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š Monday Night Football Has an Unstoppable Force
Jonathan Taylor Trade Buzz and Monday Nightās Best Props
A week ago, Jonathan Taylor wasnāt going anywhere. Barely a week ago, Adam Schefter reported that Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon didnāt want to trade him. By Saturday, Indianapolis was taking calls, and talks with several teams are now underway ahead of the November 10th deadline.
Indianapolis is 2-6, already fired GM Chris Ballard, has more heads on the chopping block, and has already traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner. Taylor hasnāt asked to be moved. With 610 rushing yards and eight touchdowns through eight games, heās playing at a very high level, and several teams would love to add him to their backfield. His contract runs through 2028 at $16.2 million this year, which makes him a long-term addition rather than a short rental.
Minnesota might make the most sense. The Vikings are 6-1 despite ranking 28th in offensive EPA per play, Aaron Jones turns 32 in December with knee issues, and Jordan Mason is a free agent after the season. Taylor would be a significant upgrade and give Kyler Murray a steady run game to work off of.
Denver needs a back even more. The Broncos rank 30th in rushing success rate, and RJ Harvey just went on IR, leaving J.K. Dobbins and a rookie. Sean Payton has wanted a workhorse back since he got there and this is probably his best chance.
Seattle already gained new talent from the Colts with the Nelson trade, and its run game hasnāt been the same since Kenneth Walker III left. The question is whether the Seahawks wait to see Zach Charbonnet and rookie Jadarian Price come back from injury first.
Last but not least, the Giants are a long shot. Theyāre leading the NFC East, and pairing Taylor with Cam Skattebo could be fun. Tyrone Tracy is on IR and Skattebo is perpetually questionable, so someone like Taylor with bring their offense some much needed stability.
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š MNF Best Bets: Fade the Run, Target the Receivers
Tonight in Seattle, the strengths line up head-to-head. Chicago entered Week 8 leading the NFL in rushing yards at 154 yards per game and runs more plays than anyone. Seattle has the leagueās best defense by DVOA, allows the fewest yards per play, and hasnāt given up a 100-yard rusher in 36 straight games, a franchise record. Something has to give, and the edge goes to Seattle.
The Bearsā defense is a mixed bag. It ranks last in yards per play and yards per pass attempt allowed, but opponents rarely get many chances. Chicago allows the fewest plays in the league, gets off the field on third down, and leads the NFL in sack rate. Thatās bad news for Sam Darnold, whose eight interceptions are tied for the league lead.
Chicagoās best chance at an upset is in the red zone, where Seattle has allowed points on 78.6% of opponent trips. The last two meetings averaged under 30 combined points, and Chicago covered both, so expect a close, low-scoring game with the 3-point spread in play.
Smith-Njigba leads the league with 867 receiving yards, 141 more than anyone else. Heās topped 100 yards in four of his last five games, and this matchup is ideal. Chicago ranks last in yards allowed per catch, and four straight quarterbacks have completed a 40+ yard pass against them. With Rashid Shaheed out, even more targets could head his way.
Odunze has cleared this line in all seven games this season, averaging 54.4 yards. Seattle shuts down the slot and the middle of the field, which pushes throws to the outside, which favors Odunze. As road underdogs, the Bears should also be throwing more as the game progresses.
Charbonnet is cleared to play, and Mike Macdonald called him a three-down back and one of the best pass blockers around. That means snaps on passing downs, which matters here because Chicagoās run defense ranks third in yards per carry allowed. His receiving work should help carry this prop. Heās averaging 60.7 combined yards over his last 10 games, well over the line, and he was competing for snaps with Kenneth Walker through that spell.
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š„ Zach Charbonnet Anytime TD (+125)
Zach Charbonnet wasnāt Seattleās busiest running back last season, but he was the one who scored. Kenneth Walker III got more carries, while Charbonnet took the goal-line work, and that made the difference. He scored 12 rushing touchdowns, sixth among all running backs, while averaging fewer than 12 carries a game. Inside the 5, he out-carried Walker 19 to 8 and outscored him 9 to 3.
Walker is gone now, and Charbonnet is back from a knee injury. Seattleās run game has struggled all season, ranking 24th in yards per carry, so the coaching staff is eager to get him going. Mike Macdonald called him a three-down back and one of the best pass-blocking backs in the league. In other words, heāll be on the field in every situation, including near the goal line.
Chicago doesnāt let teams run much, allowing the fewest carries in the league. Once opponents reach the red zone, though, the Bears are much easier to score on, ranking 24th in touchdown rate allowed. A back who gets most of his touches close to the end zone is a good fit against that defense.
Charbonnetās stats from last season support the pick. This will be his season debut, but even behind Walker last season heās scored in three of his last five games and in 6 of his last 10. At home, heās scored in six of his last eight games.
There is some risk. Jadarian Price is also returning and could take some carries, and we havenāt seen Charbonnet be very efficient between the 20s. But at +125, youāre getting a goal-line back with a big role at home, and thatās worth a bet.
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