If you're reading this while wrapping last-minute gifts and dreading tomorrow's awkward family conversations, take a moment to appreciate what's coming. The NBA will stage its traditional Christmas Day showcase on Thursday: five games, 13+ hours of basketball, four of the past six champions. It's the league's most prestigious regular-season slate, and something a lot of players would prefer to skip.

LeBron James owns every significant Christmas Day record. He has 507 career points, 19 appearances, 11 wins, but has stated plainly: "I'd much rather be at home with my family." His son Bronny recently admitted the family has scheduled Christmas around Dad’s game for nearly two decades. Draymond Green is more direct, saying that while he appreciates the platform, "it f---ing sucks."

The disconnect comes down to logistics. Josh Hart notes that noon tipoffs allow players to salvage part of the holiday with family. Late games are different. The 10:30 PM Mountain Time finale between Minnesota and Denver means an overnight stay and a lost Christmas. Warriors coach Steve Kerr calls the road experience "bizarre," where players "forget that it's Christmas" until someone reminds them.

Christmas Day has produced some legitimate NBA history. Bernard King's 60 points for the Knicks in 1984 remains the holiday record. Only three other players have reached 50: Wilt Chamberlain (59 in 1961), Rick Barry (50 in 1966), and Luka Doncic (50 in 2023). Victor Wembanyama posted 42 points and 18 rebounds in his Christmas debut.

The 2025 Slate

Cavaliers at Knicks (12:00 PM ET): Cleveland (15-14) has cratered after leading the East last season despite being the league's most expensive roster. New York, the recent NBA Cup champions, has only lost twice in the past month. OG Anunoby's impact has been massive. The Knicks outscore opponents by 15.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the court versus 1.8 when he sits. Jaxon likes the Home team.

Spurs at Thunder (2:30 PM ET): A rematch of the NBA Cup semifinal where San Antonio ended Oklahoma City's 16-game winning streak. The Thunder (25-3) lead the league; the Spurs are second in the West. Wembanyama is averaging a double-double and 2.5 blocks despite a minutes restriction. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks second in scoring and is the reigning MVP.

Mavericks at Warriors (5:00 PM ET): Cooper Flagg will become the fourth-youngest player ever on a Christmas roster. The 18-year-old recently set the record for most points by a teenager in NBA history with 42. He's averaging 24 points in December. Golden State (15-15) is playing its 13th consecutive Christmas game.

Rockets at Lakers (8:00 PM ET): This will be the fifth Christmas meeting between LeBron James and Kevin Durant, who have combined for 791 holiday points. Jaxon thinks Durant will get the win this year. Houston is the league's best rebounding team, powered by Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. Luka Doncic's status is uncertain after a leg contusion.

Timberwolves at Nuggets (10:30 PM ET): This is the first Christmas meeting between teams that split playoff series in 2023 and 2024. Both have lost just twice since December 1st. Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double in yet another MVP-caliber season. Anthony Edwards is on pace for career highs in scoring and three-point percentage.

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💸 Contract Incentives on Christmas Day

Let’s be honest. This year’s Christmas football schedule looked a lot better before the season started. Instead, only one of the six teams playing on Christmas has secured a playoff spot (Denver) with only one other, Detroit, still trying to get in. However, just because teams are eliminated from playoffs does not mean players don’t have something to fight for, like money. Performance incentives become a focus for sharp bettors this time of year and we have a few key ones to track on Christmas Day.

Deebo Samuel Sr. Contract Incentives

Out of all the games on Thursday, Deebo has the most to gain. Let’s start with his receptions. Sitting on 68 so far this season, Deebo has already secured the first tier of his incentive at 60 receptions for $250,000. He’ll receive another $200,000 after 2 more catches, at the 70-mark. He’ll need a little extra help if he wants another $200,000 on top of that for catching 80.

The line on Thursday is set at 4.5 Receptions for Deebo, and plus-odds if you take the over. Even if Mariota is out, Josh Johnson went 5-9 passing after stepping in on Sunday. Johnson’s longest completions was a 20-yard gain to Deebo. Definitely one to watch here.

On the same note, Deebo recording over 40.5 Receiving Yards against the Cowboys would go a long way in helping him cash in another $250,000 check for 700 receiving yards this season. He is 61 yards away which is more than feasible with two games remaining. If you really want a Christmas miracle, he’s 161 yards from an additional $200,000 on top of that.

Lastly, and maybe the most ambitious, is his touchdown incentive. Deebo needs two more trips to the endzone for a quarter million, and dare I say three more for an extra $125,000. Samuel is +210 to record a touchdown anytime on Christmas Day, and +1800 if you think he can do it twice.

Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown (+850)

Marquise Brown enters Christmas Day's matchup against Denver with extraordinary motivation. The Chiefs receiver already cashed in on a $500,000 payday for scoring 5 Touchdowns. Hollywood now sits one touchdown away from another $250,000 contract bonus and two touchdowns from a full $1 million. While Kansas City's 6-9 record might suggest a lost season, this financial incentive could dramatically shift the game plan.

Brown ranks 10th among receivers in targets inside the 10-yard line, converting six of eight attempts for a 75% catch rate. He's particularly dangerous at home, scoring a touchdown in 43% of his games at Arrowhead compared to just 29% overall. Denver's defense ranks second in the league at preventing receiver touchdowns and seventh in overall defensive efficiency.

With anytime touchdown odds sitting at +850, implying just a 10.5% probability, the extreme payout combined with that massive contract incentive makes this one of the more compelling props of the holiday slate.

Kareem Hunt Incentive Based Props

Kareem Hunt faces Christmas Day with $150,000 in contract incentives on the line: $125,000 for hitting 50% snap share (currently 48%) and $25,000 for gaining 69 more rushing yards on the season.

The impact of the snap share bonus really applies to Hunt's rushing attempts line which sits at just 6.5 despite averaging 13.0 carries over his last five games and 10.8 over his last ten. He's cleared this number in 67% of his last 15 games and posted 13 attempts in his previous meeting with Denver. The Broncos rank fourth against running backs for this prop, but the line is set so low that the incentive-driven volume should overcome the matchup.

Hunt’s rushing+receiving yards prop offers even stronger value at a line of 25.5. Hunt averaged 52.4 total yards over his last five games and posted 62 yards against Denver earlier this season. He's hit the over in 80% of his last 15 games. While Denver ranks first against running backs in total yardage, Hunt's average production sits nearly 20 yards above this line.

One last guy to keep an eye on this Christmas is Von Miller. Lines were not available yet while writing this, but Von just recently secured a $500,000 bonus for recording 7 total sacks this season. The 36-year old veteran will make an additional $500,000 for every two additional sacks he can get in these final two weeks.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🚑️ Vikings lineup continues to shift week after week. Which rookie will we see under center this week?

🏒 Outdoor hockey in Miami sounds like a terrible idea. How is the NHL going to pull this one off?

🏀 Rozier’s lawyers say the government is stretching the law. We’ll see if it’s enough to dismiss the case.

📉 It’s more than just two games. This suspension could cost a lot more than just missed time. 

📺️ Regional sports networks keep collapsing. The latest casualty could leave fans scrambling to find games. 

🏀 NBA Christmas Day Best Bets

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Christmas Day has been a marquee holiday for the NBA ever since the league began nearly 80 years ago!  Sometimes the matchups raise eyebrows as to why they was saved for December 25th (e.g. Mavericks at Warriors) but then there are great rivalries on display and matchups that mean a lot for the regular season (e.g. Spurs at Thunder).  

Asking Jaxon

As always, Jaxon’s AI interface is a great place to start betting research before selecting the best sides and totals.  After a quick chat, here are some of Jaxon’s biggest recommendations I am also backing: 

Spurs at Thunder

The top two teams in the Western Conference will be squaring off at 2:30p.m. ET.  Fortunately for us, we already have a lot of information as to what this matchup will look like.

Not only did these two teams play last night, they also met just over a week ago.  San Antonio big man Victor Wembanyama returned from injury in that contest and still dropped 22 points and nine rebounds, leading the Spurs to an upset win 111-109.

But it’s Wembanyama’s defensive presence that Jaxon points out is what matters most.  Prior to his return, when he’s on the floor, the Spurs defense allows 106.5 points per 100 possessions.  That mark ranks second in the NBA behind Oklahoma City.  That intel should be enough to take the under 233.5 points.

Another Way to Look at SA at OKC

A defensive slugfest may also provide insight on the spread. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites, but they will also be playing their third game in four days and meeting the Spurs for the third time in two weeks.

Think of it like a playoff series: the more meetings, the lower the scoring. It's tough for any team to cover a double-digit spread when points are at a premium. Back the Spurs to cover.

Rockets at Lakers

The Rockets get the Lakers at 8:00p.m. ET and the injuries for Los Angeles are mounting.  Luka Doncic has a leg contusion and did not play Tuesday night.  He is considered day-to-day.

Also out are Rui Hachimura and Gabe Vincent.  And that news is on top of an uncertain status with Austin Reaves and Deandre Ayton.  

But, even if you think Christmas Day just means LeBron James will exhaust himself carrying the load for such a milestone game, he has lost three of his last four on December 25th.  Yes, it’s a small sample size, but too many injuries to teammates make another memorable performance even tougher.  Back the Rockets -3.

Timberwolves at Nuggets

To end the night, Minnesota squares off with Denver at 10:30p.m. ET.  As much as Nikola Jokic rightfully gets the spotlight for Denver, his teammates have been stepping up this season offensively.  Jamal Murray has shot 55.1% from three-point range this month.

Murray, Jokic and Tim Hardaway Jr. are all in the top 25 in the league in offensive rating (with Jokic leading the way at 141).  Minnesota has just one: Rudy Gobert at 135.  When Denver is making shots and showing elite ball movement, they are one tough out.  Bet on the Nuggets to cover -4.5.  

Happy Holidays!

As we wrap up another year, we want to extend our heartfelt thanks for your continued support and engagement. We’re excited to bring the sharpest tools and insights to you for another year!