🏆One Game. Winner Goes to the Finals.

Only 4 WCF Game 7s in recent history, plus find out if Montreal still has a chance

Author

Ian Maclin
May 29, 2026

There have been exactly four Game 7s in the Western Conference Finals in the 21st century. Two of those Game 7s were won by the Lakers (‘00 and ‘02) and the others were won by the Golden State Warriors (‘16 and ‘18). Two of them were won by the home team and two were won on the road.

The 2016 edition saw Oklahoma City hold a 3-1 series lead before the Warriors rallied to complete one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history. The 2018 version ended with Chris Paul injured on the sideline and the Rockets missing a historic 27 consecutive threes while the Warriors overcame a double-digit deficit to win on the road in Houston.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 31.1 points per game this season with a plus-minus of +11.6, the best mark in the league. He is playing the most efficient basketball of his career and just won his second consecutive MVP award. Victor Wembanyama leads the league in blocks, ranks in the 100th percentile in rim protection, and has been the most disruptive defensive presence by a significant margin. His plus-minus of +10.7 per game trails only SGA among players still alive in the playoffs.

The Spurs need to win on the road Saturday night to reach the NBA Finals. History is not particularly encouraging on that front. While it’s a coinflip in recent WCF history, home teams win approximately 74% of Game 7s in NBA playoff history. Oklahoma City went 34-7 at home this regular season and the atmosphere will surely be as intense as anything the postseason has produced so far.

What San Antonio has on their side is the fact that road Game 7 wins have happened in every one of the last eleven postseasons. The Cavaliers and 76ers both pulled it off earlier in these playoffs. The Spurs have already stolen games in hostile environments during this run and they have the one player capable of altering a game in ways that others just can’t.

One game. Winner goes to the Finals. It does not get better than this.

⚾ Home Run Cheat Sheet

Pine’s Home Run Sheet gives you everything you need to find the best bets before first pitch:

Projections & Odds – See Jaxon's HR projection alongside live over/under odds
Hit Rate – Track how often each player has gone deep over their last ten games and more
Confidence Score – Know which plays Jaxon likes most at a glance

Click on any player to view detailed stats!

🏀 Player Props for WCF Game 7

Tomorrow night the NY Knicks will find out who they face in the NBA Finals next week. Two props stand out for this winner-take-all matchup between two Western Conference powerhouses.

Fox has cashed this play in every game this series since returning from injury, posting combined totals of 13, 15, 12 and 12 assists+rebounds across those four appearances. His last five games show a 100% hit rate and his season average across 87 games sits at 9.99. Against Oklahoma City specifically this season, he has hit this prop in nearly 80% of matchups while averaging 11.22 combined.

Rotations shorten in elimination games, ball-handlers see more possessions, and Fox has been the most reliable distributor on the Spurs' roster. His ankle injury is keeping him from driving the lane like he might want to and he is finding the open pass more instead. The Thunder are not an elite defensive rebounding team, and Fox ranks in the 78th percentile for rebounds among point guards. Expect him to put it all on the line for Game 7.

Holmgren grabbed 11 boards in Game 6 and has been steadily asserting himself on the glass more as this series has progressed. In the first three games he averaged just 5 rebounds per game. In Games 4 through 6 that number doubled to 10.3 rebounds. Over his last ten games across the season he has cashed this line 70% of the time while averaging exactly 8.5, and over his last fifteen his average rises to 8.87.

The home context matters here too. In 41 home games this season, Holmgren hit this line in nearly 61% of games while averaging 9.41 per game. Game 7 is in Oklahoma City. San Antonio ranks 18th in defending bigs on the glass, a middle-of-the-road mark that does not present the kind of resistance needed to hold down a player like Holmgren.

Did I mention it’s plus odds? Keep an eye on the battle on the boards in Game 7!

🌲 The Pine Line

🎰 One of the biggest casino empires is changing hands. The most powerful name in hospitality just got bigger.

🏒 The NHL lost a legend on Thursday. The circumstances make this one especially tough to swallow.

⚽️ Nobody has ever played in 6 World Cups. That will change on June 16th in Kansas City.

👋 Waived for the second time in a month. Rough year for the former first round pick.

🚿 This was one of tennis’ stranger collapses. He was only one game away from advancing.

🏒 Carolina's Historic Defense Has Them One Win Away

by Ed Egros 👉️ Follow on X @EdWithSports

Because one Conference Final ended with a sweep, we have some time to look up fun stats before we lock in our Stanley Cup Final bets.  When thumbing through morehockeystats.com, I came across another reason to be in awe of the Carolina Hurricanes.

A Shut-Down Defense

The site tracks the deadliest pairs in the NHL, or skaters who score the most goals off of each other’s assists.  

Leading the way this past regular season were Montreal’s Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, combining for 23 goals.  

What has Carolina done through four games in its series against the Canadiens?  Limit Suzuki to zero goals on ten shots and Caufield to one goal on six shots.

Not Without Trying

According to Natural Stat Trick, on 5v5 hockey, Caufield has gotten a total of 14 high danger corsi for shots (shots + blocks + misses) in this series, while Suzuki has recorded 13 of these shots. Even when the looks are good, they’re getting stonewalled.

For perspective, Carolina’s Taylor Hall has 21 high danger corsi for.  The Canes are already generating more shots at the net, but even the good ones the leaders are generating aren’t lighting the lamp.

Frederik Andersen Standing on his Head

After that Game 4 performance, how can you not marvel at what Frederik Andersen has done these playoffs?

Among goalies who have played at least four games these playoffs, Andersen ranks third by MoneyPuck in high-danger save rate (0.824).  He also ranks fourth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (0.742) out of 17 netminders.  

Even in situations when the games are close, Andersen’s 0.974 save rate ranks third among all playoff goalies.

One of the better playoff runs we’ve ever seen is due in part to elite goaltending.

Do the Canadiens Have Any Hope?

It sure seems like Montreal will succumb to one more thrashing after manufacturing just 18 shots on goal, at home, trailing for more than 57 minutes of the entire hockey game.  As -240 favorites on FanDuel, there’s not much value on the moneyline, but there’s no value on the underdog either.

However, with all of this defense talk, there is one safe play this analysis is pointing toward:

Game 5: Under 5.5 Goals (-100)

In these playoffs, Carolina has proven they can play with a lead.  Whether it’s drawing penalties or controlling the puck, a one-to-two goal cushion means the Canadiens won’t be able to manufacture much offense.  

If you’ve been watching, you can tell Montreal is coming off consecutive grueling seven-game series, while Carolina looks much fresher having only played 12 playoff games.  

They’ll take a lead, shut it down, and get ready for Vegas next week.

That trend means defensemen get to spend more time in the O-zone.  Finding value in Carolina player props means backing defensemen you may not expect to try and score.  That’s perfect reasoning to back Jaccob Slavin to get at least two shots on goal.

Bet smarter, not harder.

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