If you love football because of its chaos, Week 9 was for you. If you love it because of its math, it was even better. Sunday’s slate was a statistical fever dream.

The Seahawks jumped out to a 28–0 lead over Washington on the back of Sam Darnold’s 16-for-16 first half, featuring 282 yards and four touchdowns. That line put him in elite company: only Tom Brady (2007) had ever opened a game with a touchdown on each of his team’s first four possessions while maintaining a 100% completion rate on those drives.

Darnold ended the night with 325 passing yards, four touchdowns, just three incompletions, and zero sacks taken. That’s a statistical combination reached by only one other quarterback in the Super Bowl era: Johnny Unitas in 1967.

For Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy came back from injury and led the Vikings to a stunning upset in Detroit. McCarthy became just the third first-round rookie QB since 1970 to win two road divisional games within his first three starts.

He’s also the first player in NFL history to record at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in two of his first three career games. Both times, Week 1 at Chicago and Week 9 at Detroit, the Vikings won by the identical score of 27–24. Wildly, J.J.’s passing stats were even identical: 143 yards, 2 Touchdowns, 1 Interception.

Joe Flacco isn’t supposed to be breaking records anymore. Yet in Cincinnati’s 47–42 shootout loss to the Bears, he threw for 470 yards and four touchdowns, setting a new NFL mark for the most passing yards in a game by a quarterback aged 40 or older.

Across the league, Christian McCaffrey passed Jim Brown and Priest Holmes for the most career games with at least 100 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 50 receiving yards, and one receiving TD. Cam Little drilled a 68-yard field goal as time expired in the first half. That’s now the longest in NFL history, eclipsing Justin Tucker’s 66-yarder from 2021. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 129-yard day against Washington pushed him to 948 yards through eight games, the most ever by a player under 25 in that span.

Week 9 wasn’t just another chapter in the 2025 season. It was one for the record books.

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🏈 Raiders vs Broncos on TNF

Thursday nights can be unpredictable, but the data says this one shouldn’t be close.

Denver enters at 7–2, Las Vegas at 2–6, and the advanced metrics make the gap look even wider. The Broncos rank 8th in Total DVOA (14.1%), while the Raiders sit 27th (-21.9%). That’s two teams living in different statistical worlds.

Denver’s defense has been the backbone of their success. They’re 3rd in Defensive DVOA (-15.5%), 1st in Sack Rate (12.12%), and no team in the NFL is better on third down. Opponents convert just 28.2% of attempts. They’re also outscoring opponents by +59 points, a top-eight mark league-wide.

It’s been ugly for the Raiders. They’ve been outscored by 78 points, and their offense ranks 30th in DVOA, 29th in scoring (16.5 PPG), and 1st in Interception Rate (4.53%). It’s a nightmare matchup against a Denver defense that pressures quarterbacks on 34% of dropbacks and allows the 2nd-lowest completion rate (56.9%) in the league.

Home teams already hold an edge on Thursdays, but this one’s magnified. Las Vegas is coming off a grueling overtime loss to Jacksonville, meaning even less time to rest and prepare for the NFL’s top pass rush. Denver gets to sleep in their own beds and ride the momentum of a six-game win streak.

Everything here lines up cleanly: the numbers, the fatigue, the matchup. The Broncos’ defense should dominate, the run game will grind out long drives, and the Raiders’ turnover issues will put this one out of reach early.

Prediction: Broncos -8.5

🎯 Top 3 Player Props for TNF

J.K. Dobbins Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-113 on DraftKings)

If Denver’s plan is to lean on the ground game then Dobbins is the engine. The Broncos rank 7th in rushing yards per game (133.6) and 5th in yards per carry (4.95), and Dobbins has been their steady producer.
He’s averaging 77.2 yards per game, topping this number in six of nine contests, and he’s even better at home: 89 yards per game with a 75% hit rate.

The Raiders defense ranks 18th against the run, and with Denver likely controlling the script, Dobbins should see 18-plus carries. More possessions from short Raider drives and turnovers only boost his volume. Everything points toward another strong outing on the ground.

Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions (-173 DK)

This pick ties directly into the “Raiders’ turnover issues” theme, or at least Denver’s ability to create them. Smith has thrown 8 interceptions in starts this season, averaging 1.14 per game, and he’s been even worse over his last five.

Now he faces the NFL’s most ferocious pass rush: Denver ranks 1st in Sack Rate (12.12%), 1st in QB Hit Rate (11.78%), and 1st in Pressure Rate (34%). Smith has already been sacked 21 times, and that combination of heat and poor decision-making is exactly how turnovers happen. It’s not that unlikely for one forced throw to turn into six points the other way.

Courtland Sutton Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)

Even in a run-heavy script, the Broncos will take their shots — and Sutton remains the clear top option. He’s averaging 62.9 yards per game, exceeding this mark in two-thirds of his outings, and he’s been automatic at home (74 yards per game, 4-for-4 on overs).

Las Vegas ranks 23rd in coverage against WRs, and Sutton’s physicality gives him the matchup edge on the outside. Expect Denver to open the field early with a few play-action shots before leaning back on Dobbins and the ground game to close it out.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Less than 10% remain and two teams stand out as the safest paths to survive Week 10. One might surprise you.

✈️ The NFL just hit shuffle. We got a midseason makeover nobody saw coming.

🥊 Miami will have to wait for their Main Event. The biggest boxing spectacle of the fall just got knocked out. 

⛳️ Remember when LIV was all about being different? It’s sounding a lot more like the tour it rebelled against.

🤕 Dan Quinn owned it. It’s a moment he clearly wishes he could take back.

🚨 Touchdown Props: Raiders vs Broncos

The Broncos are heavy favorites for a reason. The advanced metrics, the short-week edge, and their balanced offense all point toward sustained red-zone pressure on a tired Raiders defense.

Two Denver playmakers stand out as high-value touchdown bets heading into Thursday night.

RJ Harvey Anytime Touchdown (+225 DraftKings)

RJ Harvey might not get the volume of J.K. Dobbins, but when Denver gets inside the 10-yard line, he becomes the most dangerous weapon on the field. At +225, the value is outstanding given how consistently he’s used near the goal line and how well he fits Denver’s offensive scheme.

Harvey leads all running backs with four receiving touchdowns this season, including two inside the five-yard line. He’s averaging 0.67 touchdowns per game and has scored in three of his last five outings.

Last week against Houston, he caught five passes for 51 yards and a touchdown, continuing his emergence as a dual-threat safety valve for Bo Nix. The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL against running backs, struggling to defend both the run and short passing game, and that’s exactly where Harvey thrives.

Harvey’s combination of red-zone reliability, short-yardage versatility, and matchup advantage makes him one of Thursday night’s most valuable touchdown plays.

Troy Franklin Anytime Touchdown (+180 Caesars)

If Harvey is Denver’s short-yardage hammer, Troy Franklin is their aerial ace. Franklin’s red-zone role is already bordering on elite. He ranks second among all wide receivers in total red-zone targets this season with fifteen and second in targets inside the five-yard line with seven. That kind of usage is usually reserved for All-Pro receivers.

Franklin has matched Courtland Sutton with four receiving touchdowns on the year, but his red-zone volume is significantly higher. He’s averaging 0.44 touchdowns per game and has hit this prop in half of Denver’s home contests. The Raiders’ defense, ranked 23rd against wide receivers, continues to struggle with coverage in the intermediate zones.

While Sutton remains the steady veteran, Franklin’s red-zone dominance and growing role in high-leverage moments make him a compelling anytime touchdown option in a game script built around sustained offensive success.

🏒 Wednesday Night Hockey: Blues vs Capitals

The case for a St. Louis victory rests on two pillars: the spark provided by Robert Thomas’s return and the Capitals’ mounting personnel issues.

The St. Louis Blues (4-7-2) finally broke through with a 3–2 win over Edmonton, ending a seven-game winless streak. The energy in the locker room is reportedly “upbeat,” and it’s easy to see why with their No. 1 center, Robert Thomas, returning with a goal and an assist. Rookie Dalibor Dvorský added his first NHL goal, adding some optimism into a team that needed it.

Robert Thomas’s return to the lineup immediately changed the complexion of the Blues’ offense. In his first game back, he produced 2 points and fired 4 shots on goal. Compared to his season averages of 0.89 points and 1.33 shots on goal, that’s more than double the offensive impact.

Washington’s Depth Problem

On the other side, the Washington Capitals (6-5-1) have flipped the script. After starting 6-2-0, they’ve stumbled into a 0-3-1 skid, with head coach Spencer Carbery admitting the team is “still trying to find its identity.”

The problem is the offense. Washington sits near the bottom of the league in total goals (31) and power-play efficiency (15%), while shooting just 8.91% overall.

Pierre-Luc Dubois is now on injured reserve, stripping away a key offensive weapon down the middle. Rasmus Sandin is also sidelined, hurting both their defensive structure and power play production, and Ivan Miroshnichenko is out as well.

St. Louis Blues Moneyline (+134 FanDuel)

Washington may be favored at -155, but they are leaning heavily on aging veterans and fourth-liners to fill key roles. St. Louis holds the momentum, health, and offensive rhythm. At plus money, this is the side with clear value.

Jordan Kyrou Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-152 FanDuel)

It isn’t just Thomas fueling this surge. Jordan Kyrou is heating up, especially when it comes to getting pucks on net. He’s gone over his 2.5 shots on goal line in four of his last five games (80%), averaging 2.8 shots during that stretch — well above his season mark of 2.31. The Capitals’ defense ranks 15th versus his position, a neutral matchup that still favors a volume shooter when his team controls possession.

With Thomas back to create zone time and distribute the puck, Kyrou’s attempts should stay elevated. It’s a textbook setup for another strong shot total and a continuation of his hot streak.

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