Before we dive into World Cup quarterfinal matches, there are a few interesting MLB spots to look into. Based on starting pitcher stats, park factors, and opposing batting stats, Jaxon helped to identify games that are likely to go over expected hit and run totals.

The Cubs take on the Reds at Great American Ball Park with the highest home run factor on today's slate at 118. Hunter Greene was turning into a strong pitcher before elbow surgery last year, but has surrendered five home runs to current Cubs hitters across 99 career at-bats. Seiya Suzuki has been his most persistent problem, hitting .444 against him with two home runs.

On the other side, Shota Imanaga faces a Reds lineup that has been scorching recently, with Spencer Steer hitting .500 against him and Matt McLain posting a .502 expected wOBA. Both pitchers carry walk rates above 10% against these rosters, and in a park that turns fly balls into home runs, that combination gets expensive quickly.

Globe Life Field isn't typically a hitter's paradise, but the pitching matchup between the Astros and Rangers overrides the park factors today. Texas starter Cal Quantrill has a .302 career batting average allowed against the current Houston roster and a .390 wOBA. His strikeout rate against this group sits at just 9.3%, which means balls are going into play at a high rate.

Christian Walker is hitting .444 against him in 18 career plate appearances with two home runs and a .584 wOBA, and Yordan Alvarez carries a .472 xwOBA against Quantrill despite going 1 for 7. Walker has recorded a hit in five straight games and 70% of his last ten.

Finally, Nationals Park ranks seventh in offensive production this season with a 104 runs factor, and it suppresses strikeouts at a 94 factor. Ryan Weathers leads the Yankees into Washington with a .320 career average against the current Washington roster.

CJ Abrams is hitting .333 against him specifically with just 1 strikeout in 6 at bats. Weathers has allowed 16 home runs this season in 17 games but could add to that total today.

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⚽️ Winner Faces France on Bastille Day

Spain and Belgium meet in the quarterfinals Friday, and the contrast in styles couldn't be sharper.

Spain has not conceded a single goal in five World Cup matches. Five clean sheets, nine goals scored, and a defensive structure built around Rodri recycling possession in the midfield and a backline that simply doesn't give up high-quality looks.

Against Portugal in the Round of 16, Spain completed 88.1% of their passes, generated 15 shots, and won 1-0 on a Mikel Merino goal in the 91st minute. Unai Simón was barely tested, making two saves. Lamine Yamal had three shots and was a persistent threat all match. This team wins by controlling tempo until the opponent breaks, and it seems like they always break.

Belgium just dismantled the United States 4-1 and enter this game on an 18-match unbeaten run. What makes them dangerous is their efficiency without the ball. Against the US, Belgium held just 44.1% possession and generated 15 shots, seven on target, converting at a remarkable rate. Belgium has shown several times this tournament that they do not need to dominate a game to win it. They need two or three moments of inspiration, and they've been delivering exactly that.

One complication for Belgium is Onana's injury. He's their defensive anchor in midfield, and losing him against a Spain side that averaged 55% possession in their last match is a real structural problem. Vanaken is a quality player, but Rodri and Pedri can pick apart a makeshift midfield pairing.

Two angles worth considering here. Spain is unlikely to concede. Their defensive metrics across five matches are historically good, making them a strong pick to win or draw with a clean sheet. Belgium's counter-attacking efficiency and that 18-game unbeaten run earns respect. With Spain's suffocating structure, under 2.5 goals at this stage of the tournament is the play that makes the most sense.

🌲 The Pine Line

🤯 Eight years in the minors, plagued by injuries and surgeries. Valencia’s first MLB at-bat was worth the wait.

🏆️ The World Cup just became the biggest event in prediction market history. The final hasn’t even happened yet.

💵 Something big is brewing in Texas. This could shatter league records, and the team budget.

🧱 Zach Allen just made a bold prediction for the Broncos’ defense. He’s talking about making history.

🤕 Everyone is taking inventory of injuries after elimination. The USMNT star may have suffered the most.

⚽️ Doubleheader World Cup Action this Weekend

Box office drama continues in the World Cup on Saturday to determine the last two semifinal participants.

England vs. Norway

Norway is making their first quarterfinal appearance in team history after beating Brazil 2-1, and the main reason is obvious. Erling Haaland has seven goals in four appearances at this tournament and has scored in 14 consecutive competitive matches for his country and a total of 27 goals across that streak. England know this better than anyone, with several of their defenders facing him regularly in the Premier League.

England is walking into this match banged up. Jarell Quansah is suspended for two games following his red card against Mexico. Marc Guéhi, the defender most familiar with Haaland, is a significant doubt with a hamstring issue. Declan Rice has missed back-to-back training sessions with illness compounding an existing physical concern in his hamstring and lower back.

England won their last match with ten men in one of the tournament's most dramatic games, and they're now potentially without their best center-back and their midfield shield simultaneously.

Tuchel's side has shown great character by beating Mexico from a goal down and while shorthanded. Bellingham and Kane remain capable of producing in any environment. Over 30,000 England supporters are expected in Miami, but Haaland against a depleted backline is a deeply uncomfortable matchup, and Norway's system is specifically built to get him the ball in dangerous positions.

I’m backing Norway to keep it tight and Haaland anytime goalscorer.

Argentina vs. Switzerland

Argentina has now won back-to-back knockout matches after trailing by two goals with fifteen minutes remaining. They’re the first team in World Cup history to do that. The 39-year old Messi has scored in every one of their matches. While impressive, they've conceded four goals across their last two games, and Egypt found the net twice on just five total shots, suggesting Argentina can be vulnerable to quality chances on the counter.

Switzerland held Colombia scoreless through 120 minutes, has conceded only three goals all tournament, and Gregor Kobel has been one of the best goalkeepers in the field with 13 saves. The wildcard is Johan Manzambi, their 20-year-old forward who has five goal contributions this tournament. Switzerland has scored just once in 322 minutes without him. If he's limited by the knee injury that kept him out of the Round of 16, the Swiss path to a goal becomes extremely narrow.

Argentina to advance, but expect Switzerland to keep it tight.

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