The Washington Capitals were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Monday, and with that, the hockey world turned its attention to one question:

Is Alex Ovechkin done?

He is 40 years old, in the final year of his contract, and playing for a team that fell apart around him this season. Pierre-Luc Dubois missed significant time, John Carlson was traded to Anaheim, and a Washington roster that ranked second in the league in goals per game last season dropped all the way to 15th. Ovechkin still led the team in scoring with 32 goals.

The numbers show decline, but the damage is far from career-ending. His shooting percentage dropped from 18.6% to 13.3%, which explains most of the goal differential between this season and last. He is below the elite forward production, but he still outscored the average first-line winger in the NHL this season and did it at age 40, on a diminished team, without a record chase to fuel him the way the Gretzky pursuit did.

This one can’t be understated enough: Ovechkin just played all 82 games of a NHL regular season at 40 years old.

It isn’t a matter of whether or not he can do it. The real question is whether he has the appetite for another rebuild year with a young roster, or whether he walks away on his own terms having accomplished everything the sport has to offer. His decision will come this summer, and the Capitals have said they will give him the space to make it on his own terms.

He’s played 1,573 NHL games, scored 929 career goals, and added another 758 assists. Most importantly, he has a Stanley Cup. Alex won three league MVPs, one playoff MVP, and he is a 12-time All-star. He accomplished all of it in Washington.

Whatever he decides, he has earned the right to make it without pressure from anyone. Selfishly, I think the best version of next season includes Ovechkin on the ice for one more run at a Cup. The sport is better with him in it, and he is still good enough to be there.

If Ovi does decide to hang up his skates, then all I can say is thanks #8.

✨ NBA First Basket Prop Sheet

Stop guessing on first basket props. Get everything you need to identify the most likely opening scorers before tipoff:

Tip Win % – See which teams control the opening possession
1st FG Attempt % – Know who's getting the first look
1st FG Made % – Track who actually converts when it matters
Shot Locations – On Desktop, expand a player to see where they shoot

🏀 Finding Edges in Wednesday's NBA Play-In Games

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

One of the more dangerous inventions ever devised is Wikipedia.  I sat down to write about the NBA Play-In Tournament when, a few clicks later, I found myself learning that this format traces back to the Victorian Football League in 1931.

That’s the problem with rabbit holes; they’re absolutely fascinating, but not always useful.

NBA Play-In Trends

Since the Play-In Tournament began in 2021, every 7-seed has won at least one game and reached the Playoffs.  Also, only one 10-seed, the 2024-25 Miami Heat, has won two road games to advance to the Playoffs.  

Fascinating?  Sure!  Useful?  Not really.

While those trends may point to moneyline angles for the 76ers and against the Warriors, they’re no better than mere fun facts.  

How to Bet Wednesday’s Action

So, instead of getting lost in another rabbit hole, let’s do productive research, use Jaxon’s AI tools, and make some profitable bets on Wednesday’s games:

76ers -1.5 vs Magic (-110)

Philadelphia will once again be without Embiid to start a playoff run.  He’s missing Wednesday’s game because of appendicitis.  

While the Sixers will miss his ability to finish around the rim, they still have Tyrese Maxey, who’s averaging more than 28 points and six assists per game.  

What may seem counterintuitive but is also true is Philadelphia may actually improve on the offensive glass without Joel Embiid, particularly on jump shots. With Embiid often spaced or operating in isolation, missed shots tend to favor the rest of the lineup crashing the boards. Their 31% offensive-rebounding rate shows how well this group can extend the possession. 

That last stat may get overlooked by the public.  Back the Sixers to cover in a number that overcorrects for Embiid’s absence.

Paolo Banchero O23.5 Points (-114)

Without Embiid, Philadelphia is more vulnerable to dribble penetration.  It’s good news for Paolo Banchero, who ranked ninth in drives this season with 985.  That volume translates to more layups and more free throws.  

More importantly, Banchero leads the Magic with a 27.6% usage rate, or how often plays were used by a player when on the floor.

Expect Banchero to clear this number through volume alone.

Clippers -5 vs Warriors (-112)

Trading away James Harden made it seem like the Clippers were giving up on their offense.  

That assumption hasn’t aged well.

Darius Garland has been a force for Los Angeles since the beginning of February, averaging almost 20 points and more than six assists per contest.  The Clips have also relied on him a lot.  His 32.4% usage rate is one of the higher marks compared with other guards.  

Steph Curry may be back for Golden State, but Garland and Kawhi Leonard should not be slept upon.  Clippers will cover.

🌲 The Pine Line

🙈 A prominent NFL reporter just resigned. Photos that surfaced last week set off a wild chain of events.

🏀 The league’s best three-point shooters made just 2 of 22 threes last night. The season-saving moment still came from deep.

🏎️ Two teams already found a loophole in new regulations. The FIA is having to shut it down.

⚾️ Monday's Angels-Yankees game made home run history. It’s not often three-time MVPs are playing together.

🏒 An 18-year-old kid got to live out his dreams last night. Not a bad way to introduce yourself to the league.

⚾️ NRFI Bets: Three First Innings Worth Fading

One of the many ways to use Jaxon is pulling NRFI research. You can start by simply asking Jaxon to rank teams by their NRFI records, or layer in starting pitcher matchups or park factors to narrow down an overwhelming slate into two or three spots worth backing.

Seattle at San Diego NRFI (-135)

This is the strongest play on the slate. Emerson Hancock starts for Seattle against a Padres lineup that has scored in the first inning in fewer than 13% of their games this season, third lowest in baseball. San Diego is already 12-5 in favor of scoreless first innings this year.

Randy Vasquez starts for the Padres, and while his walk rate can be elevated, the Mariners have been the worst road offense in baseball this season, averaging just 2.17 runs per game away from home. Petco Park suppresses scoring at one of the highest rates in the league. Every factor in this game is pointing toward a quiet first inning. The juice is warranted.

Chicago at Philadelphia NRFI (-115)

The Cubs are 2nd in the league with a 12-5 NRFI record this season. Shota Imanaga has been one of the better swing-and-miss pitchers in the National League, and he is facing a Phillies team that has failed to score in the first inning in nearly 70% of their games this season despite having one of the more dangerous lineups in baseball.

For the Phillies, Jesus Luzardo has held the Cubs to a .188 batting average in career matchups and owns a strikeout rate above 27% against this roster. He has specifically dominated in the first inning this season, with a 4-0 NRFI record to start the year. At -115, this is the best value of the three plays.

Kansas City at Detroit NRFI (-140)

The Royals are the single most NRFI-friendly offense in baseball right now, averaging 0.06 runs scored in the first inning this season. That number is not a typo. Jack Flaherty has been solid against Kansas City's core and carries a strikeout rate above 23% in those matchups.

Seth Lugo has posted a 70% career NRFI rate and faces a Detroit lineup that sits in the bottom half of the league in first-inning production. His NRFI record against Detroit is 7-1 over his career. The data points to a quiet first inning in Detroit.

Run the same process with Jaxon on any slate and you will find similar edges from our first inning data.

⚾️ Play ball!

Every edge counts this season. Ask Jaxon about vulnerable starting pitchers, home-run heavy ballpark conditions, and player prop angles. Then head over to the MLB sheets to view additional stats and shop for the best odds.