle is Here

The wait’s over—our weekly Pine Props Battle kicks off today in Discord.

This week’s question is live (click the image below 👇). Cast your vote and prove you know football better than the crowd.

✅ Get it right → you’re in the running for $50 cash this week
✅ Stack wins all season → top spot scores a full year of Jaxon Premium ($999 value)

It’s free. It’s easy. And it’s happening now in the Pine Sports Discord. Go vote and join the battle.

🏈 NFL Kickoff: Cowboys vs. Eagles

In 2024, Philadelphia outpaced Dallas across nearly every metric: more points (463 to 350), more rushing yards (3,048 to 1,705), and a stingier defense (303 vs. 468 points allowed). The Cowboys leaned on the pass but struggled with turnovers and efficiency as key injuries quickly derailed their season. 

Philly will raise its banner as 7.5-point favorites (ML -390), with ESPN’s FPI giving them a 66% win probability. The Eagles bring back their punishing ground game and top-five defense from last season. They look well-positioned to kick off their title defense with a convincing win. Let’s get into the top plays for the game. 

Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111)

Jaxon’s Take: Barkley has been a steady over machine, clearing this number in 8 of his last 10 games while averaging 151 yards in that stretch. He also hit in 75% of games last season, showing strong consistency.

At home, he’s been just as reliable (75% hit rate, 136.7 yards per game). Against Dallas, the results have been mixed, but he’s still averaging 123.5 yards in two meetings last year. 

My Take: Barkley should eat in front of the Philly crowd. History doesn’t bode well for Barkley as the back with the most touches last year, and while some regression is expected, so is a hot start tomorrow night. 

Jalen Hurts Under 27.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

Jaxon’s Take: Hurts has been living under this number—going below 27.5 in 8 of his last 10 games with an average of just 21.7 attempts. Against Dallas specifically, he hasn’t cleared this mark in their last three meetings. Factor in Philly’s balanced offense and the data leans strongly to the under.

My Take: I see this as a game script play. The Eagles are 7.5 favorites at home, and if they’re controlling the game on the ground with Barkley, Hurts won’t need to throw 30 times. I think Dallas will likely sit back in zone to force shorter drives which sets up perfectly for Hurts to stay in the low-20s on attempts. I’m on the under too. 

DraftKings TNF 50% TD Scorer Boost

Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown (-190 ➡️ -127)

If I’m burning a 50% Profit Boost token on a single anytime touchdown scorer in this matchup, the pick is Saquon Barkley.

Why Barkley?

• The Eagles leaned on the run more than anyone last year (53.4% of snaps, #1 in the NFL).

• In the red zone, that number jumped to a ridiculous 63.9%. Translation: when they’re close, they’re handing it off.

• Dallas struggled badly against the run in 2024, giving up 138.6 yards/game (3rd-worst), 5.1 yards/carry (2nd-worst), and a league-high 23 rushing TDs in the red zone.

• Barkley was a volume monster, topping 19 carries in 11 games and 90+ yards in 12.

The odds (-195 to -200) reflect his high probability, but with a profit boost attached, the value becomes too strong to pass up. Saquon finding the end zone is one of the safest ways to leverage this boost on opening night.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤝 ‘Deal’ or no deal? Depends who you ask. Dallas says Parsons agreed in the room; his camp says the agent never saw terms.

🚨 No more playoff loopholes. NHL closes the door on LTIR tricks that let contenders stack rosters before the Cup run.

⚽ Liverpool smash transfer record. The Reds land Alexander Isak for £125m from Newcastle, handing him the iconic No. 9 shirt.

🥊 The UFC belt is heavy. The paycheck isn’t. Aspinall headlines UFC 321 in October, but the real fight might be for a fair check.

🔥 Osaka + Auger-Aliassime steal the show. Both underdogs punched into the quarters on Labor Day with statement wins.

🏅 Survivor Pool Week 1

There’s nothing more stressful (or fun) than Survivor Pools, one wrong pick and you’re done. Last season, with Jaxon’s help, we made it all the way to Week 17 before the Giants ruined our run. We hedged for profit, but it still stings. I’ve been anxious to try again this season. 

If you’re new to Survivor Pools, it’s simple. You pick one team each week to win outright. Once you use a team you cannot use them again. Lose once and you’re out. Upsets happen, so having multiple entries (or paths) helps.  

I’m going to share “Path A” and “Path B” each week. This segment could end Week 4… or ride all the way to January! It’s all about dodging landmines early.

Path A: Denver Broncos (-7.5 vs Titans)

Quick reason: highest win odds this season, at home, not divisional.

Two teams stand out as the obvious choices this week. The Broncos host the Titans as 7.5 point favorites and the Eagles are now 8.5 point favorites at Home against the Cowboys. The Broncos stand out as my personal favorite. This is going to be one of their highest win-odds games of the season and I prefer to avoid any divisional matchups if possible which rules out the Eagles this week. 

If you choose not to take the Broncos this week, I have them penciled in again on Week 7 at home against the Giants. 

Path B: Arizona Cardinals (-5.5 at Saints)

Quick reason: Saints’ offense looks broken (Kamara banged up last year, Olave injury history, shaky QB play)

My alternative to the Broncos in Week 1 is comfortably the Cardinals on the road against New Orleans. I normally would aim for Home teams, but when I look at this Saints roster I genuinely don’t see who is capable of winning games for them. 

Kamara finished last season on the injury list and did not play in the preseason. Their star receiver, Chris Olave, missed a total of 9 games last season and has a QB who has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) in the NFL. Let’s just say the Cardinals’ defense can’t wait. 

👀 Think you’ve got a better read?

Tag @PineSports_AI on X and tell us about it! Or show us how it’s done in the Props Battle in Discord! Either way, we’re pumped to kick off this NFL season off with you!