Rico Dowdle just pulled off something that no one has done since Josh Jacobs in 2022. We’ve only seen it 6 times since the 2016-2017 season (twice by Derrick Henry).

Yesterday against the Cowboys, Rico became just the 6th player in the last decade to record over 180 Rushing Yards, 50+ Receiving Yards, and score at least 1 Touchdown.

That’s following a 206-yard game last week where he averaged 9 yards per carry and scored a touchdown. He only had 28 receiving yards though…

The Panthers are undefeated at home this season, but winless on the road. They could change that next week in MetLife Stadium against the 0-6 Jets. The early line on the Panthers is +100 to win outright. As soon as player props are out, put your money on Rico.

The Jets have already allowed two running backs to rack up 130+ Rushing Yards and have given up 6 TDs to backs with over 9.5 carries. Bucky Irving and JK Dobbins are the only two that did NOT score. Everything points to another big outing for Carolina’s Rico Dowdle next Sunday.

🤖 Jaxon Just Got Smarter

Jaxon taps into advanced analytics to break down every NFL matchup with even greater precision.

Your gut < basic trends < advanced analytics.

It's a data-driven league, but you don't need a data science degree to get the analysis pro handicappers rely on.

📈 Team Stats → Efficiency metrics and situational data
👤 Player Stats → Usage and opportunity info
💰️ Value Stats → Spot advanced stat mismatches

Here is an example using DVOA to spot high value Underdog Moneyline picks.

🏈 Bills vs. Falcons: Monday Night Football Preview

This matchup might be one of the most intriguing of the week. The Bills bring one of the league’s most efficient offenses into Atlanta to face the NFL’s top-rated defense. Under the surface, there’s a deeper statistical mismatch that could decide the game.

Buffalo ranks 10th in Total DVOA, fueled by an elite offense that sits fifth in the league. Josh Allen and company currently rank third in scoring and eighth in yards per pass attempt. The problem is that those numbers might not be as dominant as they look.

The Bills have faced the easiest schedule in football through five weeks. Now they face a Falcons defense that ranks first in the NFL by nearly every advanced metric that matters. They’re number one in Defense DVOA, passing yards allowed per game, and in opponent completion percentage. They rank second in sack rate and every QB they’ve faced has been forced into hurried throws and low-efficiency drives.

The real turning point, though, might come on the ground. The Bills’ defense has been vulnerable against the run all season, ranking 30th in yards per carry allowed and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game. That weakness becomes even more glaring with linebacker Matt Milano sidelined.

The betting line has Buffalo favored by roughly four points, but Atlanta’s defensive ceiling and rushing advantage line up perfectly with Buffalo’s biggest flaws. Add in the fact that the Bills’ early-season success has come against weaker competition, and there’s real value on the home underdog.

Prediction: Falcons Cover +4.5

💰 High-Likelihood Player Props

Here are four player props that align with the expected game flow and matchup data for Bills vs. Falcons:

Bijan Robinson Over 110.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

This line feels too low given how the Falcons will attack Buffalo’s biggest weakness. Robinson is averaging 146 total yards per game and has gone over this mark in all five contests this season. Facing a Bills defense ranked 30th in yards per carry allowed, expect Bijan to be the offensive focal point from start to finish.

Tyler Allgeier Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts

Even as RB2, Allgeier’s workload has been steady, averaging nearly 11 carries per game and hitting this over in 4 of his last 5. With Atlanta likely to lean on the run game against Buffalo’s porous front, he should see 8-10 attempts as part of a balanced rushing attack designed to control tempo and keep Josh Allen off the field.

Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 Interceptions

Buffalo’s secondary remains opportunistic despite their run defense struggles. Penix has thrown at least one interception in 3 of his last 5 games, and the Bills rank third in picks forced against quarterbacks. With Atlanta expected to pound the ball, any third-and-long passing situations could easily lead to a forced throw and a turnover.

Casey Washington Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

With Darnell Mooney sidelined, Washington becomes a likely beneficiary in the short-to-intermediate passing game. He’s averaging 26 receiving yards on limited targets, and this line sits comfortably below his expected role. Even a couple of timely catches against a defense focused on stopping the run should be enough to get him past 23.5 yards.

 🌲 The Pine Line

📉 It’s one thing to lose. It’s another to lose the locker room. Dolphins aren’t showing up when it matters most.

🦁 Twelve seasons. A Big Ten title. A Playoff berth. Then a 3-3 start ended his run. 

🫎 He ended their season last spring. This time? The shootout dagger. 

⚾️ He’s done just about everything there is to do in baseball. Now, at 40, Scherzer’s trying to do it one more time.

🤯 The first Blue Jay ever to open a postseason game with a leadoff homer. And he only needed one pitch.

💎 The Nets and Suns are playing where? The city is buzzing like never before. 

🏈 MNF Best Bets: Bears at Commanders

by Tony Reyes

Monday Night Football is serving up Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels.

Young QB showdown. Primetime lights. Should be electric, right? Here’s the problem…

There’s ONE statistical mismatch that’s so absurd, it might ruin the entire game before kickoff.

Washington ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry. They’re absolutely DOMINANT on the ground, averaging 5.88 yards every single time they hand the ball off.

Chicago’s run defense? Dead last. 32nd out of 32 teams. They’re giving up 6.15 yards per carry… which means the Commanders are about to run the ball DOWN THEIR THROATS all night long.

This isn’t even a mismatch. It’s a slaughter waiting to happen. And it gets worse for Chicago…

Caleb Williams has been BRUTAL on the road. He’s 1-9 against the first-half spread in road starts, failing to cover by an average of 7.5 points per game. The Bears are also dealing with defensive injuries that make their already-terrible run defense even more vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Washington is 10-0 against the spread in their last 10 games as favorites.

The line? Commanders -4.5.

That’s it. Less than a touchdown for a team that’s going to control the clock, dominate the trenches, and expose Chicago’s biggest weakness.

The Bears had a bye week to prepare. It won’t matter. Washington covers.

Now let’s talk player props…

Because if you’re betting this game, there are some OBVIOUS fades screaming at you from the prop board.

First up: DJ Moore Under 49.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards.

Moore has gone Under this line in 75% of his games this season. He’s averaging just 47 yards per game combined, and on the road? He’s hit the Under 100% of the time.

The Bears’ offense ranks 28th in EPA per play since Week 3. They’re struggling to move the ball consistently, and Moore’s volume has been all over the place. Against a Commanders defense that ranks 10th in DVOA, he’s not suddenly going to explode.

This is free money at -110.

Next: Jayden Daniels Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns.

Here’s the thing everyone’s missing about Daniels…

Yes, he’s dynamic. Yes, he had a great Rookie season. But Washington doesn’t NEED him to throw touchdowns.

The Commanders rank 1st in rushing yards per carry and 6th in rushing touchdowns per game. When they get inside the red zone, they’re handing the ball off. Daniels has gone Under 1.5 passing TDs in 67% of his games this season, averaging just 1.33 per game.

The Bears’ defense might be terrible overall, but Washington is going to score their points on the ground. Take Daniels Under 1.5 passing TDs at -123.

The anytime touchdown props are where the real value is hiding.

Let’s start with the most obvious play: Rome Odunze Over 0.5 Touchdowns at +140.

This isn’t even close. Odunze has scored in 100% of his games this season. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.

He’s averaging 1.25 touchdowns per game, leading the entire Bears receiving corps with 5 total scores. He’s Caleb Williams’ favorite red zone target, ranking 10th among all wide receivers in red zone targets.

And the matchup? The Commanders rank 25th in the league defending wide receivers.

The Colts and Packers gave us a scare…

I know we’re approaching Halloween but those were two big scares in the Survivor pool that I was not prepared for. Over 40% of Entries had the Packers! I don’t recall seeing a team with that much of the pick distribution before. Keep an eye on the Pine Sports Blog for our Week 7 selections! That’s not the only great content you’ll find there.