- The Pine Pulse
- Posts
- š Elite Arms, Elite Stakes, Edges Everywhere
š Elite Arms, Elite Stakes, Edges Everywhere
Dodgers v Jays, Vikings Value, and red-hot Red Wings
The 2025 World Series between the Dodgers and Blue Jays is a classic contrast of strengths. Toronto enters with the better regular-season record (94-68) and home-field advantage, yet the market still lists them as the underdog. The reason is simple: the Dodgersā pitching staff is viewed as the most dominant unit in baseball, and in October, pitching wins.
Los Angeles posted a 3.84 team ERA with 60 quality starts, compared to Torontoās 4.21 ERA and 58 quality starts. The Blue Jays, however, hit .267 as a team, the highest of any playoff club. The Dodgers finished at .253.
Torontoās contact-driven approach led them to the lowest strikeout rate in baseball but will have their work cut out for them. Los Angeles has its elite rotation of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani who have all combined for one of the most efficient postseason runs in recent memory.
Snellās 0.86 ERA in the playoffs highlights just how difficult this staff is to crack, and with deep outings from their starters, the Dodgers have managed to hide their bullpenās inconsistency.
For Toronto, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are capable of keeping games close. With Bo Bichette returning to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, the Blue Jays have the depth to create traffic on the bases.
This series will come down to whether Torontoās lineup can make elite pitching blink first or if the Dodgersā arms once again prove that dominance on the mound trumps every other edge.
Series Prediction: LA Dodgers -1.5 Games (-115)
Series Prop: Shohei Ohtani 3+ Home Runs (+150)
š Think You Know Ball?
Prove It in the Props Battle.
$350 in prizes already claimed, and weāre not even half way done.
Each week, the community locks in their picks. Get yours right and youāre in the running for $50 cash. Stack wins all season and the grand prize is a full year of Jaxon Premium ($999 value).
ā
Weekly $50 prizes
ā
Season-long leaderboard
ā
100% free to enter
Itās bragging rights. Itās bankroll building. Itās all happening in NFL-Chat inside the Pine Sports Discord.
š Similar Rankings, Totally Different Teams
The Vikings and Chargers sit side by side in overall efficiency, ranking 22nd and 23rd in Total DVOA, but how they reach those numbers couldnāt be more different.
Minnesotaās defensive profile gives them a clear edge in areas that often decide close games. They rank 12th in defensive DVOA and 10th in special teams, compared to the Chargersā 22nd and 26th marks in those categories. Los Angeles holds the advantage on offense, ranking 18th in offensive DVOA versus Minnesotaās 27th.
The Chargers rely on their offense to carry them, while the Vikings lean on their defense and special teams to stay competitive.
The biggest story here is pressure. The Vikings have quietly developed one of the leagueās most effective pass rushes, ranking fifth in quarterback pressure rate and sixth in sack rate. That spells trouble for a Chargers team missing multiple starters on the offensive line.
The Vikings' offense is the clear weak link. Carson Wentz will start again, and while he has shown flashes, his decision-making remains a problem. The Chargers rank fourth in interception rate, so forcing Wentz into pressure situations could swing the game quickly.
Minnesotaās path to stability lies on the ground. Los Angeles ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed and 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed, creating a rare āplus matchupā for a Vikings rushing attack that still hasnāt found itās rhythm.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings Cover +3.5
š TNF Player Props to Target
Based on that breakdown, we need to target props that capitalize on the high volume situation expected for the Vikings. For starters, the rushing advantage.
Carson Wentz Over 10.5 Rushing Yards
This line takes direct aim at the Chargersā weakest defensive area. Los Angeles ranks 31st in the league against opposing quarterback rushing yards, a clear signal that mobile QBs can find success on the ground.
Wentz has been more active as a runner than the market gives him credit for, averaging 14.3 rushing yards per game and clearing this line in three of his four starts.
Given the Chargersā defensive struggles against the run (5.1 yards allowed per carry) and ongoing health issues in the front seven, Wentz should find easy opportunities to pick up yards on scrambles or designed boots.
Jordan Addison Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
When the rushing game is good, the passing game opens up. Even for a ānormalā game this number looks mispriced considering both volume and matchup. The Chargersā defense ranks 19th in receptions allowed to wide receivers and continues to give up production to top targets.
Addison has averaged 6.0 receptions per game this season and has cleared the 4.5 mark in two of his three starts. Over his last 10 games, heās averaging 5.7 catches, showing consistent involvement regardless of game script.
With Wentz under center, expect a focus on quick throws and reliable targets, and Addison fits that profile perfectly. The Chargersā secondary has been one of the softest units in the league (22nd in Defensive DVOA), and Minnesotaās offensive approach should lean heavily on short, timing-based routes.
At even money, this prop offers one of the best value spots on the Thursday slate.
š² The Pine Line
š Both Survivor entries are still alive and thatās no small feat. Week 8 lines up two strong chances to keep it that way.
š From raising the banner to a 2OT thriller. Opening Night couldnāt have been any better.
ā½ļø Five goals. Five assists. Three games. Heās running out of room on the trophy shelf.
š„ Youngest player to post 75+ Yards in seven straight to start a season. Heās putting up numbers never seen in Seattle.
šŖ Ever wondered what happens when a NBA coaching staff takes on a media team? Spoiler: itās exactly what you might expect.
š Atlantic Division Rivals Face Off
The Red Wings are one of the hottest teams in hockey right now, riding a five-game win streak that includes wins over the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Panthers, and Oilers.
The story for Detroit has been balance and execution. Captain Dylan Larkin is driving the offense with 11 points through six games, while the teamās penalty kill has been perfect during the streak, 10-for-10. Goaltending in Detroit has also been sharp, stabilizing a defense that struggled to close games last year.
Buffalo is coming off a 4-2 loss to Montreal and has been inconsistent in its own end. The Sabres have flashed offensive potential, scoring 11 goals over a two-game stretch over the weekend, but injuries on the blue line remain an issue. Defenseman Jacob Bryson will miss this one, and the unit has shown lapses when pressured in transition.
Detroit, despite being the underdog on the road, holds several quiet advantages. The Red Wings are converting 29.4% of their power plays, while Buffalo sits near league average. Sharp money has treated this as a near coin flip, but the market has been slow to adjust to Detroitās current form.
At plus money, the value leans clearly toward the hotter team.
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings Moneyline (+100)
Alex DeBrincat Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-178)
DeBrincat is firing the puck with volume and confidence. Heās topped this line in four of his last five games and averages just over three shots per night.
The Sabresā defense ranks 24th against opposing wingers in shot suppression, and their penalty kill has left open lanes for perimeter shooters. DeBrincatās usage rate on the top unit and his quick-release style make the over 2.5 an attractive number, especially with Detroit generating over 33 shots per game during their current streak.
Dylan Larkin Over 0.5 Points (-230)
Larkin has been automatic to start the year, clearing this mark in all five of Detroitās wins while averaging two points per game. Heās thriving as the focal point of a top line thatās dictating pace and generating high-danger chances nearly every shift.
Buffalo ranks 27th in defensive efficiency versus centers, and Larkin has produced points in three of his last four games against the Sabres. His ice time and role on both the top line and power play make this one of the safest prop plays on the board.
While -230 probably isnāt worth firing on itās own, consider pairing Larkin with Red Wings to cover +1.5 or Alex DeBrincat 2+ SOG. Either will get you odds much closer to even money.
Ready for NBA content?
Weāre already sharing NBA insights on our Instagram and on X @PineSports_AI. You can get more NBA content and daily game previews on our blog every day. Let us know on social or in our free Discord what kind of NBA insights you want to see from Jaxon this season.





