Baseball has a problem, and almost nobody in the sport expects it to be solved before the December 1st deadline.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, 2026, and all signs point to a lockout as a near-certainty. The gap between MLB ownership and the Players Association isn't a negotiating gap. It's a philosophical one: owners are pushing for baseball's first-ever salary cap, and the union has spent decades treating that demand as a line it will never cross.

Reports suggest 29 of 30 owners support some form of cap, which isn’t surprising since it’s their money we’re talking about spending. Early proposals floated a ceiling around $260 to $280 million paired with a floor near $140 to $160 million. Commissioner Rob Manfred has personally visited clubhouses to make his case but the union's response has been blunt.

Jake Cronenworth put it plainly: the union has taken a hard stance against a cap, not just this negotiation, but permanently. The union points to concrete data from every capped league as justification. The NFL's player revenue share fell from 64% to 48% after a cap was implemented. The NBA's dropped from 57% to 51%. The NHL's from 57% to 50%. MLB players already receive roughly 44 to 45% of league revenue, the lowest share among the four major leagues even without a cap. Accepting a cap, in the union's view, means accepting a ceiling that history shows only comes down.

The financial preparations on both sides signal that neither expects a quick resolution. Ownership has reportedly accumulated a war chest of approximately $2 billion, roughly $75 million per team, built from withheld national television revenues and licensing fees over the past five years. That figure could theoretically sustain owners through the loss of an entire season. The MLBPA, for its part, voted in December 2024 to withhold 100% of its 2024 licensing revenue to build a strike fund reportedly larger than the one it held in 2021. These preparations aren't unusual when a CBA expires. The scale is.

The shadow hanging over all of it is 1994, the last time ownership pushed for a cap. That standoff canceled the World Series, triggered a massive attendance decline, and took over a decade to reverse.

The players won then. They view this fight the same way.

With record league revenue hitting $12.1 billion in 2024 and a massive media rights auction approaching in 2029, both sides have enormous stakes and plenty of leverage. That combination rarely produces a quick handshake.

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🏀 NBA Spread Predictions Tonight

We’re on a hot streak with the NBA game bets, 6 wins in a row. Let's keep it going. Monday night serves up three games worth paying close attention to before tip-off.

Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5 (-115)

The efficiency gap between these two teams is meaningful even when both rosters are healthy. Cleveland sits 7th in net rating at +4.3, ranks 5th in offensive rating, and 6th in effective field goal percentage. Philadelphia is at -0.3 in net rating and 23rd in effective field goal percentage. That's a massive mismatch on paper.

Then, the injury report. Philadelphia is without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe (questionable), and Johni Broome. That's their offensive engine, their pace-setter, and their defensive anchor all sitting out in the same game.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is in a completely different situation than what Philadelphia is fielding. The Cavs could potentially have every player available tonight. If that’s the case, the Cavs rank 3rd in points per game at 119.1 and 10th in offensive rebounding, which happens to exploit Philadelphia's 24th-ranked putback points allowed. A healthy Cavs team should win by double digits.

Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 (-120)

This is the marquee matchup on tonight’s slate. Denver owns the league's best offensive rating at 120.0 and the second-best effective field goal percentage at 57.3%. Oklahoma City owns the league's best defensive rating at 105.9, the best rim defense, the best midrange defense, and the best halfcourt points per 100 plays allowed at 90.9.

Denver's road record sits at 15-14 and their defense ranks 22nd in the league, which is a significant liability against a Thunder team that is 26-6 at home and 35-9 against conference opponents this season.

The Thunder's net rating of +10.9 leads the NBA by a comfortable margin. Although Denver is genuinely dangerous, the combination of home court, elite defense, and Denver's defensive vulnerabilities make the Thunder covering at home the right call here.

Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-120)

On paper, a Warriors team missing Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford covering 4.5 points sounds like a tough sell. Look at what's on the other side of the ledger. Utah ranks dead last in defensive rating at 120.5, is sitting at 19-45 on the season, and is openly prioritizing draft positioning over winning basketball right now.

Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all ruled out, leaving Utah without any meaningful interior resistance against a Warriors system that ranks sixth in rim efficiency and second in three-point shot frequency at 47.5% of all attempts.

Golden State's defensive rating of 112.9 ranks 12th in the league. Utah's offense ranks 21st. The Warriors' net rating is +1.2 despite the injury carnage to their roster, which speaks to how functional the system remains without its stars. Utah has every incentive to lose this game, and a depleted Golden State still has every advantage needed to make that happen.

 🌲 The Pine Line

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🏎️ Formula 1’s new era arrived this weekend. The chaos did not disappoint.

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♠️ Gronk sat down at a televised poker game against actual poker players. He won’t be winning any rings at this game.

The NHL Rich Got Richer After the Deadline

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Monday’s NHL slate only features five games, but the light load gives us a chance to reflect on who truly is the best in the league after Friday’s trade deadline.  In total, 20 trades involving 33 players happened just before the “buzzer”.  

Colorado Remains the Favorite

Not only are the Avalanche a shoo-in to win the Presidents’ Trophy with the league’s best record, they still got better.  Colorado acquired center Nazem Kadri, who currently ranks in the 94th percentile in mid-danger shots on goals and in the 92nd percentile in high-danger shots on goals, meaning he can get close to the net and give any goalie fits.

Add to that Nicolas Roy who should be their fourth-line center and you have absurd offensive depth that will be challenging for anyone to slow down.

+260 to win the Cup is a rather short number.  Given how volatile the playoffs usually are, it’s a dangerous proposition to place that bet now, so I would wait until playoff series are announced to maximize my earnings.  

The Ducks Should Make the Playoffs

On FanDuel, Anaheim is -2500 to play beyond Game 82.  It would be the first time in eight years they made the Stanley Cup Playoffs, with a lot of futility in the years between.

Anaheim picked up defenseman John Carlson, a two-way skater who fills a big need at the blue line given that Anaheim needed to address their struggles limiting goals and medium-danger shots against this season.  

Jaxon and I agree the only future to even consider for Anaheim is to win the Pacific Division at +220.  Yes, Vegas and Edmonton are strong contenders, but the lead they currently possess and the mix of veteran talent with youngsters like winger Cutter Gauthier put Anaheim in a unique position to hang on and finish just ahead of the pack.

A Mammoth Move

Utah picked up defenseman MacKenzie Weegar from Calgary to further boost their blue line.  Defensively, they rank sixth in the league in shots allowed per game and third in the league in goals allowed per contest: 

As a result, Utah has really short odds to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  But, at 25/1 to win the Cup, their defense could be disruptive enough to steal games in a series.  

They may also draw Anaheim in the first round, and given the Ducks’ negative goal differential, the path may help Utah as well.  It’s worth a sprinkle.

As for Monday’s Action

The one game I’ll be watching carefully is the Flames at the Capitals.  

Calgary traded away a lot this deadline, including the aforementioned Kadri and Weegar.  However, they did upset a contender in Carolina on Saturday, 5-4.  Given what Calgary showed us Saturday, there’s one bet Jaxon and I both recommend.

Flames at Capitals O5.5 Goals (-135)

Washington still has Alex Ovechkin and Aliaksei Protas.  Especially if Calgary gets out to an early lead, Washington will be willing to shoot more and give up more to stay in the hockey game.

Also, given some defensive injuries that may impact Calgary’s penalty kill, there are many ways this game becomes high scoring.  

Stay Sharp 

Don't head into tonight’s action without an edge. Ask Jaxon for insights on iOS or Android 👇️ 

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