The calendar flips to 2026 with half the league chasing a championship and the other half quietly updating draft boards. New Year's resolutions only matter with an actual plan behind them, and the stats from this season reveal exactly where each team's self-improvement needs to start.

Cincinnati Bengals: Stop the Bleeding on Defense

The Bengals have learned you can't outscore every problem. Their offense ranks third in passing touchdowns with 31 scores and converts third downs at a 41.97% clip. That sounds great until you see a defense allowing 422.8 yards per game, dead last in the NFL. They surrender 156 rushing yards per contest, also worst in the league, while opponents score 30.53 points per game against them.

It doesn't matter how many points Joe Burrow puts up if the defense can't get stops. Key defenders like Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai are heading toward free agency, and the secondary allows a 66.53% completion rate. With a projected top ten pick and cap space available, Cincinnati must find impact defenders at all three levels.

Cleveland Browns: Build an Actual O-Line

The Browns have watched their quarterback run for his life all season. Their line ranks 25th in sacks allowed with 43, posting an 8.38% sack rate. The symptoms are clear. Cleveland's offense ranks last in yards per play at 4.98 and scores just 16.4 points per game, 31st in the NFL. The run game offers no relief at 3.91 yards per carry.

Veterans Joel Bitonio and Jack Conklin are on expiring contracts, forcing a big decision for the franchise. Whether Cleveland keeps their current quarterback or drafts a new one, nobody succeeds leading the league in pressured dropbacks.

Kansas City Chiefs: Discover a Running Game

Kansas City's defense ranks fifth in points allowed, but the offense ranks 22nd in rushing at 109.73 yards per game with a 4.24 yards per carry average. The committee approach has produced zero 1,000 yard rushers and just 8 rushing touchdowns, ranking 27th.

With Mahomes' health now the storyline, Andy Reid needs a true backfield weapon. A dynamic dual threat running back who can gash defenses and catch passes would fundamentally alter how opponents gameplan. The current one-dimensional approach has made them too predictable, especially in short yardage where they rank 13th in third down conversions.

New York Jets: End Two Decades of QB Dysfunction

The Jets rank dead last in passing yards at 196.6 per game and 31st in passing touchdowns with 14 scores. What's frustrating is the ecosystem is ready. Young tackles Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou provide protection. Garrett Wilson is a star receiver. Mason Taylor shows tight end promise. Special teams ranks first in efficiency. Everything is in place except the position that matters most.

Despite having pieces, the offense ranks 30th in total efficiency at negative 24.6%. The resolution for 2026 is stopping the flyers on unproven veterans or projects like Brady Cook and acquiring a franchise cornerstone. With draft capital from midseason trades, the Jets can move up the board. After two decades of dysfunction, actually solve the problem.

Dallas Cowboys: Make the Defense Match the Offense

The Cowboys present a confusing profile. Their pass rush generates the second most quarterback hits with 54 and pressures at the fifth best rate at 29.6%. Yet they allow more passing yards than anyone at 287.93 per game and surrender 33 passing touchdowns, also worst in the league.

Dallas scores 28.27 points per game, fifth in the NFL, and leads the league in passing yards at 297.0 per contest. But they allow 30.27 points per game and post a defensive efficiency rating of 20.8%, dead last. They generate pressure but can't cover.

The Christmas Day game against Washington's backup illustrated the problem perfectly. Without Trevon Diggs providing consistent coverage, the secondary becomes vulnerable. The resolution is adding a true edge rusher to pair with Quinnen Williams while finding secondary depth that can finish plays.

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💸 Incentive Based Player Props

When contract bonuses align with favorable matchups and guaranteed usage, the math becomes simple. Follow the money, trust the volume, and capitalize on props until they hit those bonus thresholds.

Rico Dowdle's Million Dollar Game

Rico Dowdle needs exactly 70 scrimmage yards to unlock a million dollars in incentive money. He's also sitting one touchdown away from an additional $250,000 bonus. The Panthers running back has accumulated 1,280 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns through 15 games, and the coaching staff knows exactly what's at stake heading into their matchup with Seattle.

Rico Dowdle Over 66.5 rushing+receiving yards (-114)

The numbers back up a heavy Dowdle workload this week. He's averaging 85.33 scrimmage yards per game this season, with that figure jumping to 107.14 yards when playing on the road. Over his last ten games he's been even better, posting 94.3 scrimmage yards per contest. Seattle's defense ranks eighth in the league at defending this exact rushing and receiving yards combination prop, which creates a perfect chance for Dowdle to cash his bonus check.

Looking at his recent consistency, Dowdle has cleared 66.5 scrimmage yards in 60% of his last five games and last ten outings. The motivation factor combined with the usage profile and defensive matchup makes this one of the week's strongest plays.

Keenan Allen has $1 Million on the Table

The Chargers veteran receiver has a massive payday within reach against Houston. Allen needs exactly 7 receptions to hit 80 catches on the season, which triggers a $750,000 bonus. He's also just 26 receiving yards away from an additional $250,000 for reaching 750 yards. That's a combined $1 million in incentives that the Chargers organization will certainly want to help their reliable target achieve.

Keenan Allen Over 3.5 Receptions (-105)

Allen has been averaging 4.87 receptions per game while ranking 17th at the position. His 22% target share ranks 17th among receivers. Over his last five games he's averaged 4.2 receptions on 6.2 targets per contest, with a 67.7% catch rate that demonstrates his reliable hands.

The betting market has set his reception line at just 3.5 catches, which is significantly below both his season average and the 7 he needs for the bonus. Allen has cleared this 3.5 threshold in 80% of his games this season and 80% of his last five contests. He recorded at least 4 receptions in four of his last five outings, and in his most recent game against Dallas he went a perfect 5 for 5 on his targets.

Houston presents a tough matchup on paper, ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency and 4th in defending the wide receiver position. They allow just a 58.6% completion rate, which ranks 2nd in the league. However, Allen thrives in the short to intermediate passing game where he serves as Justin Herbert's primary chain mover.

While the 7 catch bonus is a tall order against this Houston secondary, the 3.5 line is extremely reachable based on his usage patterns and Herbert's tendency to lean on his veteran safety valve. I would even consider laddering this up to 5 or 6 receptions.

Tony Pollard's $500k Incentive

The Titans running back enters the weekend with nearly $500,000 in reachable bonuses. Pollard needs 151 rushing yards to trigger a $250,000 payment for reaching 1,100 yards on the season, and he's sitting just 2 rushing touchdowns away from a $200,000 bonus for hitting 7 scores. The financial motivation couldn't be clearer, and the Saints defense provides an exploitable matchup to help him get there.

Tony Pollard Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Pollard has been absolutely rolling lately with three consecutive 100 yard games. His efficiency has spiked dramatically during this stretch, jumping to 6.1 yards per carry over the last three weeks compared to his 4.52 season average. Over his last five games he's averaging 89.4 rushing yards per contest, which sits nearly 30 yards above the current market line of 61.5 yards.

New Orleans ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game at 126.2 yards, and they grade out as the 26th ranked defense against running backs for this specific prop. The Saints have surrendered 12 rushing touchdowns this season, placing them right in the middle of the pack. With Pollard carrying the ball 210 times this season and logging 18 red zone opportunities, he's clearly the primary option when Tennessee gets into scoring position.

The rushing yards line of 61.5 looks soft given his recent form and the $250,000 carrot dangling in front of him. Pollard has cleared this number in 60% of his last five games, and his usage surge suggests he could blow past this total by a significant margin. Expect the Titans to feed him early and often as they try to help their lead back secure that 1,100 yard milestone.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Not a good sign when even your backup is playing through an injury. The good news is they have time to heal before playoffs. 

🏒 The future of hockey. These guys will their names in headlines before long.

🏀 One team has the best record in basketball. The other can’t stop beating them. 

🏏 Test Cricket is alive and well. New all-time record set on Boxing Day.

🏈 Vegas benched him for his “best interest” in Week 17. Crosby wasn’t too happy about it.

🏈 Eagles @ Bills Week 17 Best Bets

by Ed Egros - Follow on X @EdWithSports

Motivation in the NFL is a tricky factor once playoff seeding comes into play. Some teams still have everything to fight for, while others are stuck in no-man's-land—already locked into their position but unable to improve it.  And some do not even want to, say, pay the potential price of going from the 3-seed to the 2-seed.

That dynamic makes Week 17 fascinating. It's not quite the final week where teams rest their starters, but it does raise questions about how aggressively teams will play when balancing playoff preparation against injury risk.

Eagles at Bills: A Motivation Mismatch?

Take the defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles.  They have already clinched the division but cannot get the first-round bye.  So, how might they play their penultimate regular-season game against the Bills, who are still in contention for a division crown and much more? 

Will the Eagles Rest Their Stars?

Last season offers a precedent.  The Eagles clinched in Week 17 and proceeded to rest many of their stars for the season finale when they could not clinch the top seed in the conference.  But again, the playoffs are two weeks away, and there’s enough reason to think we’ll see Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and company play at a high level.  

Three Props to Consider

With the help of Jaxon’s consistency prop sheets, here are a few bets that stand out:

Saquon Barkley O12.5 Receiving Yards

He may not have the reputation of a receiving running back.  After all, Barkley only gains 18.2 receiving yards per contest.  But this modest total can be cleared with a couple of screen passes, and the Eagles may want to showcase this dimension of their offense ahead of the playoffs to keep future opponents guessing.

Additionally, Hurts has been airing it out more frequently in recent weeks, creating more opportunities for everyone in the passing game, including Barkley.

Jalen Hurts O26.5 Pass Attempts

Jaxon brought up some important insights: Buffalo’s defense could give up a lot of pass plays.  Not only might Bills quarterback Josh Allen have a big day and force Philadelphia to keep up offensively, but Hurts’ passing efficiency may be something he and the rest of the offense may want to have shored up before the playoffs.  

Also, if there is the belief the Bills do not want Barkley and the run game to beat them because of their dominance over the last couple of seasons, then Hurts will be relied upon to pass more and perhaps win the game that way.  

James Cook O104.5 Passing + Receiving Yards

Don't overlook the Bills' offensive weapon. Cook has been extremely efficient as a receiver.  He is averaging eight yards per target!  Cook also ranks in the 90th percentile for tackle efficiency among running backs, so if he gets some open space after the catch, watch out!  

Even if the Bills lean on the ground game, Cook can reach this total. He's hit the over in more than 70% of his games this season, and as home favorites against an Eagles run defense that's been susceptible all year, Cook should find multiple paths to 105 yards.

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