Orlando holds a 3-1 series lead over Detroit, and it seems like everyone is starting to pay attention to what might be one of the more remarkable upsets in recent NBA playoff history.

The Pistons won 60 games this season. They finished second in the league in both net rating and defensive rating. They were supposed to dismantle an eighth-seeded Magic team that ranked 17th in offensive efficiency and barely squeaked into the postseason. Through four games, Orlando leads the series and has covered the spread in three of the four games.

Make no mistake, this is not a fluke built on hot shooting or lucky bounces. For starters, Orlando is protecting the ball better than Detroit. In Game 4, the Magic committed 12 turnovers compared to Detroit's 20, with Cade Cunningham alone responsible for eight of them. That is not a sustainable rate for a team trying to climb out of a 3-1 hole, and Orlando's defense has been great at causing chaos.

The interior battle has been equally telling. Orlando won the battle in the paint by 20 points in Game 1, Detroit flipped that margin in their lone win in Game 2, but the Pistons have been held below 38% from the field in the games they have lost. Detroit's offensive ceiling is absolutely higher than what they have shown in this series, but Orlando’s defense has risen to the challenge. The question is whether Detroit can hit their ceiling with their season on the line.

Game 5 is in Detroit, and the Pistons are currently double-digit favorites at home. That number feels disconnected from what the series has actually looked like. The +10.5 is worth a look.

Detroit has failed to reach their team scoring total in all four games and fell short of those projections by an average of more than 13 points per game. The total score has finished under the betting line by an average of 19 points per game.

If Orlando wins Wednesday night, they become only the seventh eighth seed in NBA history to eliminate a first seed. The Magic faithful have not had much to celebrate in recent years, but this team has earned every bit of the moment they are chasing.

🏆️ First basket props hit different in the playoffs

The stakes are higher, the rotations tighter, and the right read can cash big. Don't guess. Use the data.

Pine's First Basket Sheet gives you everything you need before tipoff:

Tip Win % – See which teams control the opening possession
1st FG Attempt % – Know who's getting the first look
1st FG Made % – Track who actually converts when it matters

🏀Props for a Loaded Playoff Slate

We covered the Orlando-Detroit situation but there is one prop on that game worth adding before we move on.

Paolo Banchero Over 12.5 Assists and Rebounds (-130)

Banchero ranks in the 98th percentile in total rebounds among forwards and facilitates at an elite rate with a 28.9% usage. Detroit ranks 20th in defensive rebounding and Banchero is positioned to clean them up consistently.

In seven matchups this season against the Pistons, he has hit this line in five of them. With Franz Wagner's availability uncertain, his playmaking and rebounding responsibilities only expand in a potential clinching game. Take it and move on.

The rest of Wednesday's slate has a couple more spots that we identified by running the matchup data through Jaxon.

Jarrett Allen Under 10.5 Assists and Rebounds (-130)

This series is tied 2-2 and heading back to Cleveland, where the Cavaliers have been dominant all postseason. Allen had a 15-rebound outlier performance in Game 4, but his assist contribution in this series has been minimal, averaging 0.4 per game over his last five outings.

Toronto's defense packs the paint and swarms bigs specifically to limit their playmaking, ranking eighth in the league against centers for assists. Regression toward eight or nine rebounds combined with near-zero assists makes clearing 10.5 combined a low-probability outcome. The under at -122 is the play.

Marcus Smart Over 4.5 Assists (+114)

Los Angeles leads this series 3-1 and returns home for a potential closeout game, but the more interesting story is what Marcus Smart has become in this offense without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. He has cleared 4.5 assists in every single game over the last five contests, averaging 8.0 per game. In this series against Houston, he’s posted 8, 7, 10, and 5 assists across four games.

With LeBron drawing defensive attention and the Lakers leaning on their half-court efficiency, Smart is the primary facilitator holding the offense together. Getting plus money on this spot is pure value.

🌲 The Pine Line

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🏒 How to Start Betting on Conn Smythe Odds

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Now that a couple of teams have advanced to the next round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it’s a great time to take a look at the Conn Smythe market, awarded to the most outstanding player of the playoffs.  

It’s an important distinction compared with other postseason awards because the chances are higher that we’ll have that awkward moment of the winner coming from the losing team.

First Look

As expected, the top two players on the board on Kalshi belong to the Colorado Avalanche, who get to rest before their next playoff series.  

Center Nathan MacKinnon is already becoming a sizable favorite, with a probability greater than 25% at last check.  The skater who finished the regular season as the scoring champion has carried that success into the playoffs with four points in four games.

Just behind him with a 10% probability is Cale Makar, one of the greatest scoring defensemen we’ve ever seen.

Who Wins the Award?

Of the 60 times the trophy has been handed out, 21 out of 60 times (35%) the winner was a center.  28% of the time it was a goalie, 20% defenseman, and the remainder went to wingers.  Typically the most famous and successful are centers and netminders, so there may not be much of a position strength when handicapping.

What About First Round Success?

If you look at the last four Conn Smythe winners and the teams they come from, they all won their first-round series in five games or fewer.  Not only did their team make their playoff run as efficient as possible, those winners got off to hot starts immediately.

For instance, Sam Bennett for Florida was last year’s winner and tallied five points in five games in the Panthers’ first-round series win over Tampa Bay.

Early Betting Advice

It makes a ton of sense to back the leaders for the Avalanche.  But, for a longshot, I recommend Tage Thompson of Buffalo.  The team may not be as established as Carolina or Colorado, but they’ve played almost as well as anyone, so back their leading scorer.

Other Playoff Action

Until the Conn Smythe is awarded, there’s still a ton of playoff action happening Wednesday.  Here are a couple of bets Jaxon and I like:

Penguins ML at Flyers (+102)

If you took our advice and sprinkled a little on rollover bets on Pittsburgh to complete the comeback, you’re still in good shape.  Keep it going.

The Penguins’ penalty kill has been outstanding.  They’ve limited Philadelphia to just three high-danger shots on goal in five contests.  For a unit that relies on shooting a lot, the Flyers have few answers after being this stifled.

Don’t be dissuaded by the Penguins being on the road, Sidney Crosby and company can take over Game 6.

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