The NBA's tank season is here, and honestly, can you blame the teams doing it?

Adam Silver stood at the All-Star Weekend podium on February 14 and said what everyone already knew: tanking is "worse this year than we've seen in recent memory." About a third of the league has essentially quit. The Washington Wizards sit at 14-39 after acquiring injured stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis, neither of whom may play a single game in a Washington uniform this season.

The Utah Jazz got slapped with a $500,000 fine for pulling Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. before the fourth quarter of games they were winning. The Indiana Pacers ate a $100K fine for sitting Pascal Siakam when doctors said he could play. The Chicago Bulls executed a deadline fire sale so aggressive they now field a roster of almost exclusively guards. An anonymous team executive texted ESPN's Bobby Marks: "How much is it going to cost? We'll pay the fine."

Here's the thing, every one of these teams is making the rational choice. The NBA's structure practically demands it. Small-market and rebuilding franchises can't attract stars in free agency. They can't trade for superstars without assets. The draft is their only path forward, and the 2026 class is a monster: AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer all project as franchise-altering talents. The worst record guarantees a top-5 pick regardless of lottery luck, and all three bottom teams share identical 14% odds at the number one selection. The OKC Thunder tanked shamelessly for years, stockpiled picks, and won the 2025 NBA Championship. The Spurs tanked into Tim Duncan and won five rings. How can you blame them?

Silver floated dramatic remedies like stripping draft picks, freezing lottery standings on a secret date mid-season, or most drastically eliminating the draft entirely. But the Wizards' strategy of acquiring injured stars to tank now and compete next year isn't against any rule. The Jazz found a loophole by playing their guys for three quarters, then benching them in the fourth. The system incentivizes creative losing, and front offices are simply optimizing within it.

For bettors, the post-All-Star-break stretch is where this gets actionable. Historical data shows that fading tanking teams after a win is the strategy to take. The theory is clean: every accidental win triggers a course correction. The market prices talent accurately but still struggles to price motivation, and right now, roughly ten teams are highly motivated to lose.

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🏀 Breaking Down Three Key Player Props

Ten games open up our Post-All-Star phase of the season and we’ve used Jaxon to help narrow down three valuable prop opportunities.

Houston Rockets vs. Charlotte Hornets

On paper, Houston's 33-20 record against Charlotte's 26-29 looks like a comfortable advantage for the Rockets. But the Hornets have quietly put together one of the hottest stretches in the league, winning nine of their last ten games. 

The Rockets' identity is built on the glass. They're the best rebounding team in the NBA, leading the league in both total and offensive rebound rate, which translates directly into second-chance opportunities. Defensively, they're stifling, particularly at rim protection and long mid-range defense. 

The Hornets counter with a completely different philosophy: launch threes, launch more threes, and hope enough of them fall. Charlotte ranks third in threes made per game and fourth in attempts, with particular sharpness from the corners. That said, they're wildly loose with the ball, 29th in turnover percentage, which is not ideal against a Houston squad that picks pockets at a top-ten rate.

Jabari Smith Jr. Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-179)

Smith Jr. has become one of the more reliable perimeter threats in the league, sitting in the 98th percentile for made threes among forwards this season. He's shooting 40.4% from the corner, and with Fred VanVleet sidelined, his usage has only grown. He's cleared 1.5 threes in nine of his last ten games, averaging 2.3 makes over that stretch. Charlotte's defense ranks 24th in threes allowed to forwards making this one of the more valuable plays on the board tonight.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors

The Celtics head west to California to take on the Warriors, featuring two of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league. The Warriors top the league with a 47% three-point frequency and Boston is right behind them at 2nd in attempts from deep. The Celtics remain a defensive powerhouse, ranking second in defensive efficiency and leading the league in ball security.

Sam Hauser Over 10.5 Points + Assists (-118)

With Tatum out this season, Hauser's minutes and usage both get a meaningful bump. He's cleared 10.5 combined points and assists in eight of his last ten games, averaging 12.2 over that span and 14.8 over his last fifteen. Hauser operates in the 100th percentile for his position in shot frequency from non-corner threes, precisely the area where Golden State's defense gives up the most ground. This line underestimates his expanded role and the Warriors’ tendencies.

Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers

If you're looking for a mismatch on paper, this is it. Denver's offense is historically efficient right now: first in offensive rating, first in effective field goal percentage, first in halfcourt efficiency, and first in assist-to-turnover ratio. They shoot nearly 40% from three as a team and rarely beat themselves with careless possessions. The Clippers, trying to claw their way back into playoff relevance at 26-28, are a step behind in nearly every major category.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-121)

The Clippers rank dead last in defending non-corner threes, allowing opponents to shoot 37.4% from that zone. Hardaway Jr. takes 54% of his shots from that exact area and converts at 40%. Over his last ten games he's averaging 3.4 made threes and has hit this over in eight of them. In two meetings against the Clippers this season specifically, he's averaged four made threes per game and cleared the line both times. With Nikola Jokic orchestrating the NBA's most efficient halfcourt offense and defenses forced to account for him constantly, Hardaway Jr. will see open looks early and often.

🌲 The Pine Line

🛻 Even NBA stars get into fender benders. It sure would suck to be the other guy involved.

🏒 Forget video review for a moment. How did the on-ice officials miss this?

🏦 Washington isn’t just on board, they’re invested. This is what it means for the future of Prediction markets.

⚽️ Norwegians have more than Olympic golds to be excited about. An unexpected Champions League result shocked everyone.

🎰 Planning on filling out a perfect March Madness bracket? You have a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance.

🏀 The NBA is Back and So Are Best Bets

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Finally, FINALLY, the NBA is back from the All-Star Break.  Before we break down the best bets on this ten-game slate, let’s see what we’ve learned about how this season is unfolding:

Offense is Still Fire

The top four seasons in NBA history in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage are also the four most recent seasons!  So far, 2025-26 features an eFG% of 54.3% (third-highest for a season) and a TS% of 58.0% (third-highest for a season).  

You can thank three pointers for these numbers.  Per 100 possessions, the league is averaging 13.3 treys, second-most in a season.  It’s not the best three-point shooting year we’ve ever seen, but we are seeing almost as many attempts beyond the arc as in any other campaign.

Thunderstorms

The Oklahoma City Thunder are sizable favorites to finish with the most regular-season wins at -370 on FanDuel with a three-game lead in the Western Conference.  However, despite the obvious juice to back the two-time defending top seed in the West, the remaining schedule is one of the more daunting in the league, and not only do the Pistons and Spurs have it easier, they also have more games to catch up with.  A sprinkle on both has value. 

Also, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a -190 favorite to repeat as MVP.  Other than Nikola Jokic at 3/1, no other player has shorter than 14/1 odds.  For perspective, there are 15 players who’ve won multiple MVP honors, compared with 22 one-time winners.  Multiyear winners are common enough.  Unless injuries sideline him for an extended period of time, I would bet on SGA to win his second.  

As for Thursday

Oklahoma City does not return to action until Friday.  However, 20 other teams are part of Thursday’s return.  With the help of Jaxon’s AI tools, here are my best bets:

Pistons +4.5 at Knicks (-115)

Detroit’s defense may be too much for the Knicks to handle.  Cade Cunningham and company have allowed the second-lowest field goal rate (44.1%) so far this season:

To go even deeper, Detroit’s defensive rating ranks second (108.3), effective field goal rate allowed is number-one (51.6%) and the steals and blocks are among the league’s best.

For a game that should have a slower pace and feature treacherous shot selection, no good team should be favored by more than one possession.  Detroit is a comfortable side to back.

Celtics at Warriors O216.5 (-110)

Since the Warriors stopped playing Jonathan Kuminga, they are averaging close to 108 points per contest.  Granted, it’s a small sample size, but Boston can reliably pull its weight too, earning the second-highest offensive rating this season (120.2):

It’s a low total because the pace of the game suggests fewer possessions, but do not count out either offense.  We should see more than enough points to reach this mark.

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