As that dreaded "e" starts appearing next to team names in the standings, a fascinating pattern emerges across the NFL: home teams begin to dominate in ways we don't see earlier in the season. While conventional wisdom suggests home-field advantage has diminished to just 1-2 points league-wide, December football tells a different story entirely. Home teams consistently cover by a wider margin in December.

The late-season crucible amplifies everything. Elite coaches like Sean McVay (27-11 in December) and Matt LaFleur (21-4) seem to find another gear this time of year. Star quarterbacks rise to the moment, like Lamar Jackson's absurd 15-0 record in Weeks 15-18.

It's not just playoff motivation driving this trend. The road team's offensive efficiency craters as winter descends. Dome teams venturing into sub-30-degree weather lose by double digits on average. Wind above 15 mph suppresses scoring for quarterbacks and kickers.

As teams cross the country on short rest, battling elements they rarely face at home, late-season home field might be worth even more than it used to be now that we have an 18-week season. In December or later, double-digit favorites in games with low totals (under 40 points) are 27-19-2 ATS. This suggests that the home team can cover a large spread even in a low-scoring environment, often because the road team's offense is severely limited by the factors above.

This weekend the already-eliminated Browns head to Chicago to face the 9-4 Bears. It’s expected to be 10 degrees at game time with some decent wind and a chance of snow. The 2-11 Raiders leave their covered stadium in the desert and travel to Philadelphia. I hope they brought their snow boots. Below freezing temps, wind, and snow on the forecast for much of the east coast.

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🏈 Thursday Night: Falcons at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites, but the advanced metrics suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Tampa Bay holds only a marginal edge in overall DVOA (17th vs. Atlanta's 21st), and both offenses rank in the bottom third of the league.

Here's where this game gets decided: Atlanta ranks 3rd in the NFL in sack rate (10.49%) with 43 total sacks and 6th in QB pressure rate (30.18%). They're built to disrupt passing games. Tampa Bay's offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is questionable, and reports indicate the offensive line is dealing with multiple issues. If Wirfs is limited or sits, Baker Mayfield faces an elite pass rush with a compromised front.

Mayfield's numbers already show vulnerability: he ranks 16th among quarterbacks this season in Passing EPA and 26th in yards per attempt (6.53). They move the ball between the 20s but can't finish. Mayfield's completion percentage plummets to 20% inside the 5-yard line.

Atlanta’s big problem is they rank 31st in third-down conversions (31.37%). That being said, Tampa Bay's defense ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.2) and struggles against receiving backs. If Atlanta uses Robinson and Allgeier creatively in the passing game, they can exploit Tampa's soft secondary and generate chunk plays without relying on their abysmal third-down offense.

Tampa Bay has lost five of their last seven games, including their most recent home loss to the Saints where they managed just 20 points. They're trending down at the worst possible time.

Atlanta is only 1-8 in their last nine, but divisional context matters: they swept Tampa Bay in 2024 and lost by only three points in their Week 1 matchup this season. Thursday night divisional games are notoriously tight, low-scoring affairs.

All signs point to a grinding, low-scoring game where neither team can pull away.

Predictions: Atlanta Falcons +4.5

Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

This is the strongest individual matchup on the board. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in receiving yards allowed to running backs, and Robinson is one of the league's elite receiving threats out of the backfield.

Robinson averages 46.31 receiving yards per game, ranking 2nd among all running backs. He ranks 2nd in Receiving EPA (22.43) and 3rd in yards after catch (45.0 YAC/game). He's hit this over in 69.23% of his games this season with 602 receiving yards on 70 targets, making him a central piece of Atlanta's passing attack.

In their previous meeting this season, Robinson torched Tampa Bay for 100 yards and a touchdown on 6-of-7 targets. The Buccaneers have shown zero ability to contain him in space.

With Atlanta struggling on third downs (31st in the league), expect them to lean heavily on Robinson in the short passing game to move the chains.

Tyler Allgeier Anytime Touchdown (+190)

The market is severely undervaluing Allgeier's goal-line role. While Robinson gets more attention as the lead back, the numbers tell a completely different story when the Falcons get close to the end zone.

Allgeier has 8 rushing touchdowns this season compared to Robinson's 5, despite having half the total carries (108 vs. 215). Tyler dominates the high-leverage touches: 18 carries inside the 10-yard line (15th in the NFL) compared to Robinson's 13. Allgeier averages 0.62 touchdowns per game and has scored in 60% of his last five games and 60% of his last 10 games.

While Tampa Bay ranks 8th in rushing yards allowed per game (100.62), they rank 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed, giving up 15 scores on the ground (1.15 per game).

Atlanta gave Allgeier 11 carries last week, even with Robinson healthy, confirming his role as the short-yardage and goal-line specialist remains secure. At +190 odds for a player averaging over half a touchdown per game in his specialized role, this represents significant value. For comparison, Robinson's odds sit at just -133.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 He’s really coming back. Colts sign retiree 5-years removed from the league.

⚽️ Five Championships since 2014. Seminoles close out the chaotic 64-team College Cup.

👑 At this point, Messi's just showing off. His newest award puts him in a category of one.

🧊 The 2026 Olympics have an ice problem. The NHL is “cautiously optimistic.”

🏆️ Did you make the playoffs this season? If so, I hope you have a first round bye. 

Can Jonathan Taylor Still Win Offensive Player of the Year?

by Ed Egros

Things are looking bleak in Indianapolis.  The Colts are on a three-game losing streak, with two of these defeats happening against divisional foes.  Not only have they lost the lead in the AFC South, they’ve also lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the season.  

That sadness has even turned into shock when reports surfaced that the team may turn to 44-year-old Philip Rivers to bail them out!

For us bettors, we care about this downfall for a variety of reasons.  Let’s discuss one of them: if it is worth betting on Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year.  

The Race for OPY

Before this skid, much of the celebration in Indy was because of JT. At one point, it seemed like he would, no pun intended, run away with Offensive Player of the Year honors.  After all, it was just one month ago when Taylor rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta.  

But, after spending much of the rest of the month neck and neck with Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win the award, JSN has since surged to become the odds-on favorite: 

It’s not just Seattle’s dominance on the scoreboard lately why this shift has happened.  In his last four games, Smith-Njigba has 26 catches for 387 yards and four touchdowns!

Is It Too Late for JT?

This question is a great opportunity to get insights from Jaxon.  The AI interface can help us figure out what trends to key in on before placing a bet in this market.

Comparing the Backs

Over the last month, it is clear one running back has been much more efficient than the rest in terms of rushing yards per attempt and, because it could matter to the award, receiving yards per target: 

The winning results have not always been there for the Lions lately, but Gibbs does have a mammoth performance to his credit in November against the Giants: 264 all-purpose yards and three total touchdowns.  

As for McCaffrey, just as Jaxon suggested, he may not have that one colossal box score performance lately, but his entire career is chock-full of them.  It’s a value play to bet on him now, and with four games remaining, there is enough time to see a couple of them, coupled with another 49ers winning streak.

The Verdict on Taylor’s Chances

As for Taylor, unless the Colts can prove they can create a passing game with a backup quarterback, defenses are going to be more comfortable stacking the box. It's safe to say they are willing to invest in stopping JT and taking their chances against Rivers, or anyone else, burning them.

The Colts also have to face a couple of the top defenses in the NFL—Seattle and Houston—to wrap up the regular season. As great of a start Jonathan Taylor had to this year, the challenges around him have made it incredibly difficult for him to win Offensive Player of the Year.

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