The second round tips off tonight, and the matchup between San Antonio and Minnesota series features two elite defenses, two generational big men, and a superstar injury situation that could determine the entire outcome before a single bucket.

Start with what we know. The Spurs finished 62-20 and enter this series with the third-ranked defense in the league, built almost entirely around Victor Wembanyama. His numbers this season were absurd. He blocked 3.1 shots per game, ranked in the 100th percentile in plus-minus among bigs, and San Antonio's defense gets measurably worse the moment he sits down.

On the other end of this matchup, Rudy Gobert remains the gold standard for traditional rim protection, shooting 68.2% from the field and rebounding at one of the highest rates in the league. When both of these players are on the floor at full strength, something has to give.

The Anthony Edwards situation is the variable that changes everything. He suffered a left knee bone bruise and hyperextension on April 25th and is currently listed as questionable, though he is not expected to suit up for Game 1 despite the upgraded status. The realistic target for his return is Game 3 in Minnesota. Edwards averaged 36.7 points per game against San Antonio this season while shooting 51.9% from three.

Without him, Minnesota loses their primary shot creator, their transition engine, and the one player who forces defenses to completely reorganize. Jaden McDaniels scored 32 in the clinching win over Denver and will carry more responsibility, but Ayo Dosunmu is also dealing with a sore calf, which thins the backcourt further.

San Antonio's discipline makes them dangerous regardless of who shows up for Minnesota. The Spurs rank fourth in the league in turnover percentage and second in corner three frequency, meaning they generate high-value looks consistently without giving possessions away. Minnesota ranks 17th in ball security.

If Edwards is out for Game 1, San Antonio is the overwhelming favorite and the spread reflects it. If he surprises everyone and plays, the entire series shifts immediately.

Either way, it’s must-watch basketball this week. Scroll down for the top player props to start Round 2.

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🏀 Player Props for Round 2 Tip Off

Before we move on from the Spurs game, there is one play to make regardless of Anthony Edwards’ status. It’s all about the big man on the Spurs.

Victor Wembanyama (SAS) Over 27.5 Points (-122)

Wembanyama averaged 34 points over his two regular-season matchups against Minnesota, clearing this line in both. His usage rate sits in the 98th percentile among bigs, meaning the Spurs' offense flows through him on virtually every meaningful possession.

The Timberwolves' defense is good, but they rank 27th in the league defending corner threes, allowing 41% on those attempts, and Wembanyama shoots 43% from that exact location. If he gets some clean looks from the corner, expect him to drain a couple to help his points total.

In a Game 1 where San Antonio will look to establish dominance, likely without Edwards disrupting their offense, Wemby getting to 28 feels like the baseline rather than the ceiling.

Joel Embiid (PHI) Over 0.5 Double Doubles (+110)

Philadelphia pulled off one of the more remarkable comebacks in recent playoff history, erasing a 3-1 deficit against Boston to reach the second round. It’s their first series win over Boston in 44 years. Now they get to walk into Madison Square Garden against a rested Knicks team that just put up 140 points in a closeout win.

The series is going to depend a lot on whether Embiid can stay healthy and dominant enough to keep a statistically outmatched 76ers roster competitive against a New York team with the third-ranked offense and seventh-ranked defense in the league.

Embiid has recorded a double-double in three of his last four games since returning from his most recent injury and has hit this in every game he has played against the Knicks this season. His rebounding average over his last five games sits at 9.6, and getting plus money on a player with this kind of matchup history is the kind of spot worth taking.

Luguentz Dort (OKC) Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105)

Tuesday's series opener features the defending champion Thunder hosting a Lakers team that is dealing with Luka Doncic's absence and a defensive profile that ranks 29th in rim protection. When the Lakers collapse to stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's drives, Dort will get open looks on the perimeter. He has been taking full advantage with an 80% hit rate over his last ten games. He hit this line in all three regular-season matchups against Los Angeles, averaging 2.67 makes per game.

Oklahoma City finished 64-18 and outscored the Lakers by an average of 29 points per game during the regular season, winning all four games. The Lakers need to prioritize stopping SGA, which means Dort stays open. He ranks in the 87th percentile for three-point frequency among wings and his confidence is at a high after a pivotal late-series performance. Back him to keep it going Tuesday night.

🌲 The Pine Line

🥊 Find out the one thing that could stop Dana White’s UFC Freedom fights. I bet it’s not what you think it is.

📆 The NFL schedule is coming. Nobody knows exactly when, not even the people making it.

⛳️ The leader of a PGA event stopped to penalize himself. Maybe it’s easier to do when you have a big lead.

🏎️ The new engines in F1 cars are already on borrowed time. The FIA is pushing to scrap them earlier than planned.

🏒 The final score doesn’t begin to capture what just happened in Denver. This Colorado team is a different animal.

🏒 Can the Ducks Continue Their Dream Playoff Run?

You can tell a lot about a hockey team’s expectations for winning the Stanley Cup simply by how much money they spend in a given season.

Take the Anaheim Ducks

It seems like every graphic on a televised Ducks game is about the playoff drought the franchise has endured.  This year marks both the first time they’ve made the playoffs since 2018 and first time they’ve won a series since 2017.

They also have a history of spending less money than most anyone else.  Take the 2021-22 season when their active payroll was not only the lowest in the league, it was $10 million less than the next team.  

Fast Forward to 2026

Anaheim still plays with a budget.  Their active payroll ranks 25th out of 32 teams.  But, the mix of veteran talent like Alex Killorn and Chris Kreider, to go with a three-time champion head coach in Joel Quenneville, means they know how to do more with less.  

The Ducks also have a ton of cap space going forward.  This playoff run will be an excellent evaluation for what they need to make an even deeper run, no matter what happens against Vegas.

What the Ducks are Up Against

Vegas has the second-highest payroll in the league.  Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and company command major cap hits, and it makes sense the moment this hockey team was struggling, they’d swap head coaches.  

The Golden Knights were able to knock off Utah by generating a lot of high-danger shots on goal.  When the stars are playing to their potential, they’re a tough out for anyone.

How to Bet the Series

Game 1 begins Monday night in Vegas.  The talent disparity is evident in the payroll gap.  The home ice advantage is real.  Vegas’ penalty kill, which allowed the third-fewest goals this regular season with 36, is designed to neutralize some of Anaheim’s best scorers like Cutter Gauthier.  

I’d take the Golden Knights -1.5 series spread at +116.

Monday’s Slate

Let’s focus on Monday’s two games as Jaxon and I offer our best bets:

Logan Stankoven (Carolina) O0.5 Points (+100)

While skaters like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov often dominate the headlines, Logan Stankoven has become a staple of Carolina’s top-six rotation.

Stankoven has recorded a point in each of his last 13 games!  He finds a way to get to the net, having shot a total of 19 high-danger and mid-range shots on goal these playoffs.  And that’s in just five games!

Philadelphia has already given up a lot of expected goals these playoffs.  Expect Stankoven to take advantage of the favorable matchup and net at least one point.

Leo Carlsson (Anaheim) O2.5 Shots on Goal (-150)

Just because I have Vegas winning this series in six games or fewer doesn’t mean Leo Carlsson can’t be productive.

Not only is Carlsson one of the top goal scorers for the Ducks, he ranks third on the team with 34 takeaways. 

Generating chances off odd-man rushes is one big way Carlsson will get several shots off.

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