Remember Philip Rivers? The guy who threw footballs like he was shot-putting a medicine ball, started 240 consecutive regular season games, and somehow never made it to a Super Bowl? Well, he’s throwing touchdown passes in the NFL again.

Let's be real: Rivers was really good at football. Historically good. When he hung up his cleats after the ‘20-’21 season, he was 5th all-time in both passing yards (63,440) and touchdowns (421), making him the highest-ranking quarterback in both categories who never even sniffed a Super Bowl.

The man was indestructible. From 2006 to 2020, Rivers started every single game. That's 240 consecutive starts (plus 12 playoff games). In his 17th and final season, Rivers threw for over 250 yards per game and maintained a 68% completion percentage off an average 34 attempts per game. That stat line would still put him among the league leaders today.

Rivers was the ultimate pocket passer. He made eight Pro Bowls, won Comeback Player of the Year in 2013, and once completed 25 passes in a row during a game. He also led the league in passing yards, completion percentage, and passer rating at various points, and also led the league in interceptions twice.

The 2004 draft trade that sent him to San Diego (and Eli Manning to New York) might be the most fascinating "what if" in modern NFL history. Rivers, Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger all went in the top five that year. Two of the three have multiple Super Bowl rings.

So what happened yesterday?

It wasn’t the fairytale ending that Colts fans would have hoped for. It also wasn’t as awful as the books priced it to be. When you consider that he’s only been back in the NFL for less than a week, it was borderline miraculous.

Most significantly, Rivers threw his first touchdown pass in 1,800 days. His decision making was predictably conservative, but sound, and his accuracy wasn’t half bad either. He finished with 18 completions on 27 attempts (67%) for 120 yards and 1 touchdown. It was quickly clear that his throwing power was the first thing to go post-retirement. But hey, that’s nothing a few months in the gym can’t fix.

Ultimately, the Colts lost 18-16 without allowing a single touchdown. The Rivers experiment nearly worked out against one of the top defenses, and teams, in the league. His next potential start is under the bright lights of Monday Night Football back home in Lucas Oil Stadium.

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❄️ Monday Night Football: Dolphins at Steelers

Two teams clawing for playoff positioning. Two offenses that struggle to score. One freezing Pittsburgh night. This should be a fun one.

The Steelers are the slightly better team on paper, 13th in overall DVOA compared to Miami's 19th. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 20th in offensive efficiency, Miami's ranks 25th. Both teams average under 24 points per game.

The first mismatch comes on the ground. Miami’s rushing attacks ranks 5th in the league at 4.94 yards per carry, led by De'Von Achane, who's averaging 5.83 per carry and 86.62 rushing yards per game. During their current four-game winning streak, they're grinding out 192.3 rush yards per game, the best in the NFL.

The Steelers' run defense ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed and 29th in missed tackle rate, but their pass rush is scary. The Steelers rank 7th in sacks (34) which matters because Miami's offensive line has struggled, and Tua Tagovailoa isn't exactly comfortable under pressure. That being said, T.J. Watt is out with a lung injury which significantly weakens that pass rush.

The Cold Weather Variable

The forecast calls for temperatures around 17-18°F at kickoff in Pittsburgh and Tua Tagovailoa is historically terrible in the cold. He's 1-8 straight up in games with kickoff temps at 46°F or colder and he’s 0-5 below freezing. In sub-40°F games, his completion rate drops from 68% to 58%, his yards per attempt fall from 8.2 to 6.1, and he's thrown eight touchdowns against nine interceptions.

This has all the makings of a grinding, low-scoring slugfest. Both offenses are inefficient, both teams will lean heavily on the run, and the weather will force conservative playcalling. The Steelers have the home-field advantage and the better defense (11th in DVOA vs. Miami's 20th), but Miami's rushing attack could control the game if they establish it early.

Predictions

Steelers Moneyline (-166)

Pittsburgh is the more complete team. The Steelers' defense should be able to slow down a one-dimensional Dolphins offense in freezing conditions, and Rodgers should find enough success against Miami's awful pass defense to pull out a win.

Under 42.5 Total Points

Both offenses rank in the bottom third of the league in efficiency. Miami is run-heavy and clock-eating. Tua struggles in the cold. The Steelers' offense is anemic. Expect a lot of three-and-outs, punts, and running plays that keep the clock moving.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 After eight years, the magic finally ran out. This result was devastating in more ways than one. 

🏆️ History made at Indiana University. One finalist wasn’t so classy. 

🏀 The defending champs have been nearly unstoppable this season. The key word is nearly. 

⚽️ The “GOAT” tour landed in India. The stadium repairs are going to take a while. 

🥊 The newest UFC heavyweight just rewrote the record books. His transformation story is remarkable. 

🏈 Tagovailoa Rushing Prop for MNF

by Ed Egros

As Old Man Winter visits some of our favorite NFL venues, we can take a renewed interest in the rushing attack.  Research indicates it is harder to tackle in cold weather and easier for linemen to maintain their stamina when it comes to run blocking.  

For Instance

With snow flurries and a wind chill of 26 degrees, New England turned to TreVeyon Henderson for explosives.  He finished with 14 carries for 148 yards and two touchdowns, with a little help from his quarterback on one of those scores.  

Buffalo countered with James Cook, who rushed 22 times for 107 yards and two TDs, en route to a 35-31 victory.  And speaking of the AFC East…

Miami is a…Cold Weather Team?

Interestingly, these “run in cold weather” trends bode well for the Miami Dolphins.  Last week at the Jets with a kickoff temperature of 41 degrees, Jaylen Wright tallied 107 rushing yards and De’Von Achane added 92 yards on the ground too.  

Achane is having a phenomenal season. As Jaxon pointed out, the Dolphins’ lead running back ranks third in the NFL with more than 86 rushing yards per game and second with 16.22 Expected Points Added.  And now, if Wright is adding another dimension to this ground attack, the Dolphins suddenly become even more dangerous.

But Wait! There’s More!

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa told reporters last week: “...when an offense can just run inside zone, outside zone, counter, duo and it's at will, I think that's demoralizing for defensive players.”  In other words, it’s not just who’s toting the rock that changes this Miami offense, it’s the different schemes employed.

Monday night, these Dolphins get another chance to showcase what they can do in cold weather.  They face the Steelers in Pittsburgh where they are expected to confront freezing conditions once again.  

The cold might put the Steelers defense at a disadvantage.  Remember that point about it being tougher to tackle in cold weather?  Well, as Jaxon noted, Pittsburgh ranks 29th in the NFL in missed tackle rate (11.47%).  

How to Bet It

The obvious play may be to bet on Achane to go over his rushing prop or perhaps score a touchdown, and Jaxon certainly recommends the latter:

But, Tagovailoa said one more noteworthy thing in his news conference about what it means to have a strong running game: “I think it opens up a lot of the games where we can run keepers…”

No one is going to mistake Tagovailoa for a rushing quarterback.  The disparity between his output on the ground and his teammate are…obvious: 

But, in this environment against this opponent, now is the time to back a Tagovailoa rushing prop: 

Jaxon has Tagovailoa going over 0.5 rushing yards, and I think we’ll be in for some magic Monday night.  

Yes, the Steelers are favored by a field goal, which might mean more passing by Miami.  But, the anticipation of a pass by Pittsburgh could give Tagovailoa a lot of green grass to take off.  There are enough reasons for me to believe Miami will run the ball efficiently, especially with the quarterback helping the cause.  

🏈 Three Goal-Line Monsters Ready to Cash Your Anytime TD Tickets

by Tony Reyes

Listen, the Anytime Touchdown market is where the REAL money gets made on Monday Night Football, and I've identified three players who are absolute locks to find the end zone based on red zone usage, game script, and pure opportunity.

Let's start with the safest play on the entire board: Jaylen Warren at +104 on BetRivers.

Warren isn't just the Steelers' goal-line back; he's their entire short-yardage offense. He's recorded 28 carries inside the red zone this season and a massive 10 carries inside the 5-yard line, ranking 14th among all running backs in the league.

But here's what makes him ELITE for this bet: he's a dual threat. Warren has scored both rushing and receiving touchdowns this season, giving him multiple paths to pay off your ticket. In his last five games, he's hit the Anytime TD mark 60% of the time, and in a low-scoring, grind-it-out game where Pittsburgh will need short-yardage conversions, Warren is the absolute safest bet to score.

Now let's talk about the value play that's screaming at us: DK Metcalf at +148 on BetRivers.

These odds are RIDICULOUS given Metcalf's usage. He ranks 4th among ALL wide receivers in the league with 6 targets inside the 5-yard line this season. That's not just elite usage, that's elite TRUST from Aaron Rodgers in the most critical moments.

When playing at home this season, Metcalf has a 57.14% hit rate for scoring touchdowns, and he's coming off a monster performance last week, where he caught 7 passes for 148 yards. The Dolphins' defense ranks 19th against opposing wide receiver touchdowns, which is exactly the kind of neutral-to-favorable matchup we want for a guy with Metcalf's red zone volume.

Finally, we're targeting Jaylen Waddle at +213 on Kalshi as our highest-upside play.

With Tyreek Hill on IR, Waddle commands a massive 24% target share and has 4 targets inside the 5-yard line this season. But here's the kicker: when playing away from home, Waddle has a 66.67% hit rate for scoring touchdowns. He's the undisputed focal point of Miami's passing attack, and even in a run-heavy game, his volume gives him multiple opportunities to find the end zone.

Three touchdown scorers, three different value propositions, all built for Monday night.

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