The Southeast Division is the tightest race in the NBA right now, and I think the betting market is getting this one wrong. Four teams are separated by two games, the standings look like a coin flip, and yet the odds are pricing this like the outcome is already decided. Far from it.

Start with the division leading Hawks. Atlanta has won 12 of their last 13, something not many expected especially after Trae Young left for the Wizards. Their net rating of +1.2 is the second worst among the four contenders and have the toughest remaining schedule in the division. Atlanta at +200 is currently a buy-high situation where the public is paying for a hot streak.

Orlando at +150 is the current favorite and the most confusing price to me. The Magic rank last among the four contenders in net rating at +0.9, rank 24th in the league in effective field goal percentage, and are currently without Franz Wagner, Jonathan Isaac, and Anthony Black. Already a game back, it’s hard for me to see the Magic as favorites out of these four teams and I wouldn’t back them at this price.

Next up is Miami. The Heat sit at +340 despite a +2.8 net rating, a top-six defense, and the fastest pace in the entire NBA. Their perimeter defense is elite, holding opponents to 35.1% from three. Oh yeah, and Bam Adebayo just posted one of the most historic individual performances in league history [Watch]. Miami is one game back and is certainly a contender to make a late run.

Charlotte at +500 is the longshot that doesn’t feel like a longshot. The Hornets lead the division in net rating at +4.1, rank 5th in the NBA in offensive rating, and are three games into a seven-game homestand which they’ve started 3-0. Their 11-5 divisional record gives them a tiebreaker edge if this race stays tight. This is my favorite pick of the bunch.

Get ready to end the season with a wild division title race!

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🏀 The Southeast Division Takes Center Stage

Three of the teams we just broke down in the Southeast division race have games tonight, and the same metrics driving that divisional analysis point to some clear edges on the board.

Orlando Magic -12.5 over Indiana

Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, and potentially Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard, leaving the Pacers running a skeleton crew against one of the better defensive teams in the Eastern Conference.

Orlando ranks third in the league in three-pointers attempted allowed and first in three-pointers made allowed. Paolo Banchero and the Magic interior should feast against a Pacers defense that ranks 26th in defensive rating and 26th in rim shot frequency allowed.

The recent head-to-head history supports the number too. Orlando has won four of their last five meetings with Indiana. A 12.5 point spread might seam light by the time this one is done.

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 over Miami

San Antonio has been one of the most dominant teams in the league all season, owning the second-best record in the Western Conference and a net rating of +7.5, fourth in the NBA. Miami checks in at +2.8.

The Heat are without Andrew Wiggins, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Norman Powell are both listed as day-to-day. For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama anchors a defensive unit that holds opponents to a 62.6% effective field goal percentage at the rim, second best in the NBA.

San Antonio has won nine of their last ten games straight up and posted a +10.9 net differential during that stretch. Miami has dropped four of their last five.

Atlanta Hawks -13.5 over Memphis

Memphis is essentially fielding a development roster right now. Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, and Scotty Pippen Jr. are all out.

Atlanta is maybe the worst possible matchup for a depleted team trying to survive on hustle. The Hawks rank first in assists per game and third in transition efficiency. Memphis ranks 29th in defensive rebounding percentage and 22nd in overall defensive rating.

The Hawks have covered in four of their last five games and have won nine of their last ten at home. Atlanta should jump ahead early and never look back.

🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Turns out flag football’s best players aren’t who you think. Team USA flexed it’s collection of talent against the NFL’s best.

🏒 Only two players to ever do it. Number 1,000 arrived exactly the way you’d expect.

⛳️ The best possible response to last week’s heartbreak. Fitzpatrick showed up with something to prove.

🏎️ The Nurburgring race had a clear and familiar winner this weekend. Everything changed for the Dutchman after the checkered flag.

🏀 Luka earned a one-game suspension with his 16th technical foul. Now the NBA is changing its mind.

How to Bet on NBA Sixth Man of the Year

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Less than a month away before the NBA regular season ends, a quick glance at betting odds shows us most awards are looking like runaways.  A couple like Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year seem to be two-man races.  

But, the most wide open is Sixth Man of the Year.  At last check on DraftKings, four players have odds of +450 or shorter to win the honor.

The Fine Print

To win Sixth Man, a player must come off the bench more often than he starts.  However, unlike other awards, there is no requirement for having played at least 65 games that season.

Historical Trends

Since the 1982-83 season, more shooting guards have won the honor than any other position (22 times out of 43 times, nearly half).  This trend makes intuitive sense because the winner is coming off the bench to be an offensive spark, and shooting quickly and efficiently is an effective way to fill that role with limited minutes.  

Power forwards have won the honor 11 times (26%), though no one with that label has claimed the honor since Lamar Odom in 2010-11.  No other position has won it more than four times; however, the last two winners were point guard Payton Pritchard and center Naz Reid.  

Team Success

The last six champions played for teams that finished third or better in their conference.  And before that, Lou Williams captured the honor for a third time, helping lead the L.A. Clippers back to the playoffs.  Keep in mind, voting happens at the end of the regular season, so team projections or playoff runs do not matter.

Any Other Clues?

A quick glance at advanced metrics like Value Over Replacement Player or Win Shares does not tell us much.  The NBA is not like baseball where WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a great indicator for individual accolades.  

Laying the Groundwork

Looking ahead to this year’s race, we are looking for scorers who tend to play in the backcourt.  Also, it’s worth noting the top three teams in each conference are: the Pistons, Celtics and Knicks, and the Thunder, Spurs and Lakers.  

So, given there are four players with short-ish odds, let’s only pick two players to bet on, one with shorter odds and one longshot.  Here’s what Jaxon’s AI tools and I like.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. +190

The Miami Heat small forward ranks among the top scorers off the bench in the NBA, averaging 15 points, five rebounds and five assists per game.  The scoring is there, and the playmaking makes him a complete offensive weapon off the bench.

Miami is nowhere near the top of the Eastern Conference standings and they’ve lost four-straight.  But, they have several winnable games including two against Washington and one versus Indiana that could cement Jaquez’s chances of taking the honor.

Ajay Mitchell +2200

If voters return to their ways of choosing the best team and its bench, Oklahoma City shooting guard Ajay Mitchell is worth a look.  Though he’s only played in 49 games, Mitchell is averaging 14 points, four rebounds and four assists per contest.

Given how loaded the Thunder are, that Mitchell can still contribute in a massive way speaks to his ability.  With 11 games remaining, Mitchell could reach 60 games played.  That’s a threshold that may ease voter concerns about his availability, solidifying his scoring role and making a late but compelling case for Sixth Man of the Year.

Still not sure what to bet on?

Use the Parlay Generator for instant picks or discover player props on the consistency sheets! Pine Sports has the tools to give you an edge when it matters most.