Comebacks don’t happen just by luck. They’re built from equal parts mental control and tactical execution. Coaches calling the right plays at the perfect time. Players staying calm when everything collapses. Pressure makes diamonds after all.

That’s exactly what happened in Arizona on Sunday. Down 21-6 entering the fourth, Tennessee looked buried. Then Cardinals RB Emari Demercado dropped the ball before the goal line, erasing a sure touchdown. The Titans scored on each of their 3 final drives following the fumble to win 22-21.

For bettors, that’s where the edge lives. When a team trails by multiple scores, live odds often overreact, pricing the comeback as nearly impossible. The LA Dodgers had over 40 comeback wins this season, but you could have taken them at a long +450 before their multi-run comeback against the Phillies on Saturday night.

In every comeback, there’s a moment when the crowd feels it. The players sense it. And if you’re watching closely, the odds will tell you exactly when to strike. Pay attention next weekend to any home favorites that give up the first score…you might just find some extra value.

🤖 Jaxon – Your Edge Against the Books

Still betting on gut feelings? Stop guessing. Start betting smarter.

Jaxon breaks down millions of data points in seconds to uncover the edges sportsbooks miss. All you have to do is ask.

🎯 Player Props → Find the matchups that actually matter
💎 Plus EV Finder → Target the bets where math gives you an edge
📰 News & Injuries → React before the books adjust
🏈 Advanced Metrics → Have the data that helps you win

From player props to +EV angles, Jaxon turns data into confidence.
Your first questions are free so try it before kickoff!

🏈 Monday Night Football Chiefs vs. Jags

Prime-time. Jacksonville. A 3-1 Jaguars team hosting a 2-2 Chiefs squad that's trying to find its rhythm.

This one has all the makings of a shootout.

Kansas City comes in favored, but the spread is tight, the total is intriguing, and the player props are loaded with value. We're breaking down every angle—from the safest moneyline play to the contrarian prop that could pay big.

Let's dive into Monday Night Football.

The Spread: Chiefs -3.5 or Jaguars +4.5?

Let's start with the spread...

The market has Kansas City favored by 3.5 points, but you can find better value depending on which side you like.

Chiefs -3.0 at -118 on FanDuel gets you off that key number of 3.5. If Kansas City wins by exactly three, you push instead of losing.

Jaguars +4.5 at -130 on ESPN BET gives you an extra half-point of cushion if you think Jacksonville keeps this close at home.

The matchup sets up for offense.

Both teams have identical efficiency metrics—5.7 yards per play on offense and 5.5 yards per play allowed on defense. That balance suggests we're looking at a competitive, back-and-forth game.

Expert projections have this landing around 24-21, Chiefs.

Injury concerns are minimal but worth watching.

For Kansas City, cornerback Kristian Fulton and defensive lineman Omarr Norman-Lott are questionable. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy's status has been a storyline all week.

For Jacksonville, offensive lineman Wyatt Milum and defensive end Travon Walker are questionable. Neither appears to be a game-changer for the starting units.

The Chiefs' passing game should operate smoothly.

Patrick Mahomes is projected for 6.61 yards per attempt against a Jacksonville defense that's only generating a 17.31% pressure rate. That's not enough heat to disrupt Mahomes' rhythm.

The bottom line?

This is a tight spread for a reason. Jacksonville is 3-1 at home. Kansas City is trying to get back on track.

Expect points. Expect drama. Expect a game that comes down to the final possession.

Monday Night Football at its finest.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🚨 A strange night in Indianapolis for this former NFL QB. So strange that police had to get involved.

👑 Team title? Secured. The fight that really matters is just getting started.

😵 Fumbles reversed, flags picked up, chaos everywhere. Broncos-Eagles turned into an officiating circus.

🏈 The new AP Top 25 dropped. Two preseason powerhouses just vanished. 

🏒 Vegas? Dallas? Colorado? The race for the Stanley Cup starts tomorrow!

Monday Night Touchdown Plays

The Jaguars' offense has been built on balance this season, but the real strength is clear: the run game. Through four games, Jacksonville is averaging 5.01 yards per carry, one of the better marks in the league. That efficiency on the ground has carried their scoring, even while the passing attack struggles to find explosive plays (just 5.87 yards per pass attempt).

Travis Etienne Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+115)

The Jags are putting up 24 points per game, which is respectable, but third-down conversions have been an issue at 36.5%. Drives are stalling before they can capitalize. When the offense finds rhythm, it’s usually because Travis Etienne Jr. is involved.

Etienne has been the engine behind Jacksonville’s success. He’s found the end zone in three of four games this season (75%) and he ranks 11th in the league with 11 red zone carries. That kind of usage makes him the Jaguars’ go-to option when they’re close to scoring.

Chiefs’ defense ranks 22nd against running backs, and Jacksonville’s ground efficiency lines up perfectly to exploit that.

Try this prompt with Jaxon…

One of my favorite methods of analyzing the Sunday slates lately has been simple but effective. I have been going through each game, one by one, and asking this question. Then I’ll follow it up asking for the best player props based on that analysis. That’s how I got this +2000 winner and last week’s newsletter sweep!

Try it yourself!