‘81’ has been a mark of greatness before. Kobe’s 81-point masterpiece. Terrell Owens wore 81 throughout his NFL career, as did several other Hall of Fame players. Marian Hossa lifted the Stanley Cup three times in Chicago wearing ‘81’.

Last night gave ‘81’ a new story. The combined age of both starting Quarterbacks. Only once in the Super Bowl Era, when Brady met Brees in 2020, have two 40+ year-old quarterbacks faced off. Flacco and Rodgers can add their names to that list.

And…they put on one heck of a show.

The “Icy Hot Bowl” wasn’t just a great watch, it was a statistical oddity. Both QBs threw for Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns something that’s only happened 16 times over the last two seasons, six this year. When you add in that both teams also ran for 140+ Yards as a team, this is only the 8th game in a decade with that stat line. The first since 2022.

What made this game entirely unique was that not a single point was scored on the ground, by either side, despite a total of 64 points. This was truly a one-of-a-kind football game. The two 40+ year old QBs ran the field last night, trading shots from start to finish, and reminded everyone what an entertaining Thursday Night Football game looks like.

🤖 Jaxon Just Got Smarter

Jaxon taps into advanced analytics to break down every NFL matchup with even greater precision.

Your gut < basic trends < advanced analytics.

It's a data-driven league, but you don't need a data science degree to get the analysis pro handicappers rely on.

📈 Team Stats → Efficiency metrics and situational data
👤 Player Stats → Usage and opportunity info
💰️ Value Stats → Spot advanced stat mismatches

Here is an example using DVOA to spot high value Underdog Moneyline picks.

🏈 Week 7 Best Bets

by Tony Reyes

Betting on Pats -13.5 (+185): The case for a revenge game rout

Mike Vrabel is going back to Nashville. And he's bringing a HAMMER. The Patriots are 4-2. The Titans are 1-5 and falling apart.

This isn't just a mismatch. It's a statement game. Let's start with what the Titans can't do...

Score.

Tennessee ranks 31st in points per game at 13.8. They're DEAD LAST in offensive DVOA at -33.4%. Their completion percentage? 54.95%—worst in the NFL. They put up 225 total yards in their last game. That's not a typo. They're BROKEN. Now let's talk about what the Patriots do best...

Stop the run.

New England ranks 3rd in the league, allowing just 3.46 yards per carry. That forces Tennessee into passing situations, which is EXACTLY where they fall apart. The Titans can't throw. The Patriots won't let them run. Game over.

But here's where it gets ugly for Tennessee...

Their run defense ranks 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed. They're giving up 1.83 rushing TDs per game. The Patriots are going to run the ball down their throat all game long. Clock management. Touchdowns. Rinse and repeat. And then there's Drake Maye.

Maye is ranked as a top-5 fantasy QB this season. He's 2nd in completion percentage and 3rd in yards per attempt. When New England needs to throw, they can. Efficiently.

The narrative writes itself:

Vrabel was FIRED by the Titans just over a year ago. Now he's coming back with a team that's 4-2 and tied for first in the AFC East. This is a "hammer-drop opportunity," and the data says the Patriots are going to BURY them.

The bottom line?

The Titans can't score. The Patriots can't be stopped. The spread is 13.5 points, and at +185 odds, you're getting PAID for a two-touchdown victory.

Patriots -13.5 at +185 on BetMGM.

Why Falcons +2.5 is the Top Value Bet on Sunday Night Football

The market got this one WRONG. And the sharp models are screaming at us. The 49ers are favored by 2.5 points at home. But the analytics say the Falcons should be favored by 3.1 points.

That's a 5.6-point value differential.

That's one of the BIGGEST mispricings on the entire Week 7 slate. Let's talk about why this line is so far off...

The 49ers are DECIMATED by injuries. Nick Bosa? Out for the season. Fred Warner? Out for the season. Brandon Aiyuk? Out. Brock Purdy? Questionable.

Warner's loss is MASSIVE. He was the anchor of that defense against tight ends and running backs. Without him, the 49ers have generated ZERO pass rush over the last four weeks—ranking 29th in pressure rate.

And the Falcons are built to exploit it.

Atlanta 29th the NFL in rushing yards per game at 151.2. They're going to pound the rock all night long, control the clock, and keep San Francisco's offense off the field. But here's where it gets even better...

The Falcons defense ranks 1st in the league in defensive DVOA. They're allowing just 173.4 passing yards per game—best in the NFL. They're 2nd in opponent completion percentage at 57.69%.

The 49ers offense is elite when healthy, but with a depleted roster and facing THIS defense? They're going to struggle.

Now let's talk about the historical edge...

Underdogs in the Falcons-49ers series played in San Francisco are on a 7-2 ATS surge. The Falcons are 4-1 in their last five prime-time games, including 2-0 this season. They're coming off a HUGE upset win over the Bills. Momentum is on their side.

And here's the safety net:

You're getting +2.5 points at -112 odds on DraftKings. If the Falcons win outright, you cash. If San Francisco wins by 1 or 2 points, you STILL cash.

The analytics say Atlanta should be FAVORED, which means getting them as 2.5-point underdogs is a VALUE you can't ignore.

The bottom line?

The 49ers are broken. The Falcons are surging. The sharp models say this line is mispriced by nearly six points. You're getting a team that should be favored as a 2.5-point underdog at -112.

Falcons +2.5 on DraftKings.

 🌲 The Pine Line

🏈 Week 7 Touchdown Scorers are in. See who has an edge to find the endzone on Sunday. 

🩹 Are you keeping track of all the injuries? It’s getting hard to name a healthy team. 

🏀 It’s been twenty-three years since the league tipped off without him. Even on the sidelines, he’ll still be the story.

😢 The Dolphins are falling apart on the field. Their Quarterback is starting his apology tour. 

⚽️ Smallest nation ever to qualify. This tiny island’s World Cup dream is finally happening.

🤑 If your career isn’t trending like Curt Cignetti’s, maybe start talking more trash. Seems to work.

🏈 Player Prop Plays for Week 7

The Week 7 player prop board is stacked with opportunities. We've identified five spots where the data doesn't match the lines set for this weekend. From Dallas' stout passing game, to Atlanta's number 1 ranked rushing game, let's break down our favorite bets. 

Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

 Dak Prescott is quietly having one of the best starts of his career. He ranks second in the league in passing touchdowns (13) and has thrown for multiple scores in two-thirds of his games. Despite CeeDee Lamb sitting out, Dak has thrown 3+ TDs without an interception in three consecutive games. At home, he’s been flawless, averaging 2.5 TDs and clearing this line every time. With a projected total of 54.5 and a Commanders defense that can be exploited through the air, all signs point to another big night for Dak. I like this play that much more if CeeDee is back on the field.

Tetairoa McMillan Over 52.5 Receiving Yards

 McMillan is becoming Bryce Young’s go-to option. He’s averaging over 63 yards per game and has hit the over in every road matchup this season, averaging nearly 77 yards away from home. With Carolina’s run game forcing the Jets to stack the box, expect McMillan to find soft spots in coverage downfield.

Tetairoa scored his 1st (and 2nd) career touchdowns last week against Dallas even though he only had 3 catches for 29 yards. I like him to find the endzone again this week against the Jets. 

Don’t forget your Survivor Pool!

Our Survivor Pick series is in the hunt this weekend despite 80% of the starting field already busting the season. Are you riding with us this week? Check out our picks every Wednesday on Pine Sports.