Before we get into tonight’s MNF matchup, we have some MLB business to take care of.

It’s all square heading to LA for Game 3 of the World Series tonight and it’s a storyline fit for Hollywood. Max Scherzer will become the first pitcher to appear in the World Series for four different teams when he takes the mound. His 10.89 K/9 over his last five starts shows he can still generate swings and misses, but opponents are hitting .310 against him and his home-run rate has spiked to 2.9 per nine innings. That’s a dangerous combination against a Dodgers lineup ranked second in MLB in runs per game and boasting a .329 wOBA versus right-handers.

Tyler Glasnow has been dominant this postseason for the Dodgers with a 0.68 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 13.1 innings, holding opponents to a .181 batting average. His command remains the lone concern, with a walk rate above five per nine innings. The real challenge for Glasnow is history. Toronto has tagged him in the past, he owns a 5.82 ERA in 11 career starts against them. With the Blue Jays swinging a red-hot .305 average and .534 slugging this postseason, they could spoil the party in LA tonight.

For hit props, Ernie Clement came through for us in Game 1 and he is easily my top choice again here in Game 3 to have Over 0.5 Hits at -166 on Draftkings. Ernie had 3 hits in Toronto over games 1 & 2 and his active hitting streak is up to 8 straight games. He’s 0-4 against Glasnow and I have a hard time seeing him go 0-7 as long as he gets a few tries.

If -166 odds don’t do it for you, add in Guerrero Jr Over 0.5 Hits and you’ll end up with odds right around even money. Vladdy Jr. has hits in 7 straight games and is 5-14 against Glasnow with a home run. He’s been about as consistent as you can ask for lately with 4 multi-hit games in his last 7.

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🏈 When A Juggernaut Meets A Wounded Opponent

by Tony Reyes

The Kansas City Chiefs are 12-point favorites at home on Monday Night Football, and the market is basically SCREAMING that this is going to be a blowout.

Here's why the line is so massive.

Patrick Mahomes is on an absolute TEAR. He's thrown 11 touchdowns against just one interception over his last four games. The Chiefs have scored 28+ points in each of their last five outings, including a dominant 31-0 shutout victory in their most recent game. Kansas City's offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA.

Washington allows 8.87 yards per pass attempt – that's dead last, 32nd in the entire league. Their defense just got shredded for 44 points by the Cowboys, and now they're walking into Arrowhead without their best defensive player.

And it gets worse for Washington.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is OUT with a hamstring injury, meaning veteran Marcus Mariota is expected to start. Mariota provides a floor, but he lacks the explosive ceiling needed to keep pace with Mahomes. Defensive cornerstone Dorance Armstrong has been ruled OUT for the season, further crippling an already struggling unit.

The betting lines reflect this massive mismatch. The Chiefs are favored by 12 points at -113 on BetRivers, while the total sits at 47.5 points with the Chiefs' implied total at 30 points and Washington's at just 18.

This game has all the makings of a prime-time beatdown. The question isn't whether the Chiefs will win – it's whether they can cover that massive 12-point spread.

Why The Chiefs -12 And Over 47.5 Are Both Locks

Let me be brutally honest with you about this game.

Patrick Mahomes has a 5-9-1 record against the spread when favored by 10+ points. That's TERRIBLE. The market consistently overvalues the Chiefs in blowout spots, and they routinely win without covering.

But this game is different. And here's why the Chiefs -12 is the play.

Washington's pass defense ranks 32nd in the NFL – dead last – allowing 8.87 yards per pass attempt and 13.83 yards per reception. Marcus Mariota is starting instead of Jayden Daniels—a MASSIVE downgrade against a Chiefs defense that ranks 3rd in points allowed at 17.71 per game.

Kansas City's offense ranks 2nd in Offensive DVOA. Mahomes has thrown 11 touchdowns against one interception over his last four games. The Chiefs have scored 28+ points in five straight contests.

This isn't the typical "Chiefs as a big favorite" spot. This is a uniquely catastrophic matchup for Washington.

The Over 47.5 Is Even Safer

Here's the beauty of the Over: you don't need Washington to score much. The Chiefs can get to 30-35 points almost by themselves.

But Washington WILL score. They rank 1st in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.43, and the Chiefs' defensive tackles rank 2nd-WORST in run defense. Washington's rushing attack can sustain drives and put up 17-20 points even with Mariota.

One projection model has this game at 52 total points. Chiefs score 32. Commanders score 18. That's 50 points.

Take Chiefs -12 and Over 47.5.

Player Props That Cash When The Chiefs Roll

Player props are where the REAL money gets made on Monday Night Football. When you've got a mismatch this extreme, you stack props that correlate with the blowout narrative.

Here are the five best plays...

Patrick Mahomes Over 34.5 Passing Attempts (-101)

Mahomes is averaging 35.43 attempts per game this season. He's hit this over in 80% of his last 5, 10, and 15 games. This line should be closer to 37.

Travis Kelce Over 3.5 Receptions (-145)

Kelce averages 4.43 receptions per game and has hit this over in 80% of his last 5, 10, and 15 games. At home this season? He's averaging 4.5 receptions and hitting 75% of the time. This is the safest prop on the board.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🩹 Gruesome injury puts yet another NY Giant player on the IR. Things were finally starting to click.

🏀 Adam Silver might be busy for a little while. Congress says they would like a word.

🏒 The Mammoth are rolling. Utah’s newest star on the ice is heating up fast.

📽️ Prime Video’s NBA debut proved one thing: 4K cameras can’t fix awkward banter. 

🐯 Brian Kelly didn’t win any titles at LSU. He did win the Powerball in buyout money.

🏈 Monday Night's Hidden Touchdown Goldmine

by Tony Reyes

Here's what nobody's talking about heading into Commanders-Chiefs. The scoring opportunities are STACKED. But not where you think.

Rashee Rice at -104 is borderline theft.

He returned last week and immediately became Kansas City's most dangerous red zone weapon—dropping TWO touchdowns on the Raiders in his first game back. He saw 4 red zone targets and 2 targets inside the 5-yard line in that single performance.

That's elite usage from jump.

The Commanders rank 25th in passing yards allowed and 22nd defending wide receivers. Rice is about to feast again on national television.

But here's the sleeper nobody sees coming.

Patrick Mahomes at +295 to score a rushing touchdown. Nearly 3-to-1 odds on a quarterback who's already punched in FOUR rushing touchdowns this season—ranking 3rd among all QBs.

Mahomes has 10 red zone carries and hits the anytime TD in 57% of his games. When the Chiefs get inside the 5, he's taking it himself. The value here is absurd.

Travis Kelce sits at +113—the most trusted weapon Mahomes has near the goal line. With Rice and Marquise Brown stretching the field, defenses can't zero in on 87 anymore. Washington ranks 24th defending tight ends, and Kelce's due for positive regression after hitting just 20% in his last five games.

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