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šŸˆ Most Chaotic College Football Gameday Ever

Historic CFB Chaos, Monday Night Football Props, and Tampa One Win Away

If you had plans on Saturday and missed the college football schedule, this morning’s AP Top 10 probably looks like a typo.

Five of the top seven teams lost. That has never happened in the regular season in the AP Poll era, which goes back to 1936. The closest call came on January 2, 1989, but those were bowl games. The 1 and 2 ranked teams also went down on the same regular-season day for the first time since 2012.

Georgia was the headliner. A week after Texas fell to Oklahoma, the Bulldogs became the second straight No. 1 to lose to an unranked team, this time Auburn. The No. 1 team has lost to an unranked team in back-to-back weeks only four other times: 1942, 1960, 1981 and most recently in 1990.

Georgia led 14-0 early, and unranked teams trailing No. 1 by 14 or more had lost 195 straight times. The last team to climb out of that hole was Nick Saban’s 1998 Michigan State squad, which rallied from 24-9 to beat Ohio State 28-24. The loss also ended a 93-game home winning streak for No. 1 teams against unranked opponents. The last one before this was LSU losing to Darren McFadden’s Arkansas in 2007. Bulldogs fans can take some comfort: LSU won the national title that year.

Add Alabama and Texas to the loss column, and it’s the first time all three dropped games on the same Saturday since 1996. Every SEC team in the league now has a conference loss. Meanwhile, the Big 12 now has three teams in the top 10: BYU, Texas Tech and Utah.

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šŸˆ Undefeated, Undermanned, and Still Too Much for Washington

San Francisco brings a 5-0 record into Levi’s Stadium tonight with the league’s best DVOA and best point differential. Washington ranks 28th in both, a massive gap. The Niners score 30.8 points per game while running fewer plays than all but two teams, and Washington’s defense, solid against the run, has allowed 14 passing touchdowns and a league worst 83.3% red zone touchdown rate. The sharp money says San Francisco wins, with nearly 78% of moneyline action on the Niners.

Kittle has cleared this line in every home game this season, averaging 77.3 yards at Levi’s. He’s hit the over in 60% of his games across the season, and volume should not be a concern tonight. With Samuel, Aiyuk, Kirk and Pearsall all out and Mike Evans questionable, Kittle is the most trusted pass catcher Purdy has left, already with 268 yards and four touchdowns on 21 catches.

Washington ranks 29th in passing yards allowed and 29th in receptions allowed, sits among the softest defenses against tight ends, and has given up a league worst 95 second half points.

Purdy has thrown two picks in five games, and neither came at home. His under has hit 60% of the time overall and in all three games at Levi’s. Washington doesn’t create many turnovers through the air, with just 3 interceptions on a 1.58% rate, ranking 19th. Purdy is also playing behind the league’s best pass protection, allowing sacks on just 2.11% of dropbacks, while Washington has converted only 7 of its 45 quarterback pressures into sacks.

Clean pockets lead to clean throws and Purdy shouldn’t need to take risky shots to win this game.

McLaurin has cleared 45.5 in 80% of his last 5 and 10 games, and 75% on the season. A hit rate that flat across every window is about as reliable as props get. His projection sits at 47.97, and he caught four balls for 62 yards last week.

Jayden Daniels looked fully healthy in his return, running for 103 yards and two scores, which pulls defenders toward the line and opens space underneath. San Francisco’s pass rush ranks 27th in sacks, giving Daniels time to find his top target.

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āš¾ļø One Win Away from the Fall Classic

Tampa Bay is one win from the World Series, and the numbers suggest it won’t need a Game 7.

The Rays won the final two games in Cleveland to take a 3-2 series lead, and history is firmly on their side. In the current format, teams that win Game 5 on the road and return home have closed out 21 of 28 series. In the ALCS, the team holding a 3-2 edge has advanced 16 of 23 times. Cleveland has never climbed out of that hole.

The Guardians’ real problem is the pitching staff. Parker Messick lasted just two innings Sunday, the shortest start of his career, leaving the bullpen to cover seven frames one night after it covered eight. Closer Cade Smith threw 22 pitches while trailing, and there’s no off day. Tonight is another bullpen game, with Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi tasked with bridging the middle innings. Cantillo gave up five runs at the Tropicana in July.

The bats aren’t bailing anyone out either. Cleveland has two runs in its last 12 1/3 innings against Rays starters, and Jo Adell is 2 for 18 in the series.

Then there’s Freddy Peralta. He hasn’t allowed a postseason run in 6 2/3 innings, and across five recent home starts he carries a 0.99 ERA with 26 strikeouts. The current Guardians roster is hitting .177 against him and JosĆ© RamĆ­rez is about the only one who’s solved him.

Tonight’s Pick: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline. A rested Peralta at home against a pitching staff running on fumes is the widest gap we’ve seen all series. Milwaukee could know its World Series opponent by midnight.

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