Only one team, the Dodgers, swept their Wild Card series. Only one road team won their series, the Detroit Tigers. The Yankees became the first team to lose Wild Card game 1 but win the series. All four Wild Card winners start their Division Series on the Road and that could spell trouble.

The Dodgers head to Philadelphia who won 4 of 6 regular season meetings despite being outscored by LA 28-27. Jaxon and I both like the Phillies to take Game 1 at -120 but this could be the tightest matchup of the round.

The Tigers had no business winning 2 of 3 in Cleveland after finishing the regular season with just 3 wins in their final 16 games. Even though Detroit had a winning road record this season (52%), Seattle should win game 1.

Chicago holds a 7-6 game advantage in the regular season against the Brewers. It was a 50/50 split in Milwaukee, 3-to-3, but the Cubs outscored them 33-26. The Brewers are home and rested, and should be backed for game 1, but keep in mind that the Cubs have a 46-24 record following a loss.

Lastly, the Yankees. They may be the hottest team in baseball right now, but they lost 6 of 7 in Toronto during the regular season. Take Blue Jays in game 1.

🤖 Jaxon – Your Edge Against the Books

Tired of guessing? Just ask Jaxon.

Jaxon crunches millions of data points in seconds, finds the hidden value sportsbooks don’t want you to see, and delivers it straight to you.

🎯 Player Props → Discover the sharpest matchups before kickoff
💎 Plus EV Finder → Spot the bets where the math is on your side
📰 News & Injuries → Get the updates that actually move lines
🏈 Survivor Pool Optimization → Build the path that keeps you alive longest

Whether you’re chasing player props, hunting +EV, or want instant answers to questions like “How does Josh Allen do at Home against other AFC East opponents?”, Jaxon has you covered.

It’s simple. It’s powerful. And your first questions are free.

🏈 The Best NFL Props This Week

Props betting is a game of margins. By combining Pine’s advanced tools with Jaxon’s chat interface, we can easily spot the lines that are simply off. This week, five stand out. Each one pairs a favorable line with statistical evidence strong enough to justify a confident play.

J.K. Dobbins Over 53.5 Rushing Yards

This is arguably the strongest prop on the entire board. The number feels misplaced given Dobbins’ recent surge in production and the matchup in front of him. Denver’s ground game has quietly become one of the most efficient in football, averaging 5.07 yards per carry, and Dobbins has been the primary driver of that efficiency.

The line is set at 53.5 rushing yards, but Dobbins has cleared it in 100% of his last five games. Over that stretch, he’s averaged 77.2 yards, with his totals climbing each week as his workload has grown. On the season, he’s up to 80.75 yards per game, a full 27 yards higher than the line being offered.

Philadelphia ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed to running backs. That’s the sort of defensive weakness that plays directly into Denver’s offensive strength. With both efficiency and opportunity in his corner, Dobbins looks primed to clear this line once again.

Garrett Wilson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards

Garrett Wilson draws a matchup against a Cowboys defense that has been shredded by wide receivers all season. Dallas ranks 32nd in the league in yards allowed to the position, making this the single biggest statistical mismatch on the slate.

Wilson’s production already paints the picture of a player consistently outpacing this number. He’s averaging 77.75 receiving yards per game, more than 15 yards above the line. He’s hit the over in three of four contests and continues to be a target magnet with 9.5 looks per game.

The Jets’ offense isn’t always pretty, but the distribution is predictable. Wilson is the alpha, and against a secondary that hasn’t been able to stop anyone, he should feast. Expect New York to feed him early and often to exploit the Cowboys’ biggest defensive flaw.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Need more Week 5 bets? We’ve got you covered.

⛳️ Golf prides itself on class and tradition. The Ryder Cup atmosphere crossed a line.

👏 “You should be grateful.” Tensions are boiling as the Finals tip off.

🎲 A quarter of Americans say they bet on sports last year. More are also calling it bad for society.

⚖️ The NFL tried to shut down Jon Gruden’s lawsuit. Now things could get messier.

🏆️ NFL Week 5 TD Bets

Please welcome our newest contributor, Tony, to The Pine Pulse. You can follow him and get in touch on X @TonyParlay.

Why Chase Brown at +800 is the First TD Lottery Ticket Worth Playing

This is a long shot. Let's be clear about that up front.
But at +800 odds, it's a long shot with VALUE.

Here's what makes this bet work...
Chase Brown ranks 6th in the ENTIRE NFL with 6 carries inside the 5-yard line. When the Bengals get to the goal line, the ball goes to Chase Brown. Period. He's converted one of those opportunities into a touchdown already this season, and his elite goal-line usage makes him the clear candidate if Cincinnati scores first.

But here's the lottery ticket part...

With Jake Browning at quarterback (Joe Burrow on IR), the Bengals offense has been BRUTAL. They've scored just one touchdown and 13 points across their last two games. The probability of Cincinnati scoring first against a strong Lions defense? Low.
But that's EXACTLY why you're getting +800 odds.

Here's the scenario where you cash...
If the Bengals catch a break early—a turnover, a long return, anything that gives them a short field—they're going to pound the rock with Brown. Browning isn't throwing in the red zone. The Bengals will lean on the run game to minimize risk.
And when they do? Brown gets the ball inside the 5.

The risk is real:
Brown's efficiency is terrible (2.33 yards per carry, 91st in the NFL). The Lions' defense is strong (94.56% tackle efficiency), but the Bengals' offense is struggling. But at +800 odds, you only need an 11.1% probability for this to be positive value.
The bottom line?
This is a high-risk, high-reward underdog play. If the Bengals score first, Brown is the guy.

Chase Brown First TD at +800.
Worth a small play. According to our prop sheets, you can always wager on Brown to score an anytime touchdown as well at +110 odds.

Why Garrett Wilson is an Anytime Touchdown Lock This Weekend (+145 MGM)

The Dallas Cowboys' defense is a DISASTER against wide receivers.
And Garrett Wilson is about to exploit it.

Let's start with the matchup...
The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points, yards, and touchdowns to receivers in the ENTIRE league this season. That's not hyperbole. That's DEAD LAST. Their secondary is getting torched every week. They're allowing a 73.33% completion rate, which means opposing quarterbacks are playing pitch-and-catch against this defense.

Wilson averages 9.5 targets per game (3rd in the NFL) and 6.8 receptions. He's the focal point of the Jets' passing attack, and he's going up against the worst WR matchup possible.
But here's where it gets really interesting...The Cowboys rank 32nd in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers.

Wilson is hitting the Over on his 62.5 receiving yards line in 75% of his games this season, averaging 77.8 yards per game. Translation? He's going to EAT against this secondary.

And when Wilson gets volume, touchdowns follow.
The Cowboys allow 33.0 points per game (31st in the league) and give up the most touchdowns to receivers. They're ranked last in yards allowed per game at 424.0. This defense can't stop ANYONE through the air.

Wilson doesn't have elite red zone usage (just 1 target inside the 5-yard line this season), but the scoring opportunities will come when you get 9+ targets against the worst secondary in football.

The bottom line?
You've got a target monster facing a defense that ranks dead last against wide receivers in every meaningful category.The Cowboys can't cover. Wilson gets fed. The math is simple.

Garrett Wilson Anytime TD is the play.

Join the conversation!

Let us know if you’re tailing or who you think is due to find the endzone this weekend! Tag us on X @PineSports_AI or join the Discord server so you don’t miss out!